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COVID-19 STATS

Italy’s health institute says 18 regions are moderate risk for Covid-19

The circulation of the Delta variant is now largely prevalent in Italy and most of the country's regions have been classified as moderate epidemic risk, according to Italian health authorities.

Italy’s health institute says 18 regions are moderate risk for Covid-19
Photo by MIGUEL MEDINA / AFP

The weekly incidence at a national level has showed a further slight increase in coronavirus cases, according to the latest health data by Italy’s Higher Health Institute.

On a national level, the incidence rate – the weekly cases of infection per 100,000 inhabitants – remains above the low-risk threshold of 50.

18 regions have been classified as moderate risk, with Lazio and the autonomous provinces of Bolzano and Trento the only regions to be categorised as low risk.

READ ALSO: Which parts of Italy could be declared Covid risk zones in August?

Puglia, Sicily and Tuscany – while in the moderate ranking – have been identified as the regions with high probability of progressing to increased risk levels.

But this classification isn’t the full picture when it comes to deciding which regions move into the various tiers of restrictions – a moderate epidemiological risk classification alone doesn’t mean a region would lose its ‘white zone’ status.

Sardinia and Sicily are two regions that could move into a low-moderate risk ‘yellow zone’ in the coming weeks: they have both recorded rates of infections and hospitalisations which approach the threshold for new anti-Covid measures to be imposed.

Photo by Andreas SOLARO / AFP

They almost meet the parameters set when a region will move from ‘white’ to a ‘yellow’ zone:

  • The incidence of weekly cases of infection per 100,000 inhabitants is between 50 and 150;
  • The occupancy rate of intensive care units exceeds 10 percent and;
  • Occupancy reaches 15 percent in the case of general hospital wards.

All three have to be met at the same time for a region’s risk status to be upgraded.

Meanwhile, the first localised ‘red zones’ for months were declared in two municipalities in the southern region of Calabria.

On a national level, the incidence rate is increasing with 73 cases per 100,000 inhabitants compared to 68 last week. The lowest weekly cases are in Molise with 20.9.

The report found that the current impact of Covid-19 on hospitals is “limited”, but occupancy rates and the number of people admitted to both general wards intensive care are increasing.

No region or province exceeds the critical threshold of occupancy of beds in general wards and intensive care – although the ICU occupancy rate is slightly increasing, now at 4 percent.

The report also pointed to the effectiveness of vaccinations, with 96.8 percent coverage against Covid-related deaths among those vaccinated versus unvaccinated.

Covid-19: Italy says 70 percent of population vaccinated with first dose is ‘comforting’

“Higher vaccination coverage and the completion of vaccination cycles are the main tools to prevent further recurrences [of cases]”, stated the ISS.

“Extensive case tracking and containment should be carried out, attention should be kept high and measures and behaviour should be implemented and enforced to limit further increases in virus circulation,” it added.

Deputy heath secretary Andrea Costa told news channel La7, “It is not a coincidence that in regions with lower numbers of vaccinated there is a risk of yellow zone – there is a direct link,” reported news agency Ansa.

The data shows “that the islands where there is a delay in the vaccination cycle, should make us think about how important it is to vaccinate,” he added.

On Friday, Italy recorded 7,409 new cases and 45 new deaths – an increase from yesterday’s 7,270 cases and 30 deaths. The positivity rate has slightly increased to 3.28 percent

Italy has confirmed 127,476 coronavirus-related deaths in total.

Member comments

  1. I’m sorry but these restrictions are ridiculous. At the beginning of the pandemic, deaths as a percentage of infections were very high. Now, because of the natural course of respiratory bugs and because of vaccines, deaths as a percentage of infections are very low. It is about the same as the good old flu. Governments need to stop acting like we never lived with risk before, or like the natural state of the world is to exist without risk. To be alive on this earth is to live with risk. If governments were so concerned with saving life and mitigating risk why don’t they institute a maximum speed limit on all highways of 50 km/h? What if they just said you can’t drive faster than 30 mph and called it the new “normal?” We’d all have to accept that we have to add a little more time to our planning and in 10 years literally millions of lives would be saved.

  2. Poor comparison using the risk of driving. Car accidents are not transmissible to numerous people, who in turn spread it. The same goes for all those other ailments people like to use as comparisons, such as heart disease, diabetes etc. COVID-19 is not the same as the “good old flu”. “The World Health Organization estimates that 290,000 to 650,000 people die of flu-related causes every year worldwide.” In 18 months worldwide 4,357,277 people have died of covid, those figures don’t even come close, especially when there is a school of thought that figure is underestimated. Then there are the 206,879,108 who have had covid. Of those 206,879,108 think about how many thousands, have been left battling with living with long covid for over 12 months with no end in sight.

    1. It is the same in the sense that the point of the restrictions is to save lives. It is also a good comparison as at least 50% of the road deaths are of people who were not at fault. Many die on the road because of other irresponsible drivers. Just as contracting a disease because people have decided to not live in a cave isn’t the person’s fault who gets sick. Reducing the speed limit would save lives. In fact, if it was reduced and kept that way, 20 years from now when COVID is just a memory, the new reduced speed limits would still be saving millions of lives. The vast majority of the 4 million deaths to covid happened before vaccines during the first two waves. In no way do I think that restrictions shouldn’t have been enacted at that time to prevent 2x maybe 3x maybe 4x deaths. I’m ok with that. The point is that now, with the vaccination rates that Europe is at and the US is at the deaths are nowhere near what they were at the beginning of the pandemic. In the UK where there are anywhere from 30 to 130 deaths a day right now they are starting off the Premier League with packed stadiums, as they should be in my opinion. This despite the information floating around the internet about how you can still spread it even if you’ve been vaccinated. Other countries with less deaths are still not letting stadiums fill up. So there is no standard, just whatever the government decides is an acceptable risk. At some point we have to ask how much risk are we ok with and how much restriction are we ok with. Clearly you are not ok with a 30 mph speed limit.

      1. Don’t disagree restrictions should be lifted with vaccinations. That being said, only when health officials have deemed it so. Restrictions should be in place until they have calculated it is no longer a risk to the greater community, to protect those who have not had the opportunity to be sufficiently vaccinated or those who cannot be vaccinated. Whether that be in the form of certain percentage of people who are fully vaccinated, had one shot, or a date in the future.

        It will be interesting to see how Europe copes with the coming winter.

        Too many people focus on the deaths which appear to be less with the vaccines in circulation, not enough thought is given to all those who will potentially be left suffering with long covid, with lifting restrictions before sufficiently are fully vaccinated.

        Still feel you’re grasping at straws with your analogies.

        Never the twain shall meet.

        1. Not grasping. I understand driving and viruses are different things. They are the same though in that restrictions on how we live our lives regarding either of them can potentially save lives or put more lives in danger. Innocent people die on the roads when the speed limits are increased. Innocent people die in pandemics where restrictions are eased. Seems pretty clear the analogy. Driving is in fact just one area where we could save lives. There are potentially hundreds of aspects of the way we choose to live our lives that could be changed and have the end result of saving lives. We live with the risk though because there is a balance between having a life worth living and being safe and protected at all times. I’m guessing you’d be in favor of wearing masks from here on out, even when covid is gone, to protect from the flu or any other bugs? What if wearing a mask is introducing its own new risks? What if distancing and masking and sanitizing actually weakens our immune systems and makes us more susceptible to other bugs? What if viewing other human beings as potential vectors of disease and threat isn’t actually good for our minds? What if the exponential increase in alcoholism ends up causing all kinds of health problems down the road? What if small businesses going out of business, massively increasing depressions and the largest transfer of wealth from the middle class to the upper class in centuries turns out to be bad for the majority of peoples pocket books and health?

    2. After the spreading of covid we’ve already seen, and after the vaccines that have already been administered, the death to infection percentage at this point is much closer to the flu than it was at the beginning of the pandemic. Don’t mistake me for thinking covid wasn’t more dangerous than the flu. It was. It just isn’t anymore.

    3. It is a good comparison in that the problem with covid is not that it is transmissible, it is that it comes with a high death to transmission ratio. The cold spreads like crazy but comes with a low death to transmission ratio. The problem is the deaths.

      1. In this analogy, long covid relates to people who don’t die in car crashes but are maimed. Lower the speed limit, less people maimed.

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COVID-19

Germany’s weekly Covid infection rate rises above 500

Germany recorded a weekly Covid incidence of more than 500 per 100,000 people on Monday as health experts warn that the fifth wave of the pandemic has only just begun.

Bar in Berlin's Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg district, which has the highest incidence in the country.
People sit outside bars in the Berlin district of Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, where incidences are currently the highest in the country. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Christophe Gateau

On Monday, the 7-day incidence of Covid infections per 100,000 people stood at 528, up from 515 the day before and 376 a week ago. 

Infections have been rising rapidly as the highly transmissible Omicron variant tightens its hold in Germany. Monday marked the fourth day in a row in which the country posted record incidences.

Since the first incidence of the variant was discovered in the country around seven weeks ago, Omicron has swiftly taken over as the dominant variant in Germany.

It currently accounts for around 73 percent of Covid infections and is expected to almost entirely replace the Delta variant this week. 

Though Omicron generally causes a less severe illness than Delta, experts are concerned that deaths and hospitalisations could remain high due to the unprecedented number of cases Germany could see.

Unlike Delta, Omicron has a large number of mutations that allow it to evade previously built up immunity through vaccinations and illness. 

The World Health Organisation has warned that half of all Europeans could be infected with the virus by spring. 

“After the temporary decline in case numbers, severe disease courses and deaths towards the end of 2021 in the fourth wave, the fifth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic has begun in Germany with the dominant circulation of the omicron variant,” the Robert Koch Institute wrote in its weekly report on Thursday.  

Since the first Omicron case was discovered in Germany, there have been 191,422 suspected or proven cases of the variant.

As Welt data journalist Olaf Gersemann pointed out in Twitter, the number of Omicron cases has increased sixfold within a fortnight. 

Increase in hospitalisations

Before this weekend, Germany had hit its previous peak of infections back in November, when the country posted a 7-day incidence of 485 per 100,000 people at during the peak of the fourth wave.

Since then, Covid measures such contact restrictions and blanket 2G (entry only for the vaccinated and recovered) or 2G-plus (vaccinated or recovered with a negative test) have been relatively effective at turning the tide. 

READ ALSO:

For the past few weeks however, infections have been on the up once again as the Omicron fifth wave begins.

The incidence of hospitalisations in the country appears to also be on the rise again after a few weeks of decline. On Friday, the 7-day incidence of hospitalisations stood at 3.24 per 100,000 people, up from 3.13 the day before.

Over the weekend, Health Minister Karl Lauterbach warned that Omicron could place additional pressure on the general hospital wards as fewer people end up in intensive care. 

“Depending on how things develop, we may face shortages not only in the intensive care units, but also in the normal wards. There is a threat of entire departments being closed,” he said.

“Rapid spread of the virus would mean hundreds of thousands will become seriously ill and we will have to mourn many thousands of deaths again.” 

Karl Lauterbach

Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD) speaks at a weekly press conference on Friday, January 14th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Kay Nietfeld
 

Northern states post record incidences

Since the start of the Omicron wave, northern Germany has been disproportionately affected by the virus.

As of Monday, the city-state of Bremen had the highest incidence in the country, with 1389 new cases per 100,000 people recorded in a week.

This was followed by Berlin, which currently has a 7-day incidence of 948, and Hamburg, which recorded a 7-day incidence of 806. The district with the highest incidence in Berlin Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, which posted a weekly incidence of 1597 on Monday. 

In contrast to the fourth wave, the lowest Covid incidences were recorded in the eastern states of Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt and Saxony. 

On Monday, Thuringia had a weekly incidence of 198 per 100,000 people, while Saxony’s incidence was 249 and Saxony-Anhalt’s was 280.

Somewhat inexplicably, the incidence has been declining in Thuringia in recent weeks, though there is speculation that this could be to do with the fact that Omicron has not yet spread in the state.

Nine of the sixteen German states have incidences of more than 500 per 100,000 people. 

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