Why Europe could be headed for pandemic ‘endgame’

The Omicron variant has moved the Covid-19 pandemic into a new phase and could bring it to an end in Europe, the WHO Europe director said on Monday.

People queue outside a pharmacy to receive Covid-19 antigenic tests
People queue outside a pharmacy to receive Covid-19 antigenic tests on January 10, 2022 in Marseille, southern France, as Covid-19 cases soar in Europe. (Photo by Nicolas TUCAT / AFP)

“It’s plausible that the region is moving towards a kind of pandemic endgame,” Hans Kluge told AFP in an interview, adding that Omicron could infect 60 percent of Europeans by March.

In a statement on Monday he added: “We are entering a new phase, driven by the highly transmissible Omicron variant sweeping Europe, from west to east.”

Once the current surge of Omicron sweeping across Europe subsides, “there will be for quite some weeks and months a global immunity, either thanks to the vaccine or because people have immunity due to the infection, and also lowering seasonality”.

“We anticipate that there will be a period of quiet before Covid-19 may come back towards the end of the year, but not necessarily the pandemic coming back,” Kluge said.

“The pandemic is far from over, but I am hopeful we can end the emergency phase in 2022 and address other health threats that urgently require our attention.”


Top US scientist Anthony Fauci expressed similar optimism on Sunday, telling ABC News talk show “This Week” that with Covid-19 cases coming down “rather sharply” in parts of the United States, “things are looking good”.

While cautioning against over confidence, he said that if the recent fall in case numbers in areas like the US’s northeast continued, “I believe that you will start to see a turnaround throughout the entire country”.

The WHO regional office for Africa also said last week that cases of Covid had plummeted in that region and deaths were declining for the first time since the Omicron-dominated fourth wave of the virus reached its peak.

‘Other variants could emerge’

The Omicron variant, which studies have shown is more contagious than Delta but generally leads to less severe infection among vaccinated people, has raised long-awaited hopes that Covid-19 is starting to shift from a pandemic to a more manageable endemic illness like seasonal flu.

But Kluge cautioned that it was still too early to consider Covid-19 endemic.

“There is a lot of talk about endemic but endemic means … that it is possible to predict what’s going to happen. This virus has surprised (us) more than once so we have to be very careful,” Kluge said.

With Omicron spreading so widely, other variants could still emerge, he warned.

The European Commissioner for Internal Markets, Thierry Breton, whose brief includes vaccine production, said Sunday that it will be possible to adapt existing vaccines to any new variants that may emerge.

“We will be able to better resist, including to new variants”, he told French television LCI.

“We will be ready to adapt the vaccines, especially the mRNA ones, if necessary to adapt them to more virulent variants”.

In the WHO Europe region, which comprises 53 countries including several in Central Asia, Omicron now accounts for 31.8% of cases across the European Region, up from 15% the previous week, and 6.3% the week before that. 

Omicron is now the dominant variant in the European Union and the European Economic Area (EEA, or Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein), the EU health agency ECDC said last week.

Impact on Europe

Because of the very fast spread of the variant across Europe, Kluge said emphasis ought to be on “minimising disruption of hospitals, schools and the economy, and putting huge efforts on protecting the vulnerable”, rather than measures to stop transmission.

He meanwhile urged people to exercise personal responsibility.

“If you don’t feel well, stay home, take a self test. If you’re positive, isolate”, he said.

Kluge said the priority was to stabilise the situation in Europe, where vaccination levels range across countries from 25 to 95 percent of the population, leading to varying degrees of strain on hospitals and health-care system.

“Stabilising means that the health system is no longer overwhelmed due to Covid-19 and can continue with the essential health services, which have unfortunately been really disrupted for cancer, cardiovascular disease, and routine immunisation”.

Asked whether fourth doses would be necessary to bring an end to the pandemic, Kluge was cautious, saying only that “we know that that immunity jumps up after each shot of the vaccine”.

The pandemic has so far killed nearly 5.6 million million people worldwide, according to official figures compiled by AFP, 1.7 million of them in Europe.

Kluge said: “Every single hour since the pandemic’s onset, 99 people in the Region have lost their lives to COVID-19.

“We mourn the more than 1.7 million people in the European Region who are no longer with us. Gains in poverty reduction have been reversed, with more than 4 million people in the Region now pushed under the 5.50 USD a day poverty line. Children’s education and mental well-being have suffered immensely.”

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New Covid-19 variant on the rebound in France

French health authorities have noted an increase in hospital visits likely connected to Covid-19 as a new variant makes its away around France.

New Covid-19 variant on the rebound in France

Covid-19 has been making a comeback in France since the end of July, via the new ‘Eris’ variant, or EG-5 strain, which has been connected to over a third (35 percent) of cases of the virus sequenced in France recently.

The variant is also spreading in Italy, the UK and the United States, and the World Health Organisation has announced that it is “closely monitoring the situation”.

Santé Publique France said on August 1st in their weekly bulletin that they had recorded a 26 percent increase in emergency room visits for suspected Covid-19 infection during the week of July 24th to 30th in comparison to the week previous.

This was particularly pronounced for older people, but “spanned age categories”.

Experts have said that ‘Eris’ is highly contagious – one professor at the University of Montpellier, Mircea Sofonea, told Le Figaro that the new strain is “more efficient in terms of transmission and […] is also more efficient in terms of immune escape”.

Nevertheless, Sofonea noted that the variant could be gaining ground simply due to a “natural immune decline in the general population”. 

The professor also told Le Figaro that there is no data indicating that this variation or its symptoms are particularly severe.

Similar to Omicron variants, symptoms such as cough, high fever, and runny nose remain common.

Epidemiologist Antoine Flahaul told Actu France that “there are no particularly worrying characteristics with this new variant”, but advised that people still exercise caution.

Notably, there was an upturn in cases following the annual Fêtes de Bayonne in French Basque country, which attracted over 1.3 million people. Sébastien Boucher, head of Axbio laboratories in the area told France Bleu that his centres recorded a 20 percent positivity rate in test before the festival, and a 35 percent rate afterwards in the area around Bayonne. 

Local media reported that pharmacies ran out of self-tests at the start of the festival, and that testing appointments increased significantly amid the Fête.

In February, the French government dropped the requirement to isolate after a positive Covid-19 test result, but health experts still recommend protective steps such as avoiding contact with immune-compromised people and informing those you were in contact with while contagious.