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Why food price increases in Norway will become harder to spot

Experts believe that price rises in Norwegian supermarkets will happen more dynamically in the future, and consumers will need to pay better attention to changing prices.

Pictured is the fruit and vegetable section of the supermarket.
Supermarkets in Norway appear to have abandoned the old system of adjusting supermarket prices. Pictured is the fruit and vegetable section of the supermarket. Photo by Rob Maxwell on Unsplash

This year has seen supermarkets buck the trend of adjusting prices across the board twice a year. Typically, supermarkets would change the cost of their products at the beginning of February and then at the start of July following negotiations with suppliers.

After no significant change in prices on July 1st this year, it appears that Norwegian supermarkets have more or less abandoned the old system.

“Even now, we have not seen the price increase in the shops. This is partly due to the fact that it was not expected that the purchase prices would increase so much now on July 1st, but also to Rema 1000’s initiative to negotiate more continuously with suppliers. It is still uncertain how many of the contracts have been renegotiated,” Øystein Foros at the Norwegian Business School told the Norwegian newswire NTB.

Foros added that there are signs that the cost of groceries changing on certain days of the year has ended and that prices will be more fluid moving forward.

“If the chains move away from this system, shop prices will probably react more quickly when raw material prices change, and we will see a more dynamic change in prices,” he said.

The old system attracted criticism from the government and consumer watchdogs earlier this year after supermarkets publicly announced rough price increases. However, the rises never materialised in February after Kiwi chose to freeze the price of more than 100 items.

Other supermarkets followed suit, and the competition on keeping prices locked didn’t end until later in the spring when prices began slowly rising after Easter.

Odd Gisholt, an expert on groceries and professor at the Norwegian Business School, told NTB that the new system meant things were more uncertain for households.

“Times are more uncertain now, and customers must take care of themselves. Rema 1000 says they will keep their prices steady or perhaps lower them, and they are offering discounts on a number of items. Coop also says that they will lock the prices of 100 important goods,” he said.

He added that chains would only likely compete on the price of a smaller selection of goods, while other products will see a larger variation in prices.

“Consumers must be more careful, have all (the) loyalty cards, and keep up with the times,” the professor said.

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ECONOMY

What lower inflation in Norway means for you 

Inflation in Norway continues to slow. However, the cost of living in the country isn’t slowing as quickly as economists expected. Here’s what that means to you. 

What lower inflation in Norway means for you 

Inflation is slowing 

Norway’s Consumer Price Index, CPI, which measures changes in prices for household goods and services, has slowed yet again. 

Between April last year and the same month this year, prices in Norway rose by 3.6 percent. It marks the third time that price increases have been below four percent since the start of 2022. 

The figures, released by Norway’s national data agency Statistics Norway, mark the fourth month in a row where the 12 monthly inflation figure has been lower than the yearly figure from the month before. This means prices are rising less rapidly than before. 

“Price growth decreased for the fourth month in a row in April. Prices are still higher than they were at the same time last year for most goods and services, but they are generally rising more slowly than before,” Espen Kristiansen at Statistics Norway said. 

Food remains one of the biggest contributors to inflation 

The price of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 3.3 percent from March to April, according to Statistics Norway. 

Chocolate, soft drinks, coffee, and citrus foods saw the biggest price increases, which the national data agency called “unusual.” 

What wasn’t unusual, however, was the cost of food rising following Easter, when many supermarkets ran offers to compete for customers. 

“The rise must be seen in the context of the fact that large offer campaigns in connection with Easter dampened prices in March,” Kristiansen said. 

The figures for April show that food prices in Norway have increased by 6.8 percent compared to a year ago. 

The rising cost of food and drink in Norway could potentially outgrow wages this year, even if expected pay bumps will outpace forecasted inflation overall. 

Economists expected inflation to fall more 

Inflation hasn’t eased as much as some experts were expecting. Core inflation, which excludes energy prices and taxes, was measured at 4.4 percent year on year in April. This is above what economists surveyed by the newswire Reuters expected. 

Norges Bank, the country’s central bank, raised the policy rate to a 16-year high of 4.5 percent in December. The bank has said that inflation should generally be around two percent, so it has used interest rates to curb price increases. 

As inflation isn’t falling much quicker than expected, economists predict that the central bank may wait until December before slashing rates – which for consumers means that loan and mortgage repayments will remain high for the foreseeable future. 

“The fall in inflation has not been much greater than Norges Bank has thought. This, therefore, indicates that an interest rate cut may come in December instead of September,” Kjersti Haugland, chief economist at DNB Markets, told public broadcaster NRK

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