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What now for Sweden as Finland gives early green light to Nato entry?

The likelihood of Finland joining Nato before Sweden increased on Wednesday as the Finnish parliament voted in favour of joining the military alliance, awaiting ratifications from Hungary and Turkey.

Published: 1 March 2023 15:43 CET
What now for Sweden as Finland gives early green light to Nato entry?
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Finnish President Sauli Niinistö at a Nordic summit last week. Photo: Claudio Bresciani/TT

Both Finland and Sweden dropped their decades-long policies of military non-alignment and applied to join the trans-Atlantic defence pact last May, in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

However, Sweden has had several diplomatic spats with Nato member Turkey, which threaten to delay its membership bid and chances of joining at the same time as Finland.

Finnish lawmakers approved legislation affirming that Finland accepts the terms of the Nato treaty by 184 votes against seven, with one abstention and seven MPs not being present.

“The vote is an important step on our Nato path. The security of the homeland is a common cause,” Defence Minister Antti Kaikkonen wrote on Twitter.

Joining Nato requires ratification from its 30 members, and Hungary and Turkey remain the holdouts.

Finland’s parliament pushed for the legislation to be passed pre-emptively, ahead of April 2nd general elections, to avoid the ratifications coming in before a new government has been formed.

Markus Mustajärvi from the Left Alliance party – which has been vocal in its Nato opposition in the past – had asked lawmakers to strike down the bill, citing a lack of guarantees that nuclear weapons would not be placed in Finland.

Hungary debates entry

Hungary began debating Finland and Sweden’s Nato application bids on Wednesday, with the ratification set for between March 6 and 9, although delays are expected.

Turkey announced Monday that negotiations with Finland and Sweden would resume on March 9th, after talks with Sweden were dropped over a row about protests held in Stockholm, including the burning of the Quran in front of Turkey’s embassy.

Turkey also accuses Sweden of providing a safe haven for what it considers “terrorists”, in particular members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said on Monday that Ankara now looked favourably on Finland’s bid, adding that “we may separate Sweden and Finland’s membership process”.

Finland alone

Passing the bill does not mean Finland will automatically join Nato after ratification by Turkey and Hungary, but it puts in place a deadline for how long it can wait for its neighbour.

The government’s chancellor of justice, Tuomas Pöysti, said that after the bill is approved by the parliament, the president can wait a maximum of three months to sign it.

Finland’s President Sauli Niinistö told reporters last week that he intended to sign the law “as soon as it is approved by parliament,” but “if there are practical reasons, I can wait”.

“But not beyond the elections” set for April, he added.

A majority of Finns want to go ahead and join Nato even if Sweden’s membership is delayed, a poll suggested in February.

Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has said Finland joining alone could “complicate” the close military cooperation between the Nordic countries.

On Tuesday, Finland also announced the start of construction of its planned 200-kilometre fence on the Russian border, after tensions with Moscow have risen.

Article by AFP’s Elias Huuhtanen

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MILITARY

EXPLAINED: What you need to know about Sweden’s new military spending report

Sweden's parliamentary defence commission on Friday recommended adding 52.8 billion kronor to the national defence budget by 2030, taking defence spending to 2.6 percent of GDP.

Published: 27 April 2024 13:18 CEST
EXPLAINED: What you need to know about Sweden's new military spending report

What is the Swedish Defence Commision? 

The Swedish Defence Commission is a cross-party forum which seeks to ensure broad political agreement around Sweden’s defence requirements. It brings together representatives of all eight parties in the Swedish parliament, with two each from the Moderates, Sweden Democrats and Social Democrats and one each for the other parties.

There are also advisers and experts from the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry for Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Finance, the Prime Minister’s Office, the Swedish Armed Forces, the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration and the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency. Members of the committee are supported by a secretariat comprising one principal secretary and five secretaries.

What is the report they have delivered? 

The committee on Friday delivered its final, report, “Strengthened defence capability, Sweden as an Ally“, meeting the deadline given by the country’s defence minister Pål Jonson when he ordered the committee to develop proposals for a new defence bill in December 2022, with a total of four reports, the first three of which were delivered in April 2023, June 2023, December 2023. 

What have they recommended? 

The committee have recommended that Sweden’s budget is increased from 119 billion kronor a year in 2024 to 185 billion kronor in 2030, which would bring total spending to 2.6 percent of Sweden’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). 

The committee said it agreed with the recommendations given by Micael Byden, Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces in November 2023, which were that Sweden should increase or improve: 

  • air defence and in particular its cooperation within NATO’s Integrated Air and Missile Defence (IAMD)
  • its ability to combat air, land and sea drones 
  • its integration with NATO’s command system
  • its logistics, so that it can provide Host Nation Support and serve as a base for other units from other Nato countries. 
  • its capacity to operate with military units outside Sweden’s borders 

But the committee also made additional recommendations beyong those given by the armed forces, calling for: 

  • two new army brigades, so that Sweden would have three mechanised brigades and one infantry brigade by 2030
  • a new Norrland Infantry Regiment,
  • an increase in the number of conscripts trained a year from the current level of 8,000 to 10,000 in 2030 and 12,000 in 2032, and possibly to 14,000 in 2035
  • a boost in Sweden’s air defence capability, particularly to counter drone attacks 
  • stocking up on additional ammunition, including air-to-air and cruise missiles, and spare parts 
  • 20 new companies and platoons dedicated to defending Sweden’s territories 
  • increased refresher courses for conscripts, extra funding of voluntary defence organisations, and expansion of the officer education programme

How will the cost of funding this military expansion be met? 

While they were agreed on what needed to be done, party representatives on the committee did not agree on how much needed to be spent or how ti should be financed. 

The Centre Party representative said that spending should be higher, comprising 3 percent of GDP. 

The representatives from the Social Democrats, Left Party, and Green Party, added a statement to the report when they called for a section on how the extra spending should be financed.  

Peter Hultqvist, who served as defence minister under the former Social Democrat government, called for a new beredskapsskatt, or “Readiness Tax” to fund the increase, saying it was disappointing that the committee had not been able to agree on financing. 

“This demand is so big that it risks pushing other pressing requirements out of government spending plans,” he said. “There is a risk that healthcare, education and elderly care will be hit.” 

But Ulf Kristersson, Sweden’s prime minister, rejected the idea of a new tax. 

“It’s no secret that the parties on the left always see reasons to raise taxes, and that’s the case this time as well, I assume. But that is not our way forward,” he said. “We must be able to prioritise Swedish defense, and I understand that there is now complete agreement that it is an important political task.” 

Anna Starbrink, a defence spokesperson for the Liberals, the smallest party in the government, said that the Swedish Defence Commission had not in the past been tasked with developing funding proposals. 

“This is a new idea from the opposition and from the Social Democrats’ side is about nothing more than forcing through a new tax hike through the defence commission, and that’s something the rest of us don’t want to go along with,” she said. 

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