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NATO

Nato launches ratification process for Sweden and Finland

Nato on Tuesday kicked off momentous accession procedures for Sweden and Finland, aiming to expand the military alliance to 32 countries in reaction to Russia's war in Ukraine.

Nato launches ratification process for Sweden and Finland
Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs Anne Linde give a press conference after the signing of the accession protocols of Finland and Sweden at the NATO headquarters in Brussels on July 5, 2022. - The process to ratify Sweden and Finland as the newest members of NATO was formally launched on July. Photo: Kenzo Tribouillard/AFP

“This is an historic day, for Finland, for Sweden, for Nato, and for Euro-Atlantic security,” Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg said after protocols were signed launching the required ratification process in all alliance countries.

The foreign ministers of Sweden and Finland, alongside Stoltenberg, also qualified the occasion as “historic”.

 “We are tremendously grateful for all the strong support that our accession has received from the allies,” said Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde.

“We are convinced that our membership would strengthen Nato and add to the stability in the Euro Atlantic area,” she added.

“The membership of both Finland and Sweden will not only contribute to our own security, but to the collective security of the alliance,” said Finland’s Pekka Haavisto.

The two Nordic countries had long maintained non-alignment status, even though they have held exercises with Nato and have inter-operable weapons systems.

They announced intentions to join Nato in May, triggered by Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine and ongoing war there.

In a sudden change of course, Sweden and Finland — the latter of which fought a Soviet invasion in 1939-1940 and shares a 1,340-kilometre (830-mile) border with Russia — asked to come under Nato’s mutual-defence umbrella.

Their bids hit a road-bump when Turkey, a Nato member, threatened to block their entry.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had accused Sweden and Finland of being havens for Kurdish militants he has sought to crush, and for promoting “terrorism”.

He also demanded they lift arms embargoes imposed for Turkey’s 2019 military incursion into Syria. But Erdogan dropped his objections last week, in time for a Nato summit in Spain, after negotiations resulted in concessions — and a US promise of new warplanes for Turkey.

The summit ended up extending invitations to Sweden and Finland to formally apply, leading to lightning-fast negotiations on Monday then Tuesday’s signing.

Security commitments

Erdogan says he could still slam the door shut if Sweden and Finland don’t follow through on their promises, which include possible extradition agreements.

The months-long period during which all Nato countries have to ratify the Nordic countries’ membership is a risky moment, not only because of Turkey’s threat but also because the Nato mutual-defence clause is not yet applicable.

Stoltenberg said: “I count on allies to deliver a quick and swift and smooth ratification process.”

He emphasised that “many allies have already made clear commitments to Finland and Sweden’s security” during the interim period, and pointed out a boosted Nato presence in their region.

Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde said security assurances had been made by the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland and Nato members in the Nordic and Baltic regions. Several Nato members flagged expedited ratification for Sweden and Finland.

“Moments after Finland and Sweden’s accession protocols were signed in Brussels, I summoned my government and proposed to Estonian parliament to convene tomorrow for accelerated ratification,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas tweeted.

Germany’s parliament was poised to ratify as early as the end of this week. Sources in the ruling coalition said a first reading of the text was likely on Wednesday, with the final two readings on Friday.

“This is the fastest accession process in Nato’s history so far,” Stoltenberg said.

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MILITARY

EXPLAINED: What you need to know about Sweden’s new military spending report

Sweden's parliamentary defence commission on Friday recommended adding 52.8 billion kronor to the national defence budget by 2030, taking defence spending to 2.6 percent of GDP.

EXPLAINED: What you need to know about Sweden's new military spending report

What is the Swedish Defence Commision? 

The Swedish Defence Commission is a cross-party forum which seeks to ensure broad political agreement around Sweden’s defence requirements. It brings together representatives of all eight parties in the Swedish parliament, with two each from the Moderates, Sweden Democrats and Social Democrats and one each for the other parties.

There are also advisers and experts from the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry for Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Finance, the Prime Minister’s Office, the Swedish Armed Forces, the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration and the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency. Members of the committee are supported by a secretariat comprising one principal secretary and five secretaries.

What is the report they have delivered? 

The committee on Friday delivered its final, report, “Strengthened defence capability, Sweden as an Ally“, meeting the deadline given by the country’s defence minister Pål Jonson when he ordered the committee to develop proposals for a new defence bill in December 2022, with a total of four reports, the first three of which were delivered in April 2023, June 2023, December 2023. 

What have they recommended? 

The committee have recommended that Sweden’s budget is increased from 119 billion kronor a year in 2024 to 185 billion kronor in 2030, which would bring total spending to 2.6 percent of Sweden’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). 

The committee said it agreed with the recommendations given by Micael Byden, Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces in November 2023, which were that Sweden should increase or improve: 

  • air defence and in particular its cooperation within NATO’s Integrated Air and Missile Defence (IAMD)
  • its ability to combat air, land and sea drones 
  • its integration with NATO’s command system
  • its logistics, so that it can provide Host Nation Support and serve as a base for other units from other Nato countries. 
  • its capacity to operate with military units outside Sweden’s borders 

But the committee also made additional recommendations beyong those given by the armed forces, calling for: 

  • two new army brigades, so that Sweden would have three mechanised brigades and one infantry brigade by 2030
  • a new Norrland Infantry Regiment,
  • an increase in the number of conscripts trained a year from the current level of 8,000 to 10,000 in 2030 and 12,000 in 2032, and possibly to 14,000 in 2035
  • a boost in Sweden’s air defence capability, particularly to counter drone attacks 
  • stocking up on additional ammunition, including air-to-air and cruise missiles, and spare parts 
  • 20 new companies and platoons dedicated to defending Sweden’s territories 
  • increased refresher courses for conscripts, extra funding of voluntary defence organisations, and expansion of the officer education programme

How will the cost of funding this military expansion be met? 

While they were agreed on what needed to be done, party representatives on the committee did not agree on how much needed to be spent or how ti should be financed. 

The Centre Party representative said that spending should be higher, comprising 3 percent of GDP. 

The representatives from the Social Democrats, Left Party, and Green Party, added a statement to the report when they called for a section on how the extra spending should be financed.  

Peter Hultqvist, who served as defence minister under the former Social Democrat government, called for a new beredskapsskatt, or “Readiness Tax” to fund the increase, saying it was disappointing that the committee had not been able to agree on financing. 

“This demand is so big that it risks pushing other pressing requirements out of government spending plans,” he said. “There is a risk that healthcare, education and elderly care will be hit.” 

But Ulf Kristersson, Sweden’s prime minister, rejected the idea of a new tax. 

“It’s no secret that the parties on the left always see reasons to raise taxes, and that’s the case this time as well, I assume. But that is not our way forward,” he said. “We must be able to prioritise Swedish defense, and I understand that there is now complete agreement that it is an important political task.” 

Anna Starbrink, a defence spokesperson for the Liberals, the smallest party in the government, said that the Swedish Defence Commission had not in the past been tasked with developing funding proposals. 

“This is a new idea from the opposition and from the Social Democrats’ side is about nothing more than forcing through a new tax hike through the defence commission, and that’s something the rest of us don’t want to go along with,” she said. 

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