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WORKING IN SPAIN

Why the Basque Country is Spain’s industrial powerhouse

Mining roots stretching back centuries, an astute transition to R+D, locally-run companies, and a special fiscal agreement with the government. When it comes to industry and jobs, the Basque Country is just different to the rest of Spain.

Why the Basque Country is Spain's industrial powerhouse
Bilbao city centre used to be far more industrial and grey, until it was completely revamped in the 90s and 2000s . Photo: Eduardo Kenji Amorim/Unsplash

The Basque Country is something of an exception in Spain. It’s one of the country’s smaller regions, with a little over 2 million people living there, yet also has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country and the second highest per capita income after Madrid.

Much of this economic strength comes from a centuries-long industrial history in the Basque Country, as well as a bespoke fiscal agreement with the national government that gives the region greater control over taxes. In recent decades, it’s overtaken Catalonia to emerge as arguably Spain’s real industrial powerhouse.

Though it’s not what it was, industry is still the main economic motor in the Basque economy, making up almost a quarter (23.1 percent) of GDP according to INE data from 2022, meaning it’s the region with the second largest share behind only neighbours Navarre.

It also has a high percentage of people working in industry, 18.5 percent, which is well above the national average (11 percent) and it is also far and away Spain’s strike capital, accounting for around half of all industrial action in Spain. 

READ ALSO: Why the Basque Country is the strike capital of Spain

Though historically Barcelona was Spain’s industrial base for many years, a combination of factors have propelled the Basque Country to its status as Spain’s industrial powerhouse in recent decades.

As is often the case with this northern region, the Basques do things slightly differently to the rest of Spain. It has used its pre-existing industrial heritage to take advantage of new technologies, keep industrial hubs at home, introduced effective traineeships and career paths to keep the industrial motor going with local staff, all while benefiting from the regimen foral (chartered regime) that gives the region a level of fiscal autonomy (some would say unfair advantage) from the central government.

Industrial roots

But this is nothing new. The idea of the Basque Country as an industrial powerhouse goes back centuries to the mining industry. From as early as the 14th century, Basque iron-ore mining contributed to economic growth that outpaced many other parts of Spain, and then, in the 18th century, Basque industry shifted its attention to the steel industry.

Around a century or so later, in the 19th century, blast furnaces allowed Basque’s to export iron in bulk quantity, mostly to the UK. As a result of this thriving export business, the Basque Country underwent a period of industrialisation which not only boosted steel production due to increased iron ore production, but it also put Basques firmly in the tool and machinery industry and set the region up for a strong industrial future.

The Basque Country’s mining roots stretch to the 14th century. (Photo by CESAR MANSO / AFP)

Technological transition

One of the main reasons the Basque Country has emerged as an industrial power is its adaptability. Fernando Barciela, a long-time contributor to El País’ business section, has written on this transition, and how the industrial past set the Basque Country up for success in the future: “In the Basque country, the old blast furnaces, steel industries and tool manufacturing companies of that period have been transformed into a high-tech industrial infrastructure, which includes the automotive and aeronautics sectors, as well as new energies, [and] machine tools.”

As Barcelona’s industrial power wanted at the end of the 20th century, the Basques positioned themselves at the cutting edge of global industry and have established a highly successful export industry, something that contributes to the region’s wealth overall.

READ ALSO: Why are the Basque Country and Catalonia so rich compared to the rest of Spain?

Barciela notes that “they [Basque companies] export between 70-90 percent of their production, achieving surpluses for the region’s trade balance, of some €5 billion in one of the last few years.” Long-term investment in technology and R&D from the regional government has helped solidify the Basque Country as one of the most innovative parts of Europe.

As such, the Basque Country boasts the headquarters of major international industrial names like Iberdrola, Tubos Reunidos, Aernnova Aerospace, Arcelor, Cie Automotive, Irizar, Mondragón, and ITP Aeronautica, among many others. And unlike any other regions that have multinational companies based there, or indeed other countries, the majority of the companies based in the Basque Country are owned and run by long-established Basque families, many of whom work together.

There are also apprenticeship schemes to help local youngsters join industries easily and a more balanced population distribution across the Basque Country as R+D plants and factories are found in smaller towns and villages, not just close to the big cities of Bilbao and San Sebastián.

Barciela also suggests that the Basque Country’s industrial base (and economy more broadly) was insulated from the worst effects of the financial crisis and “it was also a great help that the Basque savings banks were saved from the property bubble. This meant that most of them avoided going bust.”

While around the rest of the country most banks focused on property and mortgages, “the Basque savings banks continued to support industrial projects developed by the companies and backed by the government in Vitoria.”

Bilbao’s port is the most important in northern Spain. Photo: ANDER GILLENEA/AFP

The future

However, the future isn’t entirely rosy for Basque industry or its economy. According to Spanish public broadcaster RTVE, the region’s economic activity rate is falling and is currently lower than the national rate (57 percent compared to 59 percent nationally).

Similarly, the decreasing weight of its regional GDP in terms of the national economy, and the combination of an ageing population and a worsening public health system, all indicate that changes could be needed in the future. These sorts of structural changes will be costly and could impact on the Basque Country’s position as one of the wealthier regions of Spain. Though with its regimen foral it is unclear how big of an impact this will have.

Even the traditional high wages in the Basque Country are falling closer to national levels. Jon Bernat Zubiri Rey, professor of Economics at the Universidad del País Vasco, told RTVE that in “the Basque Country there was a large wage differential in relation to Spain, but this has tended to decrease” in recent years.

Similarly, the Basque economy itself is beginning to change. Though its industrial base is so well established that it will always likely form the backbone of the Basque economy, the tourist sector, traditionally not as integral there compared to other parts of Spain, has grown since the disbandment of ETA and pivoted to the tourist sector, perhaps most notably with then opening of the Guggenheim museum Bilbao in 1997.

Basque hotels registered 3.6 million check-ins in 2023, 10.4 percent more than in the previous year.

The Basque Country is also having a slower post-pandemic economic recovery than most regions. In 2023 the regional economy grew by 1. percent, well below the national average of 2.5 percent.

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PENSIONS

Spain needs 25 million foreign workers to keep its pensions afloat

As the retirement of baby boomers looms, Spain's ageing population and declining birth rate mean the country will need millions of foreign workers to maintain its public pension pot and reinforce the labour market, the Bank of Spain has warned.

Spain needs 25 million foreign workers to keep its pensions afloat

A recent study by the Bank of Spain estimates that the country will need up to 25 million more immigrant workers by 2053 in order to combat demographic ageing and maintain the ratio of workers to pensioners in order to support the pension system.

Without an influx of more foreign workers or sudden increase in the birth rate in Spain, something that seems very unlikely, experts fear that the growing disparity between working age people and pensioners could put the public pensions system in danger in the medium to long-term.

Like in many countries in the western world, the Spanish population is ageing, with the percentage of the population over 65 years of age predicted to peak in 2050, when almost one in three will be 65 years old or older.

READ ALSO: Spain’s over 65s exceed 20 percent of the population for the first time

By 2035 around one in four (26.0 percent) of Spaniards are expected to be 65 or older. That figure is currently around one fifth of the population.

Furthermore, this is compounded by falling birth rates. Spain’s birth rate hit a record low in 2023, falling to its lowest level since records began, according to INE data. Spain’s fertility rate is the second lowest in the European Union, with Eurostat figures showing there were just 1.19 births per woman in Spain in 2021, compared with 1.13 in Malta and 1.25 in Italy.

If nothing changes, the current ratio of 3.8 people of working age for every pensioner is predicted to plummet to just 2.1 by 2053, according to INE projections.

Maintaining this ratio seems unlikely moving forward, according to the report’s conclusions, something that would put pressure on pensions without significantly increasing social security contributions among working age people.

READ ALSO: Older and more diverse: What Spain’s population will be like in 50 years

The Bank of Spain report noted that “immigrants have high labour participation rates, generally above those of natives – in 2022, 70 percent and 56.5 percent, respectively.”

In three decades’ time, the INE expects Spain to have 14.8 million pensioners, 18 million Spanish nationals of working age and 12 million foreigners. To maintain the ratio, the Bank of Spain forecasts that the working immigrant population would have to rise by more than 25 million to a total of 37 million overall.

Of course, the arrival of 25 million working-age foreigners seems unlikely, if not impossible. To achieve this, around 1 million net migrants would have to enter Spain each year (discounting departures), a figure unprecedented in recent history. To put the figure in context, between 2002 and 2022 net arrivals in Spain reached five million, roughly five times less than what would be necessary to maintain the balance between workers and pensioners.

READ ALSO: ‘Homologación’ – How Spain is ruining the careers of thousands of qualified foreigners

Putting the economics aside, even if such an increase were statistically plausible, such a surge in net migration would be contentious both politically and socially. And it’s not even certain that increased migrant flows would be able to fill the gap in working age people and bolster public pensions: “The capacity of migratory flows to significantly mitigate the process of population ageing is limited,” the Bank of Spain warned in its report. 

What these projections suggest is that Spain’s public pension system will, in coming decades, likely have to be sustained by the contribution of fewer workers overall. This likely means higher social security payments. “Migratory flows have been very dynamic in recent years, but it does not seem likely that they can avoid the process of population ageing… nor completely resolve the imbalances that could arise in the Spanish labour market in the future,” the report stated.

The problem of ageing will also be transferred to the labour market and the types of jobs filled in the future. Increased migratory flows will soften the effect, but the labour characteristics of migrants coming to Spain may not match the job market in the coming decades. The jobs of the future, increasingly digital, will likely require qualifications that many of the migrants expected to arrive in the coming years do not have.

Consequently, the Bank of Spain suggests that “without significant changes in the nature of migratory flows, it does not seem likely that… [they] can completely resolve the mismatches between labour supply and demand that could occur in the coming years in the Spanish labour market.”

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