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STATISTICS

Sweden’s population growth slowest in 22 years as fertility rate drops to record low

Sweden's fertility rate is at an all-time low, with experts warning that the working population could eventually start to shrink.

Sweden's population growth slowest in 22 years as fertility rate drops to record low
File photo of a newborn baby. Photo: Christine Olsson/TT

Sweden’s population grew by 30,200 people to 10.5 million last year, the smallest population increase in absolute terms since 2001, official statistics showed on Thursday, as the country has sought to curb immigration.

A combination of “a decrease in the number of births, a lower number of immigrations as well as a higher number of emigrations are the reasons for the lower population increase during 2023 compared to previous years,” Statistics Sweden said.

According to the agency, 94,500 people immigrated to Sweden last year, an eight percent decrease from the previous year, while 73,400 people emigrated from the country, a 45 percent increase.

The coalition government, led by Ulf Kristersson of the Moderate Party but relying on the support of the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats, has pledged to limit migration since coming to power in 2022.

Part of the explanation, however, is that the Swedish Tax Agency last year began a huge project to deregister several thousands of people who no longer live in Sweden from the population register. They are now formally in the books as having emigrated to an unknown country.

At the same time, the fertility rate in the Scandinavian country is at an all-time low, at 1.45 children per woman last year, according to the statistics agency. A total of 100,100 births were recorded last year.

Experts say that if the trend continues, the working population will eventually start to shrink, putting a strain on the country’s welfare system.

Nordic countries still have some of the highest fertility rates in Europe, according to Eurostat’s most recent data.

In 2021, Sweden’s fertility rate was 1.67 children per woman, above the EU average of 1.53 and significantly higher than countries in southern Europe such as Spain, which had a fertility rate of 1.19.

Those rates are well below the threshold of 2.1 that experts say is needed to maintain population levels.

Member comments

  1. fertility rate down, average death rate up in past 3 years. I wonder what it could be that’s caused it, hmm? What’s happened in past 3 years that’s different?

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WORK PERMITS

Business leaders: Work permit threshold ‘has no place in Swedish labour model’

Sweden's main business group has attacked a proposal to exempt some jobs from a new minimum salary for work permits, saying it is "unacceptable" political interference in the labour model and risks seriously affecting national competitiveness.

Business leaders: Work permit threshold 'has no place in Swedish labour model'

The Confederation of Swedish Enterprise said in its response to the government’s consultation, submitted on Thursday afternoon, that it not only opposed the proposal to raise the minimum salary for a work permit to Sweden’s median salary (currently 34,200 kronor a month), but also opposed plans to exempt some professions from the higher threshold. 

“To place barriers in the way of talent recruitment by bringing in a highly political salary threshold in combination with labour market testing is going to worsen the conditions for Swedish enterprise in both the short and the long term, and risks leading to increased fraud and abuse,” the employer’s group said.   

The group, which represents businesses across most of Sweden’s industries, has been critical of the plans to further raise the salary threshold for work permits from the start, with the organisation’s deputy director general, Karin Johansson, telling The Local this week that more than half of those affected by the higher threshold would be skilled graduate recruits Swedish businesses sorely need.   

But the fact that it has not only rejected the higher salary threshold, but also the proposed system of exemptions, will nonetheless come as a blow to Sweden’s government, and particular the Moderate Party led by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, which has long claimed to be the party of business. 

The confederation complained that the model proposed in the conclusions of the government inquiry published in February would give the government and political parties a powerful new role in setting salary conditions, undermining the country’s treasured system of collective bargaining. 

The proposal for the higher salary threshold, was, the confederation argued, “wrong in principle” and did “not belong in the Swedish labour market”. 

“That the state should decide on the minimum salary for certain foreign employees is an unacceptable interference in the Swedish collective bargaining model, where the parties [unions and employers] weigh up various needs and interested in negotiations,” it wrote. 

In addition, the confederation argued that the proposed system where the Sweden Public Employment Service and the Migration Agency draw up a list of exempted jobs, which would then be vetted by the government, signified the return of the old system of labour market testing which was abolished in 2008.

“The government agency-based labour market testing was scrapped because of it ineffectiveness, and because it was unreasonable that government agencies were given influence over company recruitment,” the confederation wrote. 

“The system meant long handling times, arbitrariness, uncertainty for employers and employees, as well as an indirect union veto,” it added. “Nothing suggests it will work better this time.” 

For a start, it said, the Public Employment Service’s list of professions was inexact and outdated, with only 179 professions listed, compared to 430 monitored by Statistics Sweden. This was particularly the case for new skilled roles within industries like battery manufacturing. 

“New professions or smaller professions are not caught up by the classification system, which among other things is going to make it harder to recruit in sectors which are important for the green industrial transition,” the confederation warned. 

Rather than implement the proposals outlined in the inquiry’s conclusions, it concluded, the government should instead begin work on a new national strategy for international recruitment. 

“Sweden instead needs a national strategy aimed at creating better conditions for Swedish businesses to be able to attract, recruit and retain international competence.”

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