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NATO

Turkey expected to vote on Sweden’s Nato membership this week

The Turkish parliament is expected to approve Sweden's membership of Nato this week, ending over a year of delays that severely strained its ties with Western allies.

Turkey expected to vote on Sweden's Nato membership this week
File photo of legislators in Turkey's Grand National Assembly. Photo: AP Photo/Ali Unal

CNN Turk said a vote could take place as early as Tuesday while a source told AFP that it might be held on Thursday.

Turkey’s ratification would leave Hungary as the last holdout in an accession process that Sweden and its neighbour Finland began in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago.

Finland became the 31st member of the US-led defence alliance last April.

Its membership roughly doubled the length of Nato’s border with Russia and substantially strengthened the defences of three tiny Baltic nations that joined the bloc following the Soviet Union’s collapse.

Sweden and Finland pursued a policy of military non-alignment during the Cold War era confrontation between Moscow and Washington.

But Russia’s invasion of its western neighbour set off Europe’s biggest and most brutal land battle since World War II, upturning geopolitical calculations.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s resistance to Sweden’s Nato accession reflected his more nuanced stance toward Moscow.

Turkey has profited from maintaining – and even expanding – trade with Russia while at the same time supplying Ukraine with drones and other essential arms.

Erdogan has also been one of the few Western leaders to hold regular meetings and phone conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Turkish media reported that Putin could make his first wartime visit to Turkey next month.

US fighter jets

Erdogan’s objections to Sweden’s bid initially focused on Stockholm’s perceived acceptance of Kurdish groups that Ankara views as “terrorist”.

Sweden has responded by tightening its anti-terrorism legislation and tacking other security steps demanded by Erdogan.

The Turkish parliament’s foreign affairs committee approved the Swedish bid last month.

But Erdogan has since demanded that Washington follow through on its pledge to deliver a batch of F-16 fighter jets for Turkey’s ageing air force. He last month discussed his demands by telephone with US President Joe Biden.

US officials argued that Turkey’s request could win the required congressional approval if Sweden’s Nato accession goes through – a position reaffirmed by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during a visit to Istanbul this month.

“We have not parsed words about how ready we are for Sweden to formally join the alliance,” deputy State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said after news emerged that Turkey was finally ready to ratify the Swedish candidacy.

“We have long felt that (Sweden) has met its commitment and we look forward to this process moving forward.”

Some analysts additionally linked Turkey’s continued delays to Erdogan’s anger at Washington for its support of how Israel is pursuing its war against Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip.

Erdogan has turned into one of the Muslim world’s harshest critics of the scale of death and destruction unleashed by Israel in response to the militants’ unprecedented October 7th attack on Israel.

Article by AFP’s Burcin Gercek with Fulya Ozerkan in Istanbul

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MILITARY

EXPLAINED: What you need to know about Sweden’s new military spending report

Sweden's parliamentary defence commission on Friday recommended adding 52.8 billion kronor to the national defence budget by 2030, taking defence spending to 2.6 percent of GDP.

EXPLAINED: What you need to know about Sweden's new military spending report

What is the Swedish Defence Commision? 

The Swedish Defence Commission is a cross-party forum which seeks to ensure broad political agreement around Sweden’s defence requirements. It brings together representatives of all eight parties in the Swedish parliament, with two each from the Moderates, Sweden Democrats and Social Democrats and one each for the other parties.

There are also advisers and experts from the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry for Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Finance, the Prime Minister’s Office, the Swedish Armed Forces, the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration and the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency. Members of the committee are supported by a secretariat comprising one principal secretary and five secretaries.

What is the report they have delivered? 

The committee on Friday delivered its final, report, “Strengthened defence capability, Sweden as an Ally“, meeting the deadline given by the country’s defence minister Pål Jonson when he ordered the committee to develop proposals for a new defence bill in December 2022, with a total of four reports, the first three of which were delivered in April 2023, June 2023, December 2023. 

What have they recommended? 

The committee have recommended that Sweden’s budget is increased from 119 billion kronor a year in 2024 to 185 billion kronor in 2030, which would bring total spending to 2.6 percent of Sweden’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). 

The committee said it agreed with the recommendations given by Micael Byden, Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces in November 2023, which were that Sweden should increase or improve: 

  • air defence and in particular its cooperation within NATO’s Integrated Air and Missile Defence (IAMD)
  • its ability to combat air, land and sea drones 
  • its integration with NATO’s command system
  • its logistics, so that it can provide Host Nation Support and serve as a base for other units from other Nato countries. 
  • its capacity to operate with military units outside Sweden’s borders 

But the committee also made additional recommendations beyong those given by the armed forces, calling for: 

  • two new army brigades, so that Sweden would have three mechanised brigades and one infantry brigade by 2030
  • a new Norrland Infantry Regiment,
  • an increase in the number of conscripts trained a year from the current level of 8,000 to 10,000 in 2030 and 12,000 in 2032, and possibly to 14,000 in 2035
  • a boost in Sweden’s air defence capability, particularly to counter drone attacks 
  • stocking up on additional ammunition, including air-to-air and cruise missiles, and spare parts 
  • 20 new companies and platoons dedicated to defending Sweden’s territories 
  • increased refresher courses for conscripts, extra funding of voluntary defence organisations, and expansion of the officer education programme

How will the cost of funding this military expansion be met? 

While they were agreed on what needed to be done, party representatives on the committee did not agree on how much needed to be spent or how ti should be financed. 

The Centre Party representative said that spending should be higher, comprising 3 percent of GDP. 

The representatives from the Social Democrats, Left Party, and Green Party, added a statement to the report when they called for a section on how the extra spending should be financed.  

Peter Hultqvist, who served as defence minister under the former Social Democrat government, called for a new beredskapsskatt, or “Readiness Tax” to fund the increase, saying it was disappointing that the committee had not been able to agree on financing. 

“This demand is so big that it risks pushing other pressing requirements out of government spending plans,” he said. “There is a risk that healthcare, education and elderly care will be hit.” 

But Ulf Kristersson, Sweden’s prime minister, rejected the idea of a new tax. 

“It’s no secret that the parties on the left always see reasons to raise taxes, and that’s the case this time as well, I assume. But that is not our way forward,” he said. “We must be able to prioritise Swedish defense, and I understand that there is now complete agreement that it is an important political task.” 

Anna Starbrink, a defence spokesperson for the Liberals, the smallest party in the government, said that the Swedish Defence Commission had not in the past been tasked with developing funding proposals. 

“This is a new idea from the opposition and from the Social Democrats’ side is about nothing more than forcing through a new tax hike through the defence commission, and that’s something the rest of us don’t want to go along with,” she said. 

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