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NATO

Turkey’s foreign affairs committee approves Sweden’s Nato bid, but what happens now?

Sweden cleared another hurdle in its Nato accession process after a key committee in the Turkish parliament gave its stamp of approval.

Turkey's foreign affairs committee approves Sweden's Nato bid, but what happens now?
Turkey's foreign affairs committee's Fuat Oktay (centre) chairs a committee session on December 26th. Photo: Adem Altan/AFP

Sweden’s Nato bid had been stalled for months amid opposition from Turkey and Hungary and recently it was further complicated after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan linked it to Ankara’s request for F-16 fighter jets from its ally the United States.

Sweden and Finland dropped decades of military non-alignment and sought to join the US-led defence organisation after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Their bids won fast-track approval from all Nato members except Turkey and Hungary. Decisions within the alliance must be unanimous. The two ultimately relented and Finland was accepted as Nato’s 31st member in April.

Turkey and Hungary remain the only North Atlantic Treaty Organization members left to ratify Sweden’s bid 19 months after it applied for membership.

On Tuesday, the Turkish parliament’s foreign affairs committee approved the measure.

“The protocol (on Sweden’s Nato accession) passed the committee,” opposition CHP party lawmaker Utku Cakirozer, a member of the foreign affairs committee, told AFP after the vote.

The move paves the way for a vote by the full parliament, where Erdogan’s ruling alliance holds the majority of seats. It was not immediately clear when it would be.

‘Stronger’

Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg hailed the parliament committee vote, and said he counted on Turkey and Hungary to complete their ratifications “as soon as possible”.

“Sweden’s membership will make Nato stronger,” he said in a statement.

Sweden’s foreign minister said the next step was the vote in the Turkish parliament.

“We look forward to becoming a member of Nato,” Tobias Billström told Swedish public television broadcaster SVT Nyheter.

Erdogan in July lifted his objections to Sweden’s Nato membership after Stockholm cracked down on Kurdish groups that Ankara calls terrorists.

Nato allies have piled pressure on Turkey, with France saying the credibility of the alliance was “at stake”.

In December, Erdogan had linked Sweden’s membership to the US Congress “simultaneously” agreeing to sell F-16 fighter jets to Turkey. He also said Nato allies including Canada should lift arms embargoes imposed on Ankara.

F-16 sales

“Sweden’s Nato membership and F-16 sales to Turkey will be handled in coordination to some extent…  because unfortunately, neither country trusts the other,” Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, the Ankara office director of the US German Marshall Fund think tank, told AFP.

Turkey’s ageing air force has suffered from Ankara’s expulsion from the US-led F-35 joint strike fighter programme in 2019.

This was in retaliation for Erdogan’s decision to acquire an advanced Russian missile defence system that Nato views as an operational security threat.

US President Joe Biden’s administration has repeatedly promised to move forward with the $20-billion F-16 sale but lawmakers have blocked it over concerns about Turkey’s alleged violations of human rights and long-running tensions with Greece.

“There is no strong consensus in the parliament on Sweden’s Nato membership, nor in the US Congress on the sale of F-16s to Turkey,” Unluhisarcikli said.

Erdogan’s anti-Israel rhetoric after the start of its war with Hamas had raised concerns in Washington.

“Although the issues are not related, Turkey’s statements supporting Hamas further complicated the F-16 process,” Unluhisarcikli said, adding that the killing of Turkish soldiers by Kurdish militants last weekend could also factor into Sweden’s Nato membership.

“But if Biden and Erdogan show the necessary will, we can expect the process to be concluded soon,” he added.

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MILITARY

EXPLAINED: What you need to know about Sweden’s new military spending report

Sweden's parliamentary defence commission on Friday recommended adding 52.8 billion kronor to the national defence budget by 2030, taking defence spending to 2.6 percent of GDP.

EXPLAINED: What you need to know about Sweden's new military spending report

What is the Swedish Defence Commision? 

The Swedish Defence Commission is a cross-party forum which seeks to ensure broad political agreement around Sweden’s defence requirements. It brings together representatives of all eight parties in the Swedish parliament, with two each from the Moderates, Sweden Democrats and Social Democrats and one each for the other parties.

There are also advisers and experts from the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry for Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Finance, the Prime Minister’s Office, the Swedish Armed Forces, the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration and the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency. Members of the committee are supported by a secretariat comprising one principal secretary and five secretaries.

What is the report they have delivered? 

The committee on Friday delivered its final, report, “Strengthened defence capability, Sweden as an Ally“, meeting the deadline given by the country’s defence minister Pål Jonson when he ordered the committee to develop proposals for a new defence bill in December 2022, with a total of four reports, the first three of which were delivered in April 2023, June 2023, December 2023. 

What have they recommended? 

The committee have recommended that Sweden’s budget is increased from 119 billion kronor a year in 2024 to 185 billion kronor in 2030, which would bring total spending to 2.6 percent of Sweden’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). 

The committee said it agreed with the recommendations given by Micael Byden, Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces in November 2023, which were that Sweden should increase or improve: 

  • air defence and in particular its cooperation within NATO’s Integrated Air and Missile Defence (IAMD)
  • its ability to combat air, land and sea drones 
  • its integration with NATO’s command system
  • its logistics, so that it can provide Host Nation Support and serve as a base for other units from other Nato countries. 
  • its capacity to operate with military units outside Sweden’s borders 

But the committee also made additional recommendations beyong those given by the armed forces, calling for: 

  • two new army brigades, so that Sweden would have three mechanised brigades and one infantry brigade by 2030
  • a new Norrland Infantry Regiment,
  • an increase in the number of conscripts trained a year from the current level of 8,000 to 10,000 in 2030 and 12,000 in 2032, and possibly to 14,000 in 2035
  • a boost in Sweden’s air defence capability, particularly to counter drone attacks 
  • stocking up on additional ammunition, including air-to-air and cruise missiles, and spare parts 
  • 20 new companies and platoons dedicated to defending Sweden’s territories 
  • increased refresher courses for conscripts, extra funding of voluntary defence organisations, and expansion of the officer education programme

How will the cost of funding this military expansion be met? 

While they were agreed on what needed to be done, party representatives on the committee did not agree on how much needed to be spent or how ti should be financed. 

The Centre Party representative said that spending should be higher, comprising 3 percent of GDP. 

The representatives from the Social Democrats, Left Party, and Green Party, added a statement to the report when they called for a section on how the extra spending should be financed.  

Peter Hultqvist, who served as defence minister under the former Social Democrat government, called for a new beredskapsskatt, or “Readiness Tax” to fund the increase, saying it was disappointing that the committee had not been able to agree on financing. 

“This demand is so big that it risks pushing other pressing requirements out of government spending plans,” he said. “There is a risk that healthcare, education and elderly care will be hit.” 

But Ulf Kristersson, Sweden’s prime minister, rejected the idea of a new tax. 

“It’s no secret that the parties on the left always see reasons to raise taxes, and that’s the case this time as well, I assume. But that is not our way forward,” he said. “We must be able to prioritise Swedish defense, and I understand that there is now complete agreement that it is an important political task.” 

Anna Starbrink, a defence spokesperson for the Liberals, the smallest party in the government, said that the Swedish Defence Commission had not in the past been tasked with developing funding proposals. 

“This is a new idea from the opposition and from the Social Democrats’ side is about nothing more than forcing through a new tax hike through the defence commission, and that’s something the rest of us don’t want to go along with,” she said. 

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