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CLIMATE CRISIS

Europe could soon face ‘nearly 100,000 deaths a year linked to extreme heat’

More than 61,000 people died due to the heat during Europe's record-breaking summer last year, a study said on Monday which called for more to be done to protect against even deadlier heatwaves expected in the coming years.

Europe could soon face 'nearly 100,000 deaths a year linked to extreme heat'
A pharmacy sign displaying the temperature of 44C amid a heatwave in Nantes, France in July 2022 (Photo by Loic VENANCE / AFP)

The world’s fastest warming continent experienced its hottest summer on record in 2022, as countries were hit by blistering heatwaves, crop-withering droughts and devastating wildfires.

The European Union’s statistics agency Eurostat had reported an unusually high number of excess deaths over the summer, but the amount directly linked to the heat had not been previously quantified.

A team of researchers looked at data on temperature and mortality from 2015 to 2022 for 823 regions across 35 European countries, covering a total of 543 million people.

The researchers from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health and France’s health research institute INSERM used models to predict the deaths attributable to temperature for each region in every week of 2022’s summer.

They estimated that 61,672 deaths were linked to the heat between May 30 and September 4 last year, according to the study published in the journal Nature Medicine.

A particularly intense heatwave in the week of July 18-24 caused more than 11,600 deaths alone, the study said.

“It is a very high number of deaths,” said Hicham Achebak, an INSERM researcher and study co-author.

“We knew the effect of heat on mortality after 2003, but with this analysis, we see that there is still a lot of work that needs to be done to protect the population,” he told AFP.

More than 70,000 excess deaths were recorded in 2003 during one of the worst heatwaves in European history.

Women and over-80s vulnerable

Last year France recorded the biggest rise in heat compared to its previous summer average, with a jump of 2.43C, the study said.

Switzerland was not far behind with a 2.30C rise, followed by Italy with 2.28C and Hungary with 2.13C.

Italy had the highest death toll linked to the heat with 18,010, followed by Spain with 11,324 and Germany with 8,173.

The majority of deaths were of people over the age of 80, the study said.

Around 63 percent of those who died due to the heat were women, the analysis said.

The difference became more stark over the age of 80, when women had a mortality rate 27 percent higher than men.

Previous research has shown that Europe is warming at twice the global average.

While the world has warmed an average of nearly 1.2C since the mid-1800s, last year Europe was around 2.3C hotter than pre industrial times.

Unless something is done to protect people against rising temperatures, by 2030 Europe will face an average of more than 68,000 heat-related deaths every summer, the new study estimated.

By 2040, there would be an average of more than 94,000 heat-linked deaths — and by 2050, the number could rise to over 120,000, the researchers said.

“These predictions are based on the current level of vulnerability and future temperatures,” Achebak said.

“If we take very effective measures, that vulnerability can be reduced,” he added.

Raquel Nunes, a health and climate expert at the UK’s Warwick University not involved in the research, said the study “highlights the urgent need for action to protect vulnerable populations from the impacts of heatwaves”.

Chloe Brimicombe, a climate scientist at Austria’s University of Graz, said it “demonstrates that heat prevention strategies need to be re-evaluated, with gender and age especially in mind”.

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CLIMATE CRISIS

How global warming is changing the weather in Austria

Extreme weather events have marked almost every month of 2023 in Austria. Experts say this will be the new norm. Here's what the weather could look like in the future.

How global warming is changing the weather in Austria

Heavy rain, storms, hail, and severe weather events set to intensify and become more common are among the key findings of Austria’s new Climate Status Report

“Heavy rain, storms and hail are no longer exceptional events and cause millions in damage. In future, we must join forces even more in the fight against climate change and take effective measures to counteract it”, said Astrid Eisenkopf,  Deputy Governor of Burgenland and Chairwoman of the Provincial Climate Protection Conference.

These events, which caused significant damage in 2023, are projected to become more commonplace, potentially transforming Austria’s weather patterns into a year-round barrage of extremes.

If 2023 repeats itself, here’s what a year could look like regarding the weather in Austria.

READ ALSO: Vast Vienna wastewater heat pumps showcase EU climate drive

January to April

According to the Climate Report, heavy snowfall dominated the weather in January last year. Austria could experience erratic snowfall patterns that disrupt the transportation and tourism industries. In February, storms and strong gusts of wind caused trees to topple. 

In April, late frosts hit the country, affecting the production of fruit trees. 

READ ALSO: What you should know to stay safe in the mountains

May to August

Spring months could be marked by torrential downpours, which could lead to flash floods and overwhelm existing infrastructure already burdened by glacial melt.

According to the report, these months last year saw numerous thunderstorms, with heavy rain, squalls, and hail sweeping across the country. Permafrost thawing caused landslides in Austria, which is set to become more common.

August is the peak summer month in Austria, and it also sees extreme storms and heatwaves. Last year, massive rainfall in the south of Austria caused countless damages, including flooding, mudslides, and landslides, as well as high lake and groundwater levels. In Carinthia, people had to be evacuated in 66 of 132 municipalities.

READ ALSO: Europe could soon face ‘nearly 100,000 deaths a year linked to extreme heat’

In Styria, 280 landslides occurred due to the days of rainfall. Almost 1,000 fire departments and 16,000 firefighters were deployed more than 6,000 times. In total, damage amounting to over 100 million euros was recorded from August 3rd to 6th.

Four heatwaves occurred over the course of the year, two of which lasted an unusually long time, lasting up to 18 days (July) and 16 days (August).

READ ALSO: How is Vienna planning to deal with heatwaves?

September to December

The report shows that September and October will go down as the “warmest autumn” in recorded history. 

The sun shone for an average of 1,605 hours over the year. At 1,275 mm, the Austrian average precipitation over the year was 21 percent higher, so it was hot and rained a lot. 

Several new state records were set for precipitation totals, especially in November and December. The year ended with the storm “Zoltan,” which damaged roofs, caused power outages, and blocked roads and rail links in almost all parts of the country.

 “The 2023 climate assessment shows that it is necessary to adapt as well as possible to the existing and expected future impacts.”, said Herbert Formayer, scientific director of the report and professor at the Institute of Meteorology and Climatology (BOKU).

READ ALSO: How to protect yourself during storm season in Austria

He added: “Not only the extent of the damage but also the risk potential for the population is increasing. Unfortunately, we saw this far too often last year: people who were in distress had to be evacuated or were cut off from their drinking water supply. 

‘Adaptation measures and climate protection are an absolute must and urgently needed, not only for agriculture and forestry, which are severely affected by extreme weather but also for the security of supply for the population.”

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