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CLIMATE CRISIS

April heat in Spain ‘almost impossible without climate change’

The extreme heat that engulfed the Iberian peninsula and parts of north Africa last week would have been "almost impossible without climate change," an international scientific study found Friday.

April heat in Spain 'almost impossible without climate change'
Austria's statistical agency says summer heatwaves were linked to higher death rates during hot weeks this summer. (Photo by CRISTINA QUICLER / AFP)

The “exceptional early heatwave” involved “local temperatures up to 20 degrees hotter than normal and April records being broken by up to 6 degrees,” said the report by the World Weather Attribution (WWA), whose scientists study the link between extreme weather events and climate change.

A mass of hot, dry warm air from North Africa reached the Iberia peninsula early last week, driving temperatures to record highs for April, with the mercury hitting 38.8 degrees Celsius (101.8 degrees Fahrenheit) in southern Spain and 36.9C in central Portugal.

Such temperatures only tend to occur in July.

In Morocco, local records were broken with temperatures soaring above 41C in some places, while in Algeria, they exceeded 40C.

“Human-caused climate change made the record-breaking heatwave in Spain, Portugal, Morocco and Algeria at least 100 times more likely and the heat would have been almost impossible without climate change,” the WWA report found.

It caused “temperatures up to 3.5 degrees C hotter than they would have been without climate change” provoking an event they described as “rare”.

“While Europe and North Africa have experienced heatwaves increasingly frequently over the last years, the recent heat in the western Mediterranean has been so extreme that it is also a rare event in today’s warmer climate,” it added.

“We will see more frequent and more intense heatwaves in the future as global warming continues,” Sjoukje Philip, a researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, told reporters at the report’s launch.

Such abnormally high temperatures followed “a historical multi-year drought in those regions, exacerbating the impacts of the heat on agriculture which is already threatened by an increasing water scarcity,” they said.

In Spain, which is known as Europe’s vegetable garden, the main farmers’ union, COAG, has warned that 60 percent of agricultural land is currently “suffocating” from the lack of rainfall.

With water reservoirs at half their capacity, Spain has asked Brussels to help by activating the European Union’s agriculture crisis reserve funds. 

Experts say parts of Spain are the driest in a thousand years, with the ongoing drought prompting some farmers to choose not to sow crops this year.

“The Mediterranean is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change in Europe,” said Friederike Otto, a senior climate science expert at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at London’s Imperial College.

“The region is already experiencing a very intense and long-lasting drought and these high temperatures at a time of the year when it should be raining is worsening the situation.”

After experiencing its hottest year on record in 2022 and the extreme April heatwave, Spain’s government was on Friday forced to come to the defence of the AEMET weather agency, whose forecasts have been met with a barrage of threats and abuse from climate conspiracy theorists.

“Murderers”, “Criminals”, “You’ll pay for this” and “We’re watching you” were just some of the anonymous messages sent to AEMET in recent weeks on social media, by email and even by phone.

“Enough is enough,” wrote Ecology Minister Teresa Ribera on social media.

“Lying, fuelling conspiracies and fear, being insulting… impoverishes us as a society and has unacceptable consequences,” she said.

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WEATHER

Will this summer in Spain be as hot as the previous two?

2023 was the world’s hottest summer on record, with many countries including Spain experiencing scorching temperatures. What are meteorologists forecasting for summer 2024?

Will this summer in Spain be as hot as the previous two?

2023 was in fact the second-hottest summer Spain had ever experienced – the hottest being just one year earlier in 2022.

During that year, 11,300 people died in Spain alone due to the abnormally high temperatures, marine life perished in the warming seas and even train tracks warped and became deformed.

All eyes are looking toward this summer to see what will happen and if it will be as roasting as the previous two. 

READ ALSO:

According to the climate service Copernicus-EU, above-normal temperatures are predicted across southern Europe this summer.

And in Spain, there is a 50-70 percent chance that this summer will be one of the hottest 20 percent on record, and it will properly begin in June.

According to Spain’s State Meteorological Agency AEMET, we have already seen an abnormal rise this May.

Its quarterly prediction, which will take us up to the end of July (typically the hottest part of the summer here in Spain), states that it will almost certainly be warmer than usual on the Mediterranean side of the country, as well as the Balearic and Canary Islands.

Copernicus agrees with these predictions and has indicated that it’s very likely to be hotter than normal in certain areas of the country. It particularly singled out the Valencia region, Murcia (except the south), northern Almería and Granada, Ibiza and Formentera and the western Canary Islands.

It’s getting more and more difficult to know exactly what ‘above normal’ temperatures are, considering what Spain has experienced the last few years, but the reference period that many experts are basing their predictions on is from 1991-2020.

When it comes to rainfall, Copernicus has forecast that the “most likely scenario is a summer with less rain” than usual.

AEMET agreed with the prediction, stating on its X account that “most likely rainfall will be less throughout the country than what is already normally scarce in the summer season”.

This is bad news for many parts of Spain, such as Catalonia, Andalusia and the Canary Islands, which have already been experiencing an ongoing drought over the past two years.

Luckily, spring rains have managed to fill reservoirs just enough to see us through the summer at this point, but more rain will definitely be needed come autumn.

READ ALSO: Will drought restrictions affect summer holidays in Spain?

While scientists agree the sizzling temperatures experienced over the past few summers are down to climate change, last year in 2023, the cyclical phenomenon known as El Niño also had a part to play in global weather patterns.

When the seas become cooler on average and it has a cooling effect on the planet, this is partly down to the effect of La Niña.

This year is supposed to be dominated by La Niña and according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the US, La Niña has a 49 percent chance of developing between June and August and a 69 percent chance between July and September.

But this doesn’t necessarily mean that this summer will be cooler than last year.

As of May 16th 2024, we’re undergoing a neutral period known as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Despite the global cooling effect of La Niña in 2022, it was still the planet’s sixth hottest year and the hottest in Spain ever recorded.

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