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WEATHER

Will Spain’s third heatwave be as bad as the last one?

Spain has already faced two scorching heatwaves so far this spring and summer, but with meteorologists predicting a possible third in the coming days, could it be as bad as July's?

Published: 2 August 2022 16:24 CEST
Will Spain's third heatwave be as bad as the last one?
A street thermometer reads 48C in Seville during Spain's first heatwave of the year in June 2022. These thermometers are renowned for not always being completely accurate as they're usually dark, made of metal and in direct sunlight for hours, but it certainly showcases how hot it got in Spain before summer had officially began. Photo: CRISTINA QUICLER/AFP

As Spain moves into August, the stifling temperatures look set to stay.

Record temperatures have caused forest fires across the country, killed people by the hundreds, forced large swathes of the population to stay inside all day in order escape the heat, and ‘tropical nights’ have made sleeping incredibly uncomfortable.

READ ALSO: Are Spain’s wildfires a risk to people’s health?

But will these temperatures continue throughout August?

With unnaturally warm temperatures continuing over the last weekend in July, experts are now considering whether the duration and intensity of the latest round of scorching weather will be enough to qualify as Spain’s third official heatwave (ola de calor) of the summer and how long it will last.

READ ALSO: How much does it cost to have air-conditioning at home in Spain?

With high temperatures predicted for the first week of August, if they continue further into the month, it is likely AEMET (Spain’s state meteorological agency) will declare a third heatwave, although, spokesman Rubén del Campo says it is looking likely to be “less intense and extreme than the previous two”.

For meteorologists to officially consider scorching weather to be a heatwave, the period of extreme heat must last at least three days and temperatures must exceed seasonal thresholds by 10 percent.

“It is possible that from last Sunday July 31st until at least Wednesday August 3rd or Thursday 4th, the thresholds of intensity, persistence and extension necessary to be able to catalog this episode as a heat wave will be exceeded,” the meteorologist added.

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According to AEMET forecasts, temperatures climbed on Monday August 2nd and Tuesday 3rd but will begin to decrease from Thursday.

High temperatures could continue for most of week, however. “In large areas of the interior of the northern half,” del Campo said, “and also in points in the centre and south, temperatures will be between 5C and 10C above normal for this time of year.”

One thing that won’t change, however, regardless of whether AEMET declares the heat an official heatwave, is the sweltering night temperatures. 

August temperature forecasts across Spain, showing the areas expected to be ‘warmer than normal’ (más cálido de lo normal), ‘slightly warmer than normal’ (ligeramente más cálido de lo normal) ‘quite a bit warmer than normal’ (bastante más cálido de lo normal) and ‘much warmer than normal’ (mucho más cálido de lo normal). Map: Eltiempo.es

The phenomenon of ‘tropical nights’, when temperatures stay above 20C during the night, have now become the norm up and down the Mediterranean coast and southern half of the country.

In some cases, temperatures through the night have hovered around 25C, making it very difficult to sleep or save on electricity bills.

READ ALSO: Ceiling fan vs air con in Spain: Which offers the better price-coolness ratio?

Spain’s previous heatwaves in 2022

The first heatwave began early this year, back on June 11th, and lasted almost a full week (officially until June 18th) and was the earliest heatwave Spain had suffered in almost fifty years, affecting 38 provinces across the country.

Incredibly, in places in southern Spain like Jaén, a staggering 44.5C was recorded on June 17th – far earlier than expected and is normal.
In mid-July, however, the second heatwave was much more intense – the third longest in Spanish history and the most severe.
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Temperature surpassing 40C spread across the country, affecting even the northernmost areas such as Galicia and Asturias, with the mercury touching 45C in the south, and killing over a thousand people.

Member comments

  1. In some earlier articles you mentioned leaving windows open at night. Good idea, but please make sure you have efficient fly/mosquito screens at the windows so that you are not at the mercy of the mozzies, moscas negras etc. My husband neglected to do this when he first came to Spain and slept with the balcon open to the stars; he was unrecognisable the next morning, his face etc (and I mean etcetera!) were so swollen and not in a good way!
    Also, the moths! Our village is nicknamed Velilla de potilla because we get plagues of moths. (Ribero Bajo de Aragon)

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WEATHER

Will this summer in Spain be as hot as the previous two?

2023 was the world’s hottest summer on record, with many countries including Spain experiencing scorching temperatures. What are meteorologists forecasting for summer 2024?

Published: 16 May 2024 11:05 CEST
Updated: 18 May 2024 07:44 CEST
Will this summer in Spain be as hot as the previous two?

2023 was in fact the second-hottest summer Spain had ever experienced – the hottest being just one year earlier in 2022.

During that year, 11,300 people died in Spain alone due to the abnormally high temperatures, marine life perished in the warming seas and even train tracks warped and became deformed.

All eyes are looking toward this summer to see what will happen and if it will be as roasting as the previous two. 

READ ALSO:

According to the climate service Copernicus-EU, above-normal temperatures are predicted across southern Europe this summer.

And in Spain, there is a 50-70 percent chance that this summer will be one of the hottest 20 percent on record, and it will properly begin in June.

According to Spain’s State Meteorological Agency AEMET, we have already seen an abnormal rise this May.

Its quarterly prediction, which will take us up to the end of July (typically the hottest part of the summer here in Spain), states that it will almost certainly be warmer than usual on the Mediterranean side of the country, as well as the Balearic and Canary Islands.

Copernicus agrees with these predictions and has indicated that it’s very likely to be hotter than normal in certain areas of the country. It particularly singled out the Valencia region, Murcia (except the south), northern Almería and Granada, Ibiza and Formentera and the western Canary Islands.

It’s getting more and more difficult to know exactly what ‘above normal’ temperatures are, considering what Spain has experienced the last few years, but the reference period that many experts are basing their predictions on is from 1991-2020.

When it comes to rainfall, Copernicus has forecast that the “most likely scenario is a summer with less rain” than usual.

AEMET agreed with the prediction, stating on its X account that “most likely rainfall will be less throughout the country than what is already normally scarce in the summer season”.

This is bad news for many parts of Spain, such as Catalonia, Andalusia and the Canary Islands, which have already been experiencing an ongoing drought over the past two years.

Luckily, spring rains have managed to fill reservoirs just enough to see us through the summer at this point, but more rain will definitely be needed come autumn.

READ ALSO: Will drought restrictions affect summer holidays in Spain?

While scientists agree the sizzling temperatures experienced over the past few summers are down to climate change, last year in 2023, the cyclical phenomenon known as El Niño also had a part to play in global weather patterns.

When the seas become cooler on average and it has a cooling effect on the planet, this is partly down to the effect of La Niña.

This year is supposed to be dominated by La Niña and according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the US, La Niña has a 49 percent chance of developing between June and August and a 69 percent chance between July and September.

But this doesn’t necessarily mean that this summer will be cooler than last year.

As of May 16th 2024, we’re undergoing a neutral period known as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Despite the global cooling effect of La Niña in 2022, it was still the planet’s sixth hottest year and the hottest in Spain ever recorded.

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