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COVID-19 STATS

What’s next for the Covid pandemic in Sweden?

The Swedish Public Health Agency believes that the spread of Covid-19 has peaked and will continue to decrease this spring, but a second scenario warns healthcare services to be prepared in case a new virus variant appears.

Published: 21 February 2022 17:35 CET
What's next for the Covid pandemic in Sweden?
State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell at a press conference in January 2022. Photo: Jonas Ekströmer/TT

The new scenarios presented by the Public Health Agency are not a prognosis, but are meant as a tool for healthcare services to plan for the coming months.

Scenario 0, which the agency believes is the most likely, is that the spread of infection will continue to decrease to a low level, where it will remain until the summer.

“We are in a new stage of the pandemic where there is broad immunological protection in the population, since many are vaccinated and have had the infection. Even if the spread of infection were to rise again, it is unlikely that many would become seriously ill,” state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said in a statement.

The agency’s second scenario, scenario 1, plans for a hypothetical new variant of the virus spreading from around March 20th. It assumes that this variant is as infectious as Omicron, with three-month protection for those who have previously been infected with Omicron.

In this scenario, the spread of infection would instead increase during spring 2022, reaching a peak in mid-May.

The agency said it believes the latter scenario to be unlikely, although it cannot be ruled out.

“This is why it is important that healthcare services are highly prepared,” Tegnell said. “Well-followed hygiene routines are the foundation for preventing the spread of infection. By continuing to monitor and test nationally within healthcare, we can see changes in the spread of infection and demand for healthcare, and can even discover new variants of the virus.”

These new scenarios cover the period from now until May 20th. New scenarios will be presented by the agency on April 20th.

The Public Health Agency stated that it does not currently see any reason to reintroduce measures to limit the spread of infection based on these scenarios, but added that “it is likely that Covid-19 will require further vaccinations for all or parts of the population during future winter seasons”. 

Currently, around 84 percent of Sweden’s over-12 population have been vaccinated with two or more doses.

Sweden ended most Covid restrictions on February 9th. On the same day it stopped testing the general public, limiting them to staff and patients in the health and elderly care sectors. That same week, a total of 62,406 new infections were confirmed, down 66 percent on the previous week. A total of 2,422,856 Covid infections have been confirmed in Sweden since the start of the pandemic.

The number of deaths with Covid reached its highest level in a year during those two weeks. On February 3rd, 55 deaths were reported, the highest number since January 30th last year. In total, 16,852 people have died in Sweden within 30 days after testing positive for Covid.

The number of Covid patients in intensive care has been on a downward curve since early February. Eighty-one Covid patients were receiving intensive care on Monday, according to public broadcaster SVT’s database – a decrease of ten patients in one week.

The Coronavirus Commission, appointed to examine Sweden’s coronavirus strategy, is set to present its final report later this week. You can read more about its findings in its first two reports here and here. The Local will cover the release of the final report on Friday.

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COVID-19

How much should we be concerned about rising Covid-19 rates in Sweden?

Covid-19 cases are once again escalating in more than a hundred countries, including Sweden, with the new Omicron variants, BA.4 and BA.5, both harder to track and more resistant to vaccines. Should we be worried?

Published: 5 July 2022 21:25 CEST
How much should we be concerned about rising Covid-19 rates in Sweden?

How much reason is there to worry that Covid-19 is back? 

It depends if you are an ordinary citizen or a hospital manager. 

Peter Nilsson, an epidemiology professor at Lund University, told The Local that as over 85 percent of the Swedish population had received at least two doses, he did not expect the number becoming seriously ill to return to the levels seen in 2020 and 2021.  

“The Swedish population has a high degree of vaccination immunisation and it is unlikely that the situation will get serious,” he said. 

But there is a nonetheless a risk that the rising rates of infection will put pressure on some hospitals, particularly when many staff are off for their summer breaks. 

“More people will need hospital care as a result, and if healthcare staff fall ill with Covid-19 at the same time as there is holiday staffing at many hospitals and care facilities, this may mean an increased burden on healthcare,” Sweden’s state epidemiologist Anders Lindblom said in a press release. 

Patrik Söderberg, the head doctor for the Stockholm Region, warned that the the rise in the number of patients with Covid-19 in hospitals was “a clear step in the wrong direction”. 

How and why are Covid-19 rates rising in Sweden? 

According to the Swedish Public Health Authority, over 3,000 cases of Covid-19 were reported in Sweden in the final two weeks of June, a 41% rise from the two previous weeks.

The reason is that the new BA.5 variant of omicron has become dominant in Sweden, and there is growing evidence that BA.5 is better at infecting both those who have received a vaccine and those who have previously contracted Covid-19. 

There is also clear evidence, however, that vaccinations continue to offer protection against life-threatening conditions and death, even with BA.5, and there is currently no evidence that the variant causes a more severe version of the disease. 

Although Lindblom said it was impossible to predict the length of time the virus would continue to spread, he warned that Sweden could see rising infection rates for several weeks to come. 

What’s been happening outside Sweden? 

According to Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the World Health Organization, the pandemic is changing, but not over. 

“Cases are on the rise in 110 countries, causing overall global cases to increase by 20%,” he said in a media briefing at the end of last month. “Our ability to track the virus is under threat as reporting and genomic sequences are declining, meaning it’s becoming harder to track Omicron and analyse future emerging variants.”

Some countries have responded by extending or bringing back Covid-19 restrictions. 

China has maintained some of the toughest restrictions, and while other countries have mostly been easing them, but as cases continue to rise, some may soon bring back restrictions such as mandatory masks and stricter contact tracing. 

Italy has extended the need to use masks on public transport until the end of September. Germany and Ireland are thinking about making them mandatory for a few months to curb the new, highly resistant variants.

The WHO and several other organisations are encouraging more vaccination campaigns and booster shots.

So is there a risk of Covid-19 restrictions returning in Sweden too? 

Sweden saw some of the world’s most relaxed regulations during the pandemic, and it looks unlikely that even those will be reimposed. The only change so far is that hospitals have once again made masks mandatory. 

What is being done to keep Covid-19 under control? 

Adults in risk groups and those over 65 are encouraged to take a top-up dose starting on September 1st. A fourth booster will be free for adults of various ages soon after that.

An autumn immunisation policy is also being developed, Anders Lindblom told Svenska Dagbladet, with details to be announced in the coming weeks. 

What Covid-19 recommendations still apply in Sweden? 

  • Everyone above the age of 12 should receive a Covid-19 vaccination, according to the Swedish Public Health Agency. It lessens the chance of developing fatal diseases and dying.
  • Anyone experiencing symptoms such as sore throat, runny nose, fever or cough are recommended to stay at home,  even those who have been vaccinated or who have previously had COVID-19.
  • Unvaccinated people are more likely to suffer significant COVID-19 illness. An unvaccinated person should take extra precautions and stay away from crowded indoor spaces to prevent getting sick.
  • The general population is no longer advised to undergo PCR testing, even if they experience symptoms, with the exception expectant mothers, those working in health and elderly care, and those providing care for patients with weakened immune systems who are at a high risk of developing a serious illness. 
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