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When will the current wave of Covid-19 infections in Norway peak?

Covid infections in Norway will peak in the coming weeks before trending downwards, modelling from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health has predicted.

Published: 17 January 2022 14:06 CET

Aker Brygge, Oslo

The Norwegian Institute of Public Health has said that the current wave of infection would peak at the turn of the month. Pictured is Aker Brygge, Oslo. Photo by Kamil Klyta on Unsplash

The current wave of coronavirus infections in Norway, driven by the Omicron variant, will likely peak at the turn of the month or in early February before beginning to trend downwards, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH) has predicted.

Following the peak, NIPH expects the number of hospitalisations to fall rapidly, based on what it has seen happen in South Africa.

“In South Africa, they had a very rapid increase in infection, and then they got a fairly rapid decrease even after they passed the peak of infection,” Line Vold, director of the infection control department at NIPH, told newspaper VG on Monday.

An updated risk assessment of the Omicron variant published by NIPH last week estimated that the peak would see fewer than 50,000 cases per day with the current level of Covid-19 restrictions in the country.

The scenario also estimated that there would be between 100 and 400 hospital admissions per day and around 500 and 2,500 patients in hospital with Covid at any one time. The highest number of patients with Covid-19 in Norwegian hospitals during the pandemic so far has been around 350.

READ ALSO: What are the current rules for Covid-19 self-isolation in Norway?

In the report, director-general of the NIPH Camilla Stoltenberg emphasised that some uncertainty remained around the projected numbers.

“We still cannot predict the future, the scenarios are the best option we have,” Stoltenberg said in the report.

If no measures were in place, the institute said that cases could top 150,000 daily infections and see as many as 700 daily hospital admissions.

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Covid-19: European summer holidays threatened by rise of subvariants

Several Western European nations have recently recorded their highest daily case numbers in months, due in part to Omicron sub-variants BA.4 and BA.5.

The increase in cases has spurred calls for increased vigilance across a continent that has relaxed most if not all coronavirus restrictions.

The first resurgence came in May in Portugal, where BA.5 propelled a wave that hit almost 30,000 cases a day at the beginning of June. That wave has since started to subside, however.

READ ALSO: KEY POINTS: German Health Ministry lays out autumn Covid plan

Italy recorded more than 62,700 cases on Tuesday, nearly doubling the number from the previous week, the health ministry said.

Germany meanwhile reported more than 122,000 cases on Tuesday.

France recorded over 95,000 cases on Tuesday, its highest daily number since late April, representing a 45-percent increase in just a week.

Austria this Wednesday recorded more than 10,000 for the first time since April.

READ ALSO: Italy’s transport mask rule extended to September as Covid rate rises

Cases have also surged in Britain, where there has been a seven-fold increase in Omicron reinfection, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The ONS blamed the rise on the BA.4 and BA.5 variants, but also said Covid fell to the sixth most common cause of death in May, accounting for 3.3 percent of all deaths in England and Wales.

BA.5 ‘taking over’

Mircea Sofonea, an epidemiologist at the University of Montpellier, said Covid’s European summer wave could be explained by two factors.

READ ALSO: 11,000 new cases: Will Austria reintroduce restrictions as infection numbers rise?

One is declining immunity, because “the protection conferred by an infection or a vaccine dose decreases in time,” he told AFP.

The other came down to the new subvariants BA.4 and particularly BA.5, which are spreading more quickly because they appear to be both more contagious and better able to escape immunity.

Olivier Schwartz, head of the virus and immunity unit at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, said BA.5 was “taking over” because it is 10 percent more contagious than BA.2.

“We are faced with a continuous evolution of the virus, which encounters people who already have antibodies — because they have been previously infected or vaccinated — and then must find a selective advantage to be able to sneak in,” he said.

READ ALSO: Tourists: What to do if you test positive for Covid in France

But are the new subvariants more severe?

“Based on limited data, there is no evidence of BA.4 and BA.5 being associated with increased infection severity compared to the circulating variants BA.1 and BA.2,” the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said last week.

But rising cases can result in increasing hospitalisations and deaths, the ECDC warned.

Could masks be making a comeback over summer? (Photo by OSCAR DEL POZO / AFP)

Alain Fischer, who coordinates France’s pandemic vaccine strategy, warned that the country’s hospitalisations had begun to rise, which would likely lead to more intensive care admissions and eventually more deaths.

However, in Germany, virologist Klaus Stohr told the ZDF channel that “nothing dramatic will happen in the intensive care units in hospitals”.

Return of the mask?

The ECDC called on European countries to “remain vigilant” by maintaining testing and surveillance systems.

“It is expected that additional booster doses will be needed for those groups most at risk of severe disease, in anticipation of future waves,” it added.

Faced with rising cases, last week Italy’s government chose to extend a requirement to wear medical grade FFP2 masks on public transport until September 30.

“I want to continue to recommend protecting yourself by getting a second booster shot,” said Italy’s Health Minister Roberto Speranza, who recently tested positive for Covid.

READ ALSO: Spain to offer fourth Covid-19 vaccine dose to ‘entire population’

Fischer said France had “clearly insufficient vaccination rates” and that a second booster shot was needed.

Germany’s government is waiting on expert advice on June 30 to decide whether to reimpose mandatory mask-wearing rules indoors.

The chairman of the World Medical Association, German doctor Frank Ulrich Montgomery, has recommended a “toolbox” against the Covid wave that includes mask-wearing, vaccination and limiting the number of contacts.

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