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COVID-19 STATS

‘The fourth wave is contained’: Italy reports falling Covid infection rates for a second week

Italian health experts say Italy's Covid-19 fourth wave has been contained after the infection rate dropped sharply over the past two weeks.

Published: 17 September 2021 19:21 CEST
'The fourth wave is contained': Italy reports falling Covid infection rates for a second week
Photo: Marco Bertorello/AFP

“The curve in Italy has remained contained thanks to vaccinations,” stated Silvio Brusaferro, president of Italy’s Higher Health Institute (ISS), at a press conference announcing the latest official data on Friday afternoon.

Health Ministry Director of Prevention Gianni Rezza described the latest findings as  “comforting” and said the health situation across Italy was “quite positive”.

The head of Italy’s evidence-based medicine foundation Gimbe agreed that the data showed the fourth wave of contagion in the country had been contained.

“The gradual increase in vaccination coverage and individuals’ adherence to correct behaviour has made it possible to contain the fourth wave, and the new cases and hospitalizations have finally begun to decline”, wrote Dr Nino Cartabellotta in Gimbe’s latest monitoring report published on Thursday.

READ ALSO: Almost all hospitalised Covid-19 patients in Italy are unvaccinated, says health watchdog

However, Cartabellotta warned that the downward trend may not last, adding: “with autumn upon us and the reopening of schools for 9.4 million people, in addition to the under 12s who have not yet received even one dose of the vaccine, there is a risk of a resumption of the circulation of the virus and an increase in hospitalizations, with consequent limitations in assistance to non-Covid-19 patients “

The latest official data shows that the country’s Rt number fell to 0.85 in the fourteen days between August 25th and September 7th, from 0.92 the preceding week.

Rt, the effective reproduction number, is the average number of people that one infected person will pass on a virus to – so an Rt of below one means that an infection rate is decreasing.

The health ministry’s report also said that the average number of new cases across Italy was down to 54 per 100,000 inhabitants in the week of September 10th-16th, compared to 64 the previous week.

The data from the past week also showed that the numbers of new Covid patient admissions to both intensive care and hospital wards had also continued to decline overall.

Despite having the highest incidence of Covid in the country, Sicily’s case rate has actually decreased from 148.7 per 100,000 inhabitants last week and 190.4 per 100,000 between August 27th and September 2nd.

The three areas of the country with the highest infection rates are Sicily, Calabria and the autonomous province of Bolzano, with Sicily showing an incidence of 109.1 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants, Bolzano 90.5, and Calabria 84.8.

Calabria risks joining Sicily in the ‘yellow’ zone, the second of Italy’s four-tier Covid risk zones, according to Italian media reports.

Yellow zone restrictions require that masks are worn in all public spaces, including outdoors, and that restaurants may only seat a maximum of four people per table unless the group is cohabiting.

There is no evening curfew, and travel in and out of yellow zones is not restricted.

READ ALSO: Yellow zone: Which Italian regions could face new Covid restrictions in September?

Gianluca CHININEA / AFP

Currently all of Italy’s regions besides Sicily are classed as low-risk ‘white zones’, with the lowest level of restrictions.

Bolzano, the autonomous province of Trento, and the regions of Abruzzo and Molise are now classified as moderate-risk zones, while Italy’s 17 remaining regions and autonomous provinces remain low-risk, the health ministry report states.

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COVID-19

Germany’s weekly Covid infection rate rises above 500

Germany recorded a weekly Covid incidence of more than 500 per 100,000 people on Monday as health experts warn that the fifth wave of the pandemic has only just begun.

Published: 17 January 2022 13:09 CET
Bar in Berlin's Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg district, which has the highest incidence in the country.
People sit outside bars in the Berlin district of Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, where incidences are currently the highest in the country. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Christophe Gateau

On Monday, the 7-day incidence of Covid infections per 100,000 people stood at 528, up from 515 the day before and 376 a week ago. 

Infections have been rising rapidly as the highly transmissible Omicron variant tightens its hold in Germany. Monday marked the fourth day in a row in which the country posted record incidences.

Since the first incidence of the variant was discovered in the country around seven weeks ago, Omicron has swiftly taken over as the dominant variant in Germany.

It currently accounts for around 73 percent of Covid infections and is expected to almost entirely replace the Delta variant this week. 

Though Omicron generally causes a less severe illness than Delta, experts are concerned that deaths and hospitalisations could remain high due to the unprecedented number of cases Germany could see.

Unlike Delta, Omicron has a large number of mutations that allow it to evade previously built up immunity through vaccinations and illness. 

The World Health Organisation has warned that half of all Europeans could be infected with the virus by spring. 

“After the temporary decline in case numbers, severe disease courses and deaths towards the end of 2021 in the fourth wave, the fifth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic has begun in Germany with the dominant circulation of the omicron variant,” the Robert Koch Institute wrote in its weekly report on Thursday.  

Since the first Omicron case was discovered in Germany, there have been 191,422 suspected or proven cases of the variant.

As Welt data journalist Olaf Gersemann pointed out in Twitter, the number of Omicron cases has increased sixfold within a fortnight. 

Increase in hospitalisations

Before this weekend, Germany had hit its previous peak of infections back in November, when the country posted a 7-day incidence of 485 per 100,000 people at during the peak of the fourth wave.

Since then, Covid measures such contact restrictions and blanket 2G (entry only for the vaccinated and recovered) or 2G-plus (vaccinated or recovered with a negative test) have been relatively effective at turning the tide. 

READ ALSO:

For the past few weeks however, infections have been on the up once again as the Omicron fifth wave begins.

The incidence of hospitalisations in the country appears to also be on the rise again after a few weeks of decline. On Friday, the 7-day incidence of hospitalisations stood at 3.24 per 100,000 people, up from 3.13 the day before.

Over the weekend, Health Minister Karl Lauterbach warned that Omicron could place additional pressure on the general hospital wards as fewer people end up in intensive care. 

“Depending on how things develop, we may face shortages not only in the intensive care units, but also in the normal wards. There is a threat of entire departments being closed,” he said.

“Rapid spread of the virus would mean hundreds of thousands will become seriously ill and we will have to mourn many thousands of deaths again.” 

Karl Lauterbach

Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD) speaks at a weekly press conference on Friday, January 14th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Kay Nietfeld
 

Northern states post record incidences

Since the start of the Omicron wave, northern Germany has been disproportionately affected by the virus.

As of Monday, the city-state of Bremen had the highest incidence in the country, with 1389 new cases per 100,000 people recorded in a week.

This was followed by Berlin, which currently has a 7-day incidence of 948, and Hamburg, which recorded a 7-day incidence of 806. The district with the highest incidence in Berlin Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, which posted a weekly incidence of 1597 on Monday. 

In contrast to the fourth wave, the lowest Covid incidences were recorded in the eastern states of Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt and Saxony. 

On Monday, Thuringia had a weekly incidence of 198 per 100,000 people, while Saxony’s incidence was 249 and Saxony-Anhalt’s was 280.

Somewhat inexplicably, the incidence has been declining in Thuringia in recent weeks, though there is speculation that this could be to do with the fact that Omicron has not yet spread in the state.

Nine of the sixteen German states have incidences of more than 500 per 100,000 people. 

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