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SCHLESWIG-HOLSTEIN

Covid-19 variant: Is the Flensburg outbreak a red flag for Germany?

The northern German city of Flensburg is going into a tough lockdown after a huge rise in Covid-19 cases - many of them stemming from the B.1.1.7 variant that originated in the UK. What does this mean for Germany?

Covid-19 variant: Is the Flensburg outbreak a red flag for Germany?
The city of Flensburg. Photo: DPA

Residents in the Schleswig-Holstein city, which lies close to the Danish border, will face a night time curfew, while contact restrictions will be tightened.

The area is seeing a large Covid outbreak fuelled by the more contagious variant discovered in Britain.

On Friday there were on average just over 177 coronavirus cases per 100,000 residents within a seven-day period in Flensburg – while the overall number for the state of Schleswig-Holstein was 49.1.

The 7-day incidence for Germany on Friday stood at 56.8. The number has been falling in the previous weeks, but has stagnated slightly in recent days, leading experts to worry that the spread of coronavirus variants will push up infections.

READ ALSO: How and why Germany tightened its target for lifting lockdown measures

Schleswig-Holstein's state premier Daniel Günther, of Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats, said the infection figures in Flensburg, which has a population of around 89,500, were a “cause for great concern”.

Flensburg's mayor Simone Lange, of the Social Democrats, said the “constantly high incidence rate and a share of mutations in the infections of well over 33 percent,” meant the city needed to take swift and strong action.

A study by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) even suggests that mutations could now be responsible for more than half of the cases in Flensburg. For comparison, the British variant of the virus accounts for around 22 per cent of cases in Germany, federal Health Minister Jens Spahn announced this week.

Does Flensburg show what could be in store for Germany?

SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach said the Flensburg cases is the “first example of what we could face with further spread of UK B.1.1.7”.

Lauterbach said a strict lockdown until the incidence is below 35 again was needed.

For at least a week and possibly longer, Flensburg residents will only be allowed to leave their homes from 9pm to 5am if they have a valid reason to do so. Visits to the doctor and to go to work are allowed.

Contact restrictions will also be tightened: a household in Flensburg won't be allowed to meet with anyone outside the household. Exceptions apply to visits to hospitals, couples who live apart, and children with separated parents.

At the moment across Germany, households are allowed to meet with one other person and they should have a social bubble to avoid meeting lots of different people.

IN NUMBERS: What is the coronavirus situation around Germany?

What's happening in Denmark?

There are concerns about the British variant spreading in Denmark, which lies just a few kilometres from Flensburg. Tighter border controls were brought in this week in Denmark's border regions, including with Germany.

According to preliminary figures from the Danish Statens Serum Institut (SSI), which are updated daily, the British Covid mutant was detected in 47.4 percent of the sequenced coronavirus samples from the previous week.

The share was reportedly just under two percent at the end of December.

The SSI expects the variant to account for more than 80 percent of all Covid cases in Denmark as early as the beginning of March. As a result, the reproductive number, which shows how many people an infected person goes onto infect, is likely to increase to 1.1, according to experts – even without relaxing measures.

When the R number is above 1, the number of infection goes up quickly.

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HEALTH

Could there be a new wave of Covid-19 in Germany this autumn?

It’s back again: amid sinking temperatures, the incidence of Covid-19 has been slowly rising in Germany. But is this enough to merit worrying about the virus?

Could there be a new wave of Covid-19 in Germany this autumn?

More people donning face masks in supermarkets, friends cancelling plans last minute due to getting sick with Covid-19. We might have seen some of those familiar reminders recently that the coronavirus is still around, but could there really be a resurgence of the virus like we experienced during the pandemic years?

According to virologists, the answer seems to be ‘maybe’: since July, the number of people newly infected with Covid-19 has been slowly rising from a very low level.

According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), nine people per 100,000 inhabitants became newly infected in Germany last week. A year ago, there were only around 270 reported cases.

Various Corona variants are currently on the loose in the country. According to the RKI,  the EG.5 (also called Eris) and XBB.1.16 lines were each detected in the week ending September 3rd with a share of just under 23 percent. 

The highly mutated variant BA.2.86 (Pirola), which is currently under observation by the World Health Organisation (WHO), also arrived in the country this week, according to RKI. 

High number of unreported case

The RKI epidemiologists also warned about a high number of unreported cases since hardly any testing is done. They pointed out that almost half of all registered sewage treatment plants report an increasing viral load in wastewater tests.

The number of hospital admissions has also increased slightly, but are still a far cry from the occupation rate amid the pandemic. Last week it was two per 100,000 inhabitants. In the intensive care units, only 1.2 percent of all beds are occupied by Covid-19 patients.

Still, a good three-quarters (76.4 percent) of people in Germany have been vaccinated at least twice and thus have basic immunity, reported RKI. 

Since Monday, doctors’ offices have been vaccinating with the adapted vaccine from Biontech/Pfizer, available to anyone over 12 years old, with a vaccine for small children set to be released the following week and one for those between 5 and 11 to come out October 2nd.

But Health Minister Karl Lauterbach has so far only recommended that people over 60 and those with pre-existing conditions get vaccinated.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Who should get a Covid jab this autumn in Germany?

“The pandemic is over, the virus remains,” he said. “We cannot predict the course of coming waves of corona, but it is clear that older people and people with pre-existing conditions remain at higher risk of becoming severely ill from Covid-19”

The RKI also recommended that people with a cold voluntarily wear a mask. Anyone exhibiting cough, cold, sore throat or other symptoms of a respiratory illness should voluntarily stay at home for three to five days and take regular corona self-tests. 

However, further measures such as contact restrictions are not necessary, he said.

One of many diseases

As of this autumn, Covid-19 could be one of many respiratory diseases. As with influenza, there are no longer absolute infection figures for coronavirus.

Saarbrücken pharmacist Thorsten Lehr told German broadcaster ZDF that self-protection through vaccinations, wearing a mask and getting tested when symptoms appear are prerequisites for surviving the Covid autumn well. 

Only a new, more aggressive mutation could completely turn the game around, he added.

On April 7th of this year, Germany removed the last of its over two-year long coronavirus restrictions, including mask-wearing in some public places.

READ ALSO: German doctors recommend Covid-19 self-tests amid new variant

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