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France unveils big-spending budget to tackle Covid-shock and pledges no new taxes

France launched a free-spending budget plan on Monday, saying a fresh spike in new Covid-19 cases justified its unprecedented loosening of the purse strings.

France unveils big-spending budget to tackle Covid-shock and pledges no new taxes
French finance minister Bruno Le Maire. Photo: AFP

After €460 billion of emergency spending this year to save the economy from the virus fallout, the government built its 2021 budget plan around a €100-billion “recovery plan”, first announced this month and partly funded by EU money.

The budget came after France's health services on Saturday reported 14,412 new virus cases over the previous 24 hours – only slightly lower than the record 16,000 registered on both Thursday and Friday.

READ ALSO IN NUMBERS Covid-19 cases, hospitalisations and deaths in France

 

The fresh spike threatens to overwhelm hospitals, health officials warned, while the government imposed fresh curbs to limit the spread of the virus, including on restaurants, bars and sports facilities.

“There is no reason to give up the idea of a recovery just because the health difficulties have re-emerged,” Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told a news conference.

The spending boost is to help the French economy to rebound strongly next year, by eight percent according to the budget, after crashing by an expected 10 percent this year, Le Maire said.

“We are implementing this recovery fund so it can be used up quickly and have the greatest possible impact on growth,” he said.

But the growth forecast immediately drew criticism from France's high council for public finance, a state body charged with making sure that government budgetary assumptions are realistic.

The growth target was “pro-active”, given the “great uncertainties” weighing on the economic outlook because of the coronavirus, the council said.

It also called on the government to be mindful of public debt which has ballooned since the start of the crisis.

France's annual deficit is estimated at 10.2 percent of GDP this year, and is to come in at 6.7 percent in 2021, the government said.

This compares with a permitted ceiling of three percent for eurozone countries, which the EU has however lifted temporarily as governments grapple with the crisis.

The government has promised that it will not raise taxes to pay for the recovery.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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