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INFECTION

Germany’s coronavirus infection rate drops below critical value of 1

Germany's coronavirus reproduction rate has dipped below the critical threshold of 1 after three days above this number.

Published: 13 May 2020 09:51 CEST
Updated: 13 May 2020 14:21 CEST
Germany's coronavirus infection rate drops below critical value of 1
A sign urging people to keep 1.5 metre distance in Schillig, Lower Saxony. Photo: DPA

Late on Tuesday May 12th, the Robert Koch Institute for public health and disease control announced in its daily report that the so-called R rate or estimated reproduction number was sitting at 0.94 in Germany.

That means on average a person with coronavirus infects less than one other person. The report went on to say that a “renewed upward trend” is not expected in Germany.

The RKI added that the overall number of cases in Germany was going down. However, there were still clusters of new cases, such as those reported at slaughterhouses, that would have an impact on the R value.

On Monday the RKI had registered an R number of 1.07 and on Sunday it was at 1.1, meaning 10 people with Covid-19 would have infected on average 11 others.

The RKI has warned that for the infection rate to be deemed under control and slowing down, the number has to stay below one. Just last Wednesday, as Germany announced easing of restrictions, the number stood at 0.65.

READ ALSO:

The rising reproduction number had caused alarm, particularly after Chancellor Angela Merkel declared recently that Germany had left the “first phase” of the pandemic behind it and federal states announced relaxations of social restrictions.

READ ALSO: 'First phase of coronavirus pandemic behind us,' says Merkel

As of Wednesday May 13th, a total of 173,171 coronavirus infections had been registered in Germany, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. Of those cases, there have been around 7,738 deaths and 147,298 people have recovered.

Coronavirus 'not gone'

Earlier on Tuesday, RKI Vice President Lars Schaade said coronavirus “is not gone,” but the risk of infection is significantly lower than a few weeks ago.

The reason, he said, was that the number of daily new infections was not decreasing but rather approaching a plateau. It is therefore all the more important to continue to observe the rules of hygiene, Schaade explained.

However, the risk is significantly lower than four weeks ago, he added.

In the meantime, clusters of large outbreaks, such as the recent cases in slaughterhouses, have had a greater effect on the value than in the case of higher infection numbers overall, explained Schaade. 

“We can estimate that these recent outbreaks have increased reproductive numbers,” he said. If the outbreaks are under control, the R value could drop again. 

In the long term, the R number should not remain significantly above 1 – otherwise the number of cases would increase. 

Schaade said that values of 1.2 or 1.3 over a longer period of time would require very close attention and action on how the situation could be counteracted.

In future, the RKI will also provide a so-called “smoothed out R-value”, which would better balance out fluctuations. This would be suited to depict longer-term trends. 

“Last week, this stable R-value was not above 1 on any day”, Schaade stressed.

READ ALSO: German towns to reimpose shutdowns over coronavirus clusters

'Stay at home'

In the past week, between 700 and 1,300 new corona infections per day were reported to the RKI, and on Monday almost 1,000 cases were reported. 

“The numbers remain roughly comparable to last week's figures,” he said. Lower numbers on weekends are considered normal, for example due to delays in reporting by health authorities and closed doctors' offices.

The R value reflects the infection rate from about one and a half weeks earlier. The value of 1.07 reported on Monday, for example, reflects the situation in the period from April 28th to May 3rd.

The new cases from the past three days are not included in the estimate, because they are not reliable at this stage and can result in fluctuations. The R value is also only one of several ways of measuring the epidemic situation, Schaade said.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED – Germany's plan for post-lockdown life with coronavirus

To help keep the virus at bay, among other things Schaade said it is important for people in Germany to stay at home as much as possible, limit contacts and keep a distance to other people.

Despite the current low number of new infections in some regions, the number of undetected cases should not be ignored, Schaade said. 

People who don't know they have the virus could cause the situation to flare up again if they don't stick to rules, he said.

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HEALTH

Could there be a new wave of Covid-19 in Germany this autumn?

It’s back again: amid sinking temperatures, the incidence of Covid-19 has been slowly rising in Germany. But is this enough to merit worrying about the virus?

Published: 20 September 2023 12:05 CEST
Updated: 20 September 2023 22:22 CEST
Could there be a new wave of Covid-19 in Germany this autumn?

More people donning face masks in supermarkets, friends cancelling plans last minute due to getting sick with Covid-19. We might have seen some of those familiar reminders recently that the coronavirus is still around, but could there really be a resurgence of the virus like we experienced during the pandemic years?

According to virologists, the answer seems to be ‘maybe’: since July, the number of people newly infected with Covid-19 has been slowly rising from a very low level.

According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), nine people per 100,000 inhabitants became newly infected in Germany last week. A year ago, there were only around 270 reported cases.

Various Corona variants are currently on the loose in the country. According to the RKI,  the EG.5 (also called Eris) and XBB.1.16 lines were each detected in the week ending September 3rd with a share of just under 23 percent. 

The highly mutated variant BA.2.86 (Pirola), which is currently under observation by the World Health Organisation (WHO), also arrived in the country this week, according to RKI. 

High number of unreported case

The RKI epidemiologists also warned about a high number of unreported cases since hardly any testing is done. They pointed out that almost half of all registered sewage treatment plants report an increasing viral load in wastewater tests.

The number of hospital admissions has also increased slightly, but are still a far cry from the occupation rate amid the pandemic. Last week it was two per 100,000 inhabitants. In the intensive care units, only 1.2 percent of all beds are occupied by Covid-19 patients.

Still, a good three-quarters (76.4 percent) of people in Germany have been vaccinated at least twice and thus have basic immunity, reported RKI. 

Since Monday, doctors’ offices have been vaccinating with the adapted vaccine from Biontech/Pfizer, available to anyone over 12 years old, with a vaccine for small children set to be released the following week and one for those between 5 and 11 to come out October 2nd.

But Health Minister Karl Lauterbach has so far only recommended that people over 60 and those with pre-existing conditions get vaccinated.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Who should get a Covid jab this autumn in Germany?

“The pandemic is over, the virus remains,” he said. “We cannot predict the course of coming waves of corona, but it is clear that older people and people with pre-existing conditions remain at higher risk of becoming severely ill from Covid-19”

The RKI also recommended that people with a cold voluntarily wear a mask. Anyone exhibiting cough, cold, sore throat or other symptoms of a respiratory illness should voluntarily stay at home for three to five days and take regular corona self-tests. 

However, further measures such as contact restrictions are not necessary, he said.

One of many diseases

As of this autumn, Covid-19 could be one of many respiratory diseases. As with influenza, there are no longer absolute infection figures for coronavirus.

Saarbrücken pharmacist Thorsten Lehr told German broadcaster ZDF that self-protection through vaccinations, wearing a mask and getting tested when symptoms appear are prerequisites for surviving the Covid autumn well. 

Only a new, more aggressive mutation could completely turn the game around, he added.

On April 7th of this year, Germany removed the last of its over two-year long coronavirus restrictions, including mask-wearing in some public places.

READ ALSO: German doctors recommend Covid-19 self-tests amid new variant

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