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HEALTH

ANALYSIS: Why have there been so many coronavirus deaths in Italy?

The Italian death toll reached 463 on Monday, with Italy now recording more than half of all the deaths reported outside China since the coronavirus outbreak began. But why do there seem to be so many deaths related to the virus in Italy?

ANALYSIS: Why have there been so many coronavirus deaths in Italy?
A woman in Milan. Italy's coronavirus victims had an average age of 81. Photo: Miguel Medina/AFP

Health officials now say the total number of confirmed cases in Italy has passed 9,000.

This is the total number of people in Italy confirmed to have contracted the virus since the beginning of the outbreak, a figure which includes the deceased and 724 recovered patients.

(These numbers are changing daily: view the latest figures here.)

 
Italy has the highest number of fatalities related to the virus outside China.
 
What do we know about those who have died?

Fatalities have now been reported in the Italian regions of Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Veneto, Marche, Liguria, Piedmont, Lazio, Puglia and Friuli Venezia-Giulia.

The vast majority of cases (over 5,000) as well as deaths (333) have been in Lombardy. The large majority of the deceased were male, and all were Italian citizens, government data shows.

Many were in their 80s or 90s, and were already suffering from serious health problems, including cancer, when the coronavirus infection was detected.

READ ALSO: The everyday precautions to take against coronavirus if you're in Italy

But while Italian health officials have been quick to point out that the people who've died so far have had an average age of 81, many of them with pre-existing health conditions, that fact does very little to reassure people – particularly in a country with a population as elderly as Italy's.

EU statistics show Italy has the oldest population in Europe by almost any count.

It has the lowest percentage of young people, and a higher percentage of those aged over 65 (22.6 percent as of 2018) than any of the other member EU states.

Its median age is now 45.9 years compared to the EU's median of 42.8, higher than any other European country except Germany.

The country's particularly elderly population was cited as a factor in the government's decision to close down all schools in the country until at least March 15th.

Photo: AFP

While the infection rate among young people appears to be low, there are concerns that schoolchildren may more easily pass on infections to their older family members, particularly in a country with such close-knit family ties.

“The measures introduced in these days aim to avoid a large epidemic wave,” Italy’s National Health Institute said in an emailed statement on Thursday.

“In the case of the coronavirus we must consider the fact that Italy has an elderly population, actually much older than the Chinese one, which needs to be protected from the contagion.”

Italian health authorities also advised people over 75 years of age to stay indoors and limit social contact for the next month. The same advice was given to over-65s with health conditions, and to anyone with a respiratory illness.

Is Italy's fatality rate really higher than the global average?

A look at global statistics gives the impression that Italy has a particularly high death toll. But how true is that?

While the global case-fatality ratio for the coronavirus is still being assessed, it is currently estimated at 3.4 percent by the World Health Organization – up from their previous provisional figure of two percent.

This figure is based on WHO studies on Chinese patients. Experts say this figure is likely to change again and add that many cases are probably not being detected.

Infections have probably been underreported given that many are asymptomatic or very mild, the WHO said.

According to Italian government data, 4.25 percent of people confirmed to have the coronavirus in Italy have died, one of the highest rates in the world.

However, again, it is difficult to obtain an accurate figure because of the high probability that many cases both in Italy and globally are going undetected.

Many also believe the fact Italy has carried out tens of thousands of tests on people in the country is one reason why the number of detected cases appears so high. As we wrote last week, Italy was left with little other choice but to conduct blanket testing.

More than 80 percent of patients infected with the virus have mild disease and recover, while 14 percent have severe diseases such as pneumonia, the WHO stated.

Find all The Local's coverage of the coronavirus outbreak in Italy here

Member comments

  1. I’m not the only one to say this – though it does sound callous – that elderly people in their 80s and 90s will die of something and pneumonia has in the past been called “the old man’s friend”. Clearly the authorities will do all they can to stem deaths, but this is what life is about. It would be considerably more concerning if the illness affected young people disproportionately.

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HEALTH

Italy’s schools warned to ‘avoid gatherings’ as Covid cases rise

As Italy’s new school year began, masks and hand sanitiser were distributed in schools and staff were asked to prevent gatherings to help stem an increase in Covid infections.

Italy’s schools warned to ‘avoid gatherings’ as Covid cases rise

Pupils returned to school in many parts of Italy on Monday and authorities said they were distributing masks and hand sanitiser amid a post-summer increase in the number of recorded cases of Covid–19.

“The advice coming from principals, teachers and janitors is to avoid gatherings of students, especially in these first days of school,” Mario Rusconi, head of Italy’s Principals’ Association, told Rai news on Monday.

He added that local authorities in many areas were distributing masks and hand sanitizer to schools who had requested them.

“The use of personal protective equipment is recommended for teachers and students who are vulnerable,” he said, confirming that “use is not mandatory.”

A previous requirement for students to wear masks in the classroom was scrapped at the beginning of the last academic year.

Walter Ricciardi, former president of the Higher Health Institute (ISS), told Italy’s La Stampa newspaper on Monday that the return to school brings the risk of increased Covid infections.

Ricciardi described the health ministry’s current guidelines for schools as “insufficient” and said they were “based on politics rather than scientific criteria.”

READ ALSO:

Recorded cases of Covid have increased in most Italian regions over the past three weeks, along with rates of hospitalisation and admittance to intensive care, as much of the country returns to school and work following the summer holidays.

Altogether, Italy recorded 21,309 new cases in the last week, an increase of 44 percent compared to the 14,863 seen the week before.

While the World Health Organisation said in May that Covid was no longer a “global health emergency,” and doctors say currently circulating strains of the virus in Italy are not a cause for alarm, there are concerns about the impact on elderly and clinically vulnerable people with Italy’s autumn Covid booster campaign yet to begin.

“We have new variants that we are monitoring but none seem more worrying than usual,” stated Fabrizio Maggi, director of the Virology and Biosafety Laboratories Unit of the Lazzaro Spallanzani Institute for Infectious Diseases in Rome

He said “vaccination coverage and hybrid immunity can only translate into a milder disease in young and healthy people,” but added that “vaccinating the elderly and vulnerable continues to be important.”

Updated vaccines protecting against both flu and Covid are expected to arrive in Italy at the beginning of October, and the vaccination campaign will begin at the end of October, Rai reported.

Amid the increase in new cases, Italy’s health ministry last week issued a circular mandating Covid testing on arrival at hospital for patients with symptoms.

Find more information about Italy’s current Covid-19 situation and vaccination campaign on the Italian health ministry’s website (available in English).

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