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Tutto bene: Italy seeks to reassure markets over budget

Italy’s new anti-establishment government sought to reassure financial markets about its upcoming budget on Sunday amid increasing concern Rome could breach EU spending limits as it comes under pressure to fulfil its anti-austerity electoral promises.

Tutto bene: Italy seeks to reassure markets over budget
Italian finance minister Giovanni Tria. Photo: AFP

With Italy’s debt currently standing at a whopping 132 percent of output, financial markets appear to be increasingly nervous about the ability of the new populist government to get its finances under control. 

On Friday, the so-called “yield spread” — which measures the difference in perceived risk between Italian and ultra-safe German government bonds — was wider than it has been in the past 12 months.

But in an interview with La Repubblica newspaper on Sunday, Italian finance minister Giovanni Tria insisted that the spread would narrow once Rome unveiled its budget plans.

“Italy isn’t fragile. It isn’t the sick man of Europe,” Tria said.

“The government has already said several times that budget stability will be respected. And with the new budget law in the coming weeks, these intentions will be translated into action,” the minister said, in comments made during a visit to China.

“As a result, the spread will narrow.”

Nevertheless, international rating agencies appear sceptical.

On Friday, Fitch lowered its outlook on Italy’s sovereign debt rating from “stable” to “negative”, meaning that it could be downgraded in the future.

“Following the formation of the country’s new coalition government, (Fitch) expects a degree of fiscal loosening that would leave Italy’s very high level of public debt more exposed to potential shocks,” the rating agency said in a report.

“The risk of a reversal of structural reforms negatively impacting Italy’s credit fundamentals has increased somewhat, in our view,” Fitch said.

“Fiscal and other policy risks are compounded by the relatively high degree of political uncertainty.”

On Friday, EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici, also urged Rome to make a “significant effort” on its 2019 budget, warning he expected talks with the government to be difficult.

COVID-19

Court turns down AfD-led challenge to Germany’s spending in pandemic

The German Constitutional Court rejected challenges Tuesday to Berlin's participation in the European Union's coronavirus recovery fund, but expressed some reservations about the massive package.

Court turns down AfD-led challenge to Germany's spending in pandemic

Germany last year ratified the €750-billion ($790-billion) fund, which offers loans and grants to EU countries hit hardest by the pandemic.

The court in Karlsruhe ruled on two challenges, one submitted by a former founder of the far-right AfD party, and the other by a businessman.

They argued the fund could ultimately lead to Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, having to take on the debts of other EU member states on a permanent basis.

But the Constitutional Court judges ruled the EU measure does not violate Germany’s Basic Law, which forbids the government from sharing other countries’ debts.

READ ALSO: Germany plans return to debt-limit rules in 2023

The judgement noted the government had stressed that the plan was “intended to be a one-time instrument in reaction to an unprecedented crisis”.

It also noted that the German parliament retains “sufficient influence in the decision-making process as to how the funds provided will be used”.

The judges, who ruled six to one against the challenges, did however express some reservations.

They questioned whether paying out such a large amount over the planned period – until 2026 – could really be considered “an exceptional measure” to fight the pandemic.

At least 37 percent of the funds are aimed at achieving climate targets, the judges said, noting it was hard to see a link between combating global warming and the pandemic.

READ ALSO: Germany to fast-track disputed €200 billion energy fund

They also warned against any permanent mechanism that could lead to EU members taking on joint liability over the long term.

Berenberg Bank economist Holger Schmieding said the ruling had “raised serious doubts whether the joint issuance to finance the fund is in line with” EU treaties.

“The German court — once again — emphasised German limits for EU fiscal integration,” he said.

The court had already thrown out a legal challenge, in April 2021, that had initially stopped Berlin from ratifying the financial package.

Along with French President Emmanuel Macron, then chancellor Angela Merkel sketched out the fund in 2020, which eventually was agreed by the EU’s 27 members in December.

The first funds were disbursed in summer 2021, with the most given to Italy and Spain, both hit hard by the pandemic.

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