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Spain improves outlook for joblessness and debt

The Spanish government on Friday lowered its 2015 forecasts for unemployment and public debt, bolstering its claims of a surging economic recovery months ahead of a general election.

Spain improves outlook for joblessness and debt
Young men pose pose during their work day in Andalusian town of Villamartin. Photo: Cristina Quicler / AFP

The economy ministry said the Spanish economy would create more than 600,000 jobs this year and start to chip away from next year at its debt mountain.

It said the overall jobless rate in 2015 would be 21.1 percent – one percentage point lower than its previous forecast, but still painfully high for ordinary Spaniards.

It confirmed its new growth forecast for this year, which it has revised sharply upwards from 2.9 to 3.3 percent.

That is more than twice the 1.5 percent average rate forecast by Brussels for the eurozone – a striking recovery after on-and-off recession in Spain between 2008 to 2013 that left millions of people out of work.

“For the first time since the start of the crisis in 2008, the Spanish economy is starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel,” Economy Minister Luis de Guindos told a news conference.

The conservative government imposed tough spending cuts and tax rises from 2012 that it said were necessary to stabilise public finances.

The governing Popular Party is now touting the recovery ahead of an election due from November, in which it faces a tough challenge from new anti-austerity parties.

Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro on Friday lowered the official forecast for Spain's public debt to 98.9 percent of gross domestic product from a previous outlook of 100.3 percent.

He said 2016 was likely to be “the first year in which we start, albeit modestly, to lower the burden of debt on GDP,” which he said will decline to 98.5 percent.

The average debt level across the countries of the eurozone was 92.1 percent at the end of 2014, according to official data.

The Spanish government's forecast for the public deficit – a key indicator of financial stability that measures how much spending exceeds income – stands at 4.2 percent of GDP for this year.

The government forecasts it will fall below the three percent level set by European treaties in 2016.

The last official unemployment rate, for the first quarter of this year, was 23.78 percent. But the government forecast on Friday that this would dip just below the symbolic 20 percent level in 2016.

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COVID-19

Court turns down AfD-led challenge to Germany’s spending in pandemic

The German Constitutional Court rejected challenges Tuesday to Berlin's participation in the European Union's coronavirus recovery fund, but expressed some reservations about the massive package.

Court turns down AfD-led challenge to Germany's spending in pandemic

Germany last year ratified the €750-billion ($790-billion) fund, which offers loans and grants to EU countries hit hardest by the pandemic.

The court in Karlsruhe ruled on two challenges, one submitted by a former founder of the far-right AfD party, and the other by a businessman.

They argued the fund could ultimately lead to Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, having to take on the debts of other EU member states on a permanent basis.

But the Constitutional Court judges ruled the EU measure does not violate Germany’s Basic Law, which forbids the government from sharing other countries’ debts.

READ ALSO: Germany plans return to debt-limit rules in 2023

The judgement noted the government had stressed that the plan was “intended to be a one-time instrument in reaction to an unprecedented crisis”.

It also noted that the German parliament retains “sufficient influence in the decision-making process as to how the funds provided will be used”.

The judges, who ruled six to one against the challenges, did however express some reservations.

They questioned whether paying out such a large amount over the planned period – until 2026 – could really be considered “an exceptional measure” to fight the pandemic.

At least 37 percent of the funds are aimed at achieving climate targets, the judges said, noting it was hard to see a link between combating global warming and the pandemic.

READ ALSO: Germany to fast-track disputed €200 billion energy fund

They also warned against any permanent mechanism that could lead to EU members taking on joint liability over the long term.

Berenberg Bank economist Holger Schmieding said the ruling had “raised serious doubts whether the joint issuance to finance the fund is in line with” EU treaties.

“The German court — once again — emphasised German limits for EU fiscal integration,” he said.

The court had already thrown out a legal challenge, in April 2021, that had initially stopped Berlin from ratifying the financial package.

Along with French President Emmanuel Macron, then chancellor Angela Merkel sketched out the fund in 2020, which eventually was agreed by the EU’s 27 members in December.

The first funds were disbursed in summer 2021, with the most given to Italy and Spain, both hit hard by the pandemic.

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