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French PM warns of ‘tipping point’ in Ukraine

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal told parliament that Ukraine's fight against the Russian invasion had reached a "tipping point", and warned of "real, tangible dangers" for France should Russia defeat Kyiv's forces.

Published: 13 March 2024 08:44 CET

French PM warns of 'tipping point' in Ukraine

France's Prime Minister Gabriel Attal. (Photo by Thomas SAMSON / AFP)

Attal issued a stark view of the risks of failing to support Ukraine ahead of a symbolic vote in parliament on President Emmanuel Macron’s Ukraine strategy, as domestic tensions rage in the run-up to June’s European Parliament elections.

Macron’s camp has been seeking to hammer home the importance of greater support for Ukraine, which is running out of ammunition, insisting that Europe’s security is at stake.

Following a debate, the National Assembly lower house approved the government’s Ukraine strategy, including a bilateral security agreement signed by Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last month.

“Ukraine is watching us, waiting for the confirmation and signal of our unity behind them,” Attal told the chamber.

He added that “we are at a tipping point” in the conflict and that a Russian victory had “real, tangible dangers” for “everyday life for the French people”.

With the symbolic parliament vote, Macron forced political parties to take a public stance on the conflict as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine stretches into its third year.

The far-right Rassemblement National (RN), which leads Macron’s alliance by a wide margin ahead of the European elections, abstained. Meanwhile, the far-left La France insoumise (LFI) voted against.

Targeting the RN, Attal said ahead of the vote that “to abstain is to flee before your responsibility to history and to betray what is dearest to us”.

He signed off his opening speech with the Ukrainian battle cry of “Slava Ukraini”.

The upper house, the Senate, was set to hold similar debates on Wednesday.

LFI said it would vote “against war” and the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO and the European Union in the future.

Speaking for the RN, party figurehead Marine Le Pen attacked Macron’s “warlike announcements”, in reference to his not ruling out the sending of Western troops to Ukraine.

She also condemned European sanctions on Russian exports, “some (of which) have considerably weakened our economies”, and rejected the possibility of
Ukraine becoming a member of NATO and the EU.

The vote was designed so that “either we’re in favour of Macron, or we’re accused of being pro-Putin,” Le Pen charged, accusing the government of “hijacking, exploiting and instrumentalising a major international crisis for a short-term electoral agenda”.

Allies of Macron at the weekend lambasted the RN at the launch of their European election campaign, accusing the far-right party of flirting with the Kremlin and betraying the interests of France and Europe.

Macron is also set to speak about the war in a prime-time TV broadcast on Thursday.

But public support for France’s continued aid for Ukraine is waning, according to some pollsters.

An Elabe poll released on Sunday showed that 39 percent of French people support France’s continued economic and financial aid for Ukraine, 11 percentage points down from June 2023.

Just 14 percent of French people believe France should ramp up military aid for Ukraine according to the study.

Macron emphasising that his ruling party is prepared for war with Russia is a “risky bet” ahead of the elections, the Eurointelligence think tank said.

It added that Macron’s “narrow focus” on the RN made his party an “easy target” for others.

Macron’s hardened stance represents a turnaround for a leader who had for years sought to position himself as a top mediator between Russia and Ukraine.

Speaking to French broadcaster BFM TV on Monday, Ukrainian leader Zelensky said there was no need for French ground troops in his war-torn country as
long as “Ukraine holds”.

“Your children are not going to die in Ukraine,” he said.

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Azerbaijan vehemently rejects the accusation it bears responsibility for the riots that have led to the deaths of five people and rattled the Paris government.

But it is just the latest in a litany of tensions between Paris and Baku and not the first time France has accused Azerbaijan of being behind an alleged disinformation campaign.

The riots in New Caledonia, a French territory lying between Australia and Fiji, were sparked by moves to agree a new voting law that supporters of independence from France say discriminates against the indigenous Kanak population.

Paris points to the sudden emergence of Azerbaijani flags alongside Kanak symbols in the protests, while a group linked to the Baku authorities is openly backing separatists while condemning Paris.

“This isn’t a fantasy. It’s a reality,” interior minister Gérald Darmanin told television channel France 2 when asked if Azerbaijan, China and Russia were interfering in New Caledonia.

“I regret that some of the Caledonian pro-independence leaders have made a deal with Azerbaijan. It’s indisputable,” he alleged.

But he added: “Even if there are attempts at interference… France is sovereign on its own territory, and so much the better”.

“We completely reject the baseless accusations,” Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry spokesman Ayhan Hajizadeh said.

“We refute any connection between the leaders of the struggle for freedom in Caledonia and Azerbaijan.”

In images widely shared on social media, a reportage broadcast Wednesday on the French channel TF1 showed some pro-independence supporters wearing T-shirts adorned with the Azerbaijani flag.

Tensions between Paris and Baku have grown in the wake of the 2020 war and 2023 lightning offensive that Azerbaijan waged to regain control of its breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region from ethnic Armenian separatists.

France is a traditional ally of Christian Armenia, Azerbaijan’s neighbour and historic rival, and is also home to a large Armenian diaspora.

Darmanin said Azerbaijan – led since 2003 by President Ilham Aliyev, who succeeded his father Heydar – was a “dictatorship”.

On Wednesday, the Paris government also banned social network TikTok from operating in New Caledonia.

Tiktok, whose parent company is Chinese, has been widely used by protesters. Critics fear it is being employed to spread disinformation coming from foreign countries.

Azerbaijan invited separatists from the French territories of Martinique, French Guiana, New Caledonia and French Polynesia to Baku for a conference in July 2023.

The meeting saw the creation of the “Baku Initiative Group”, whose stated aim is to support “French liberation and anti-colonialist movements”.

The group published a statement this week condemning the French parliament’s proposed change to New Caledonia’s constitution, which would allow outsiders who moved to the territory at least 10 years ago the right to vote in its elections.

Pro-independence forces say that would dilute the vote of Kanaks, who make up about 40 percent of the population.

“We stand in solidarity with our Kanak friends and support their fair struggle,” the Baku Initiative Group said.

Raphael Glucksmann, the lawmaker heading the list for the French Socialists in June’s European Parliament elections, told Public Senat television that Azerbaijan had made “attempts to interfere… for months”.

He said the underlying problem behind the unrest was a domestic dispute over election reform, not agitation fomented by “foreign actors”.

But he accused Azerbaijan of “seizing on internal problems.”

A French government source, who asked not to be named, said pro-Azerbaijani social media accounts had on Wednesday posted an edited montage purporting to show two white police officers with rifles aimed at dead Kanaks.

“It’s a pretty massive campaign, with around 4,000 posts generated by (these) accounts,” the source told AFP.

“They are reusing techniques already used during a previous smear campaign called Olympia.”

In November, France had already accused actors linked to Azerbaijan of carrying out a disinformation campaign aimed at damaging its reputation over its ability to host the Olympic Games in Paris. Baku also rejected these accusations.