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NATO

Hungary set to approve Sweden’s Nato application after almost two years

Hungary is expected to ratify Sweden's Nato application on Monday afternoon, the final obstacle for an enlargement of the alliance spurred by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Hungary set to approve Sweden's Nato application after almost two years
Sweden's Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, left, listens to his Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orban during a press conference on Friday. Photo: AP Photo/Denes Erdos

The vote would end a long delay that left fellow Nato partners furious as Ukraine has battled Russian troops.

Russia’s February 2022 invasion prompted Sweden to apply to join the bloc in May 2022, alongside neighbouring Finland, ending a long-standing stance of non-alignment.

Finland became the 31st member of the US-led defence alliance in April 2023.

But while Hungary repeatedly said it supported Swedish membership in principle, it kept prolonging the process by asking Sweden to stop “vilifying” the Hungarian government.

Budapest also accused Swedish officials of being “keen to bash Hungary” on rule-of-law issues.

After a meeting on Friday between Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his Swedish counterpart Ulf Kristersson in Budapest, the nationalist leader announced progress.

“We have managed to clarify our mutual good intentions,” Orban told journalists after signing a deal to acquire four Swedish-made fighter jets, expanding its existing fleet of 14 Jas-39 Gripen fighters.

Orban’s nationalist Fidesz party – whose ruling coalition with the Christian Democratic KDNP holds a two-thirds majority in parliament — had already indicated it would support Sweden’s bid.

All opposition parties except the far-right Our Homeland movement are in favour of ratification.

Lawmakers were widely expected to greenlight the Nordic nation’s bid in the parliamentary vote at around 4.20pm on Monday.

Once parliament has approved the bid, the president is expected to sign it in the coming days.

Sweden will then be invited to accede to the Washington Treaty and officially become a Nato member.

In the case of Finland, for example, Ankara gave the green light on March 30th, 2023, and Finland became a Nato member on April 4th.

Maintaining domestic popularity

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, most Nato members were keen to quickly approve the membership bids of both Finland and Sweden.

Hungary and the other holdout Turkey held up the process, especially for Sweden.

While Ankara cited security concerns, Budapest invoked a range of different reasons for delaying ratification.

For some experts, it was a strategy to wring concessions from Brussels to unlock billions of euros in frozen funds. Others argued it underlined Orban’s closeness to the presidents of Russia and Turkey.

For analyst Mate Szalai of Venice’s Ca’ Foscari University, Orban was simply playing to his domestic audience.

“Orban wanted to go as far as he could without causing serious problems to the Transatlantic community while proving that Hungary is a power to be reckoned with,” he told AFP.

While Hungary’s “confrontational behaviour” did not reap any tangible results, it might have “been beneficial domestically for the ruling Fidesz party”, he added.

“Many initiatives of the Hungarian government are designed to provoke a backlash in Europe,” said Szalai.

“And most criticism expressed towards the Orban government actually helps Fidesz to maintain its popularity in the country.”

Hungary approved Finland’s membership last March, but despite its earlier promises, Budapest ended up being the last to vote on Sweden’s Nato aspirations.

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MILITARY

EXPLAINED: What you need to know about Sweden’s new military spending report

Sweden's parliamentary defence commission on Friday recommended adding 52.8 billion kronor to the national defence budget by 2030, taking defence spending to 2.6 percent of GDP.

EXPLAINED: What you need to know about Sweden's new military spending report

What is the Swedish Defence Commision? 

The Swedish Defence Commission is a cross-party forum which seeks to ensure broad political agreement around Sweden’s defence requirements. It brings together representatives of all eight parties in the Swedish parliament, with two each from the Moderates, Sweden Democrats and Social Democrats and one each for the other parties.

There are also advisers and experts from the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry for Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Finance, the Prime Minister’s Office, the Swedish Armed Forces, the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration and the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency. Members of the committee are supported by a secretariat comprising one principal secretary and five secretaries.

What is the report they have delivered? 

The committee on Friday delivered its final, report, “Strengthened defence capability, Sweden as an Ally“, meeting the deadline given by the country’s defence minister Pål Jonson when he ordered the committee to develop proposals for a new defence bill in December 2022, with a total of four reports, the first three of which were delivered in April 2023, June 2023, December 2023. 

What have they recommended? 

The committee have recommended that Sweden’s budget is increased from 119 billion kronor a year in 2024 to 185 billion kronor in 2030, which would bring total spending to 2.6 percent of Sweden’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). 

The committee said it agreed with the recommendations given by Micael Byden, Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces in November 2023, which were that Sweden should increase or improve: 

  • air defence and in particular its cooperation within NATO’s Integrated Air and Missile Defence (IAMD)
  • its ability to combat air, land and sea drones 
  • its integration with NATO’s command system
  • its logistics, so that it can provide Host Nation Support and serve as a base for other units from other Nato countries. 
  • its capacity to operate with military units outside Sweden’s borders 

But the committee also made additional recommendations beyong those given by the armed forces, calling for: 

  • two new army brigades, so that Sweden would have three mechanised brigades and one infantry brigade by 2030
  • a new Norrland Infantry Regiment,
  • an increase in the number of conscripts trained a year from the current level of 8,000 to 10,000 in 2030 and 12,000 in 2032, and possibly to 14,000 in 2035
  • a boost in Sweden’s air defence capability, particularly to counter drone attacks 
  • stocking up on additional ammunition, including air-to-air and cruise missiles, and spare parts 
  • 20 new companies and platoons dedicated to defending Sweden’s territories 
  • increased refresher courses for conscripts, extra funding of voluntary defence organisations, and expansion of the officer education programme

How will the cost of funding this military expansion be met? 

While they were agreed on what needed to be done, party representatives on the committee did not agree on how much needed to be spent or how ti should be financed. 

The Centre Party representative said that spending should be higher, comprising 3 percent of GDP. 

The representatives from the Social Democrats, Left Party, and Green Party, added a statement to the report when they called for a section on how the extra spending should be financed.  

Peter Hultqvist, who served as defence minister under the former Social Democrat government, called for a new beredskapsskatt, or “Readiness Tax” to fund the increase, saying it was disappointing that the committee had not been able to agree on financing. 

“This demand is so big that it risks pushing other pressing requirements out of government spending plans,” he said. “There is a risk that healthcare, education and elderly care will be hit.” 

But Ulf Kristersson, Sweden’s prime minister, rejected the idea of a new tax. 

“It’s no secret that the parties on the left always see reasons to raise taxes, and that’s the case this time as well, I assume. But that is not our way forward,” he said. “We must be able to prioritise Swedish defense, and I understand that there is now complete agreement that it is an important political task.” 

Anna Starbrink, a defence spokesperson for the Liberals, the smallest party in the government, said that the Swedish Defence Commission had not in the past been tasked with developing funding proposals. 

“This is a new idea from the opposition and from the Social Democrats’ side is about nothing more than forcing through a new tax hike through the defence commission, and that’s something the rest of us don’t want to go along with,” she said. 

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