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2024 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS

‘Wake-up call’: Far-right parties set to make huge gains in 2024 EU elections

The European parliamentary elections in June could see a radical shake-up of the current political landscape, with a coalition of far-right and right-wing parties dominating for the first time, a new report suggests.

Hungary president Victor Orban
Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban speaks at the Royal Castle in Warsaw. Hungary could play a crucial role in creating a coalition of conservatives and right-wing populists in the EU parliament after June 9th. Photo: Wojtek Radwanski / AFP)

The next round of European parliamentary elections could bring about a drastic surge to the right, endangering key policies like tackling climate change and providing support to war-torn Ukraine, according to a new report. 

Mirroring a trend in recent national elections, support for mainstream centrist parties is expected plummet in the June elections, while a coalition of conservative and far-right parties could emerge for the first time. 

The report was conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

It’s authors, political scientists Simon Hix and Kevin Cunningham, described the polling results as a “wake-up call” for European policy makers.

“The June elections should be about securing and strengthening the EU’s position for all those who want a more global Europe. Their election programmes should give the population cause for optimism,” said Hix, a comparative politics specialist at the European University Institute in Florence. 

The report predicts that anti-European populists are likely to lead in nine member states, including Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia, after voters go to the polls this year.

In Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden, far-right and right-wing populist parties are expected to land in second place.

READ ALSO: Elections to borders – 7 big events in the EU that could impact you this year

Overall, the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group is projected to gain up to 40 seats, making it the third-largest political force in the upcoming legislature with a total of 98 seats.

Meanwhile, the centre-left coalition of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), Greens (G/EFA) and Left is expected to lose seats after June, sinking from 36 to 33 percent of seats in the European parliament. 

The primary centre-right coalition, consisting of the European People’s Party (EPP), Renew Europe (RE), and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), could also lose out, dropping its vote share from 49 to 48 percent.

If Hungary’s Fidesz party, led by the authoritarian leader Victor Orban, decides to join the EVP, a “right-wing populist coalition” could emerge, with Eurosceptic and right-wing populist parties gaining more leverage than ever before. 

According to the report’s authors, a potential return of Donald Trump in the United States and the growing influence of Eurosceptic, right-wing populist parties could hinder “international partnerships in defence of European interests and values”.

This could mean a drastic shift away from the current measures to reduce carbon emissions and protect the environment, as well as a rightwards shift on issues such as migration and support for Ukraine. 

READ ALSO: EU countries settle on rules for how non-EU citizens could move around Europe

It could also affect politics on a national level, the report said, amplifying the voices of countries like Hungary, Italy, Slovakia and Sweden who want to limit the influence of the European Union from within. 

If Geert Wilders’ Eurosceptic PVV heads the new government in the Netherlands, this axis of anti-Europe parties could grow even larger, the report suggests. 

Reiterating his warning to EU policy makers the report’s author Simon Hix said: “They should emphasise the benefits of multilateralism and make it clear on key issues of democracy and the rule of law that they, not the political fringe, are best placed to protect fundamental European rights.”

Member comments

  1. Disappointing from local.de, turning itself into another mainstream narrative machine. It’s not far-right parties rising, it’s opposite of all stupid / not-listening to people/common man/farmer policies which are getting traction and all those parties that cater to non main stream narrative will and continue to get the big push. Remember what Anna Baerbock said last year – she doesn’t care about her citizens or finance minister no budget for farmers but billions for war.

  2. Finally, they are waking up are they?

    I wish they would wake up in the UK as we are heading to become a Muslim country.

  3. Thanks for the article. As an American, I am well aware of the consequences of a MEGA movement in EU. This is a very dangerous trend and will impact not only people yet economics. Let’s hope that cooler heads prevail. I for one along with millions of Americans are working to ensure MAGA does not enter the WH.

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POLITICS

‘Dexit’ would cost Germany 690 billion euros and millions of jobs: economists

According to the German Economic Institute (IW), Germany's exit from the EU – the so-called Dexit – would cost millions of jobs and significantly reduce the country's prosperity.

'Dexit' would cost Germany 690 billion euros and millions of jobs: economists

In a study presented by the Cologne-based institute on Sunday, the authors showed that a Dexit would cause real GDP to drop by 5.6 percent after just five years. This means that Germany would lose 690 billion euros in value creation during this time.

In addition, Germany as an export nation is dependent on trade with other countries, especially with other EU countries, warned the authors. Companies and consumers in Germany would therefore feel the consequences “clearly” and around 2.5 million jobs would be lost.

The study is based on the consequences of Britain’s exit from the EU, such as the loss of trade agreements and European workers.

Taken together, the losses in economic output in Germany in the event of a Dexit would be similar to those seen during Covid-19 and the energy cost crisis in the period from 2020 to 2023, the authors warned.

Brexit is therefore “not an undertaking worth imitating,” warned IW managing director Hubertus Bardt. Rather, Brexit is a “warning for other member states not to carelessly abandon economic integration.”

Leader of the far-right AfD party Alice Weidel described Great Britain’s exit from the European Union at the beginning of the year as a “model for Germany.”

In an interview published in the Financial Times, Weidel outlined her party’s approach in the event her party came to power: First, the AfD would try to resolve its “democratic deficit” by reforming the EU. If this was not successful, a referendum would be called on whether Germany should remain in the EU.

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