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Social Democrats at 10-year low: poll

Sweden's Social Democrats are haemorrhaging support and are less popular than at any time in the past 10 years, according to a new poll from Synovate. Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt's Moderate Party has a stable lead over its main rival, the poll shows.

Published: 24 June 2010 09:25 CEST

Social Democrats at 10-year low: poll

With less than three months to the general election, polls are now being published almost daily. The Red-Green opposition, which has held a commanding lead over the government for most of the past four years, is now trailing the centre-right coalition, according to the poll commissioned by newspapers Sydsvenskan and Dagens Nyheter.

The four governing parties had the support of 49.1 percent of voters, while the opposition has 44.5 percent support.

Support for Mona Sahlin’s Social Democrats has fallen by almost 2.5 percentage points since May and by 5 percent since April. The party’s 30.0 percent rating is its lowest in ten years.

The Moderate Party are at 33.1 percent, an increase of 1.3 points since May. The centre-right lead of 4.6 points is within the margin of error, but the opposition had a lead of 8.1 points as recently as April.

The poll confirms a number of other recent surveys, which also showed a small centre-right lead over the opposition.

The Social Democrats are losing support primarily among voters under 44 and particularly among those under 30.

Synovate interviewed 2,973 people over the age of 18 between 7th and 22nd June. They were asked: ‘If there was a parliamentary election today, which party would you vote for?’

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According to the latest polling by Verian for Swedish public broadcaster SVT, one party – the Liberals – is already polling below the formal four percent threshold to enter the European Parliament, but two more, the Christian Democrats and the Centre Party, are worryingly close, with each polling at both 4.5 percent.

If the poll is right, the Social Democrats are set to be the big winners in the election, gaining two additional seats, while the Left Party and the far-right Sweden Democrats are both in line to gain one additional seat.

But as well as the Liberal Party, the Centre Party, Christian Democrats, and Green Party all set to lose one seat each, but as they each currently have more than one seat, they will nonetheless keep their representation in parliament.

Tommy Möller, a professor of politics at Stockholm University, told the TT newswire that the two parties likely to be the most worried ahead of election day on June 9th are the Liberals and the Centre Party.

For the Liberals, it matters partly because it has long seen itself as Sweden's most pro-EU party. At its highpoint 15 years ago, it had three seats in the EU parliament, but it sank to just one in the 2020 European elections.

If the party were now to lose the last of its seats, the leadership of party chairman Johan Persson, Möller argued, would be put into question.

"This could prompt an internal debate on party leadership," he told the TT newswire. "There's no doubt that if the Liberals, who (...) promote themselves as the most pro-EU party, lost its mandate, it would be a massive blow."

He said he would also not rule out a leadership challenge against the Centre Party's leader Muharrem Demirok should his party lose both its seats in the EU parliament, given how badly he has struggled as leader to gain any visibility with voters .

"Obviously the Centre Party is fighting an uphill battle in the opinion polls. If it loses its seat, that would obviously add to the lack of confidence in the party leader, which could prompt an internal leadership debate," Möller said.

For the Christian Democrats, the Verian poll is in some ways encouraging. Thus far the indications are that Folklistan, the party formed by the former Christian Democrat MEP Sara Skyttedal, is far below the 4 percent threshold, with only an estimated 1.5 percent of the vote.

While it is no doubt nibbling away at Christian Democrat support, it has so far not managed to drag the party down to the 4 percent threshold.

Möller said he did not expect anyone to call for party leader Ebba Busch to stand down, almost regardless of the result.

"I don't think there will be calls for her resignation, but obviously, the mandate you have as a leader is always linked to how well its going for the party in opinion polls and elections," he said.

Return of the Greens?

Even though they are projected to lose one of their seats, if the Green Party succeeds in winning 9.5 percent of the vote on June 9th, as the polls suggest, it will still be seen as decent result, showing that the party, which has been struggling in domestic politics, at least does well in the EU elections.

If the party retains its third seat, it will be seen as a resounding victory.

According to a popularity poll by the Aftonbladet newspaper, the party's lead MEP, Alice Bah Kuhnke, is both the second most popular politician standing in the election and the most unpopular, reflecting just how polarising party has become in Sweden.

In the poll, 30 percent of respondents said they had high or very high confidence in Bah Kuhnke, second only to the Left Party's candidate and former leader, Jonas Sjöstedt, on 42 percent. But at the same time, 64 percent of respondents said they had "low confidence" in her.

According to Johan Martinsson, the head of opinion research at Demoskop, who carried out the poll, this should not worry the Greens too much.

"As long as the relevant group of voters have a large amount of confidence, it doesn't really make any difference if you are despised by those who oppose you. It can almost be a good thing as it makes it easier to get attention."

Could the election mark a turnaround for the party, which has voted in two new leaders this year?

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