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MONEY

Sweden officially in recession as GDP shrinks for two consecutive quarters

Sweden's GDP in the third quarter of 2023 decreased by 0.3 percent, according to new statistics, meaning the country is officially in a recession rather than an economic downturn.

Sweden officially in recession as GDP shrinks for two consecutive quarters
Sweden has now had two quarters of negative GDP in a row. Photo: Henrik Montgomery/TT

The decrease in GDP is mainly explained by a decrease in inventories and reduced household consumption, according to Statistics Sweden, which is behind the new figures.

“GDP decreased for the second consecutive quarter,” Jessica Engdahl, head of section at Statistics Sweden’s National Accounts Department, wrote in a statement.

“The downturn was general but counteracted in part by strong exports of services. Household consumption expenditure was negative for the fifth consecutive quarter.”

Calendar adjusted and compared with the third quarter of 2022, GDP decreased by 1.4 percent, according to the stats agency.

GDP, or gross domestic product, is defined as the value of all goods and services produced in the country. It’s used as a measure of economic growth and in Sweden, new figures are published quarterly.

When a country has negative GDP for at least two consecutive quarters, it’s in a recession, rather than just an economic downturn – at least in English. In Swedish, a mild period of low or negative economic growth lasting less than two quarters is also sometimes called a recession.

The third quarter in figures

In the third quarter of 2023, household final consumption fell by 0.6 percent, while general government consumption remained the same.

Local and regional government consumption actually rose, by 0.3 percent, while central government consumption went down by 0.7 percent.

Changes in inventories – mainly decreased industrial inventories – contributed negatively to GDP in the third quarter by 1.4 percentage points.

Looking at property, investments in homes continued to decrease while investments in other buildings also had a negative impact on GDP.

Exports increased by 1.4 percent and imports decreased by 1.5 percent – although net exports contributed positively to GDP by 1.5 percentage points.

The total number of people in employment also increased, although admittedly only by 0.1 percent. 

The number of hours worked by employees in Sweden dropped by 0.5 percent across the economy as a whole, while business productivity also fell by 0.1 percent.

Disposable income of households dropped by 0.6 percent when compared with the third quarter a year before in 2022.

The public administration deficit is also striking when compared to the same period a year ago. In 2023, it had a deficit of 5.9 billion kronor, while in 2022, it had no deficit – rather a surplus of 10.5 billion kronor.

The next GDP figures, covering the fourth quarter of 2023, will be published at the end of January next year.

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ECONOMY

Swedish inflation drops below 4 percent for first time in two years

Sweden's consumer price index fell to 3.9 percent in February, reinforcing predictions that the central bank will keep lowering interest rates this year.

Swedish inflation drops below 4 percent for first time in two years

The yearly inflation rate according to the consumer price index (CPI) was down from 4.1 percent in January, according to number crunchers Statistics Sweden.

Experts had predicted an inflation rate of 4.0 percent, according to Bloomberg.

“The effect of increasing interest rates for household’s mortgages is easing, which can explain the decreasing inflation rate in April,” Statistics Sweden analyst Carl Mårtensson said in a statement.

Inflation measured instead according to the CPIF metric – the consumer price index with interest rate fluctuations taken out of the equation – meanwhile rose slightly from 2.2 to 2.3 percent.

However, that still beats expectations, which had predicted CPIF inflation of 2.4 percent.

YOUR SWEDISH MONEY:

That puts it slightly above the Riksbank’s inflation target of two percent, and experts predicted that Wednesday’s inflation news strengthened the likelihood that the bank will cut interest rates further.

The Riksbank last week slashed Sweden’s so-called policy rate for the first time in eight years.

The policy rate is the central bank’s main monetary policy tool. It decides which rates Swedish banks can deposit in and borrow money from the Riksbank, which in turn affects the banks’ own interest rates on savings, loans and mortgages.

If bank interest rates are high, it’s expensive to borrow money, which means people spend less and as a result inflation drops.

But now that inflation appears to be holding relatively steady around the two percent target, it means that the bank might be able to start lowering the policy rate yet again.

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