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HEATWAVE

Heatwave in Spain: Why are so many people dying?

At least 360 people have lost their lives in Spain as a result of the extremely high temperatures the country is currently experiencing. But is this heatwave more deadly than others?

heatwave deaths spain
A nurse sprays water to cool off an old woman at the geriatric hospital. According to Spanish research, 90 percent of those who die from heat exposure are over the age of 74. (Photo by FRED DUFOUR / AFP)

Extreme heat has almost been a constant in Spain since before the summer season even began this year. 

The mercury had already hit 40 C in large swathes of the interior in May, and the country recorded its second ever earliest ola de calor (heatwave) before mid June. 

There have been plenty of very hot weather spells in between, even though for meteorologists to officially consider scorching weather to be a heatwave, the period of extreme heat must last at least three days and temperatures must exceed seasonal thresholds by 10 percent.

Currently Spain is ending an arduous, destructive and deadly nine-day heatwave that’s affected the entire mainland as well as the Balearic and Canary Islands.

One of the most alarming figures is the 360 people in Spain who have died from heat-related consequences during this latest heatwave, with fatalities from over the weekend still not added to the total.

That death toll seems exceptionally high but heat-related deaths are in fact nothing new to the Iberian Peninsula.

Every year, an average of 1,312 people lose their lives in Spain for reasons attributed to high temperatures, according to research conducted by Madrid’s Carlos III University.

Last year, 1,298 heat-related fatalities were recorded during the whole summer of 2021.

This year, the figure certainly looks set to be higher as from the start of May to July 15th 2022, Spain’s heat-related death toll stood at 1,274. 

There are still two weeks left in July, the whole of August and September, which may take the death rate to its highest on record.

The figure of 360 heat-related deaths in just five days (from July 10th to Friday July 15th, 123 on Friday alone) is alarmingly high, and the fact that this heatwave has been longer and more incessantly hot largely explains why so many lives have been lost in so little time. 

“Global warming is causing more intense extreme temperatures, a greater probability of exceeding a heatwave temperature threshold and higher chances that this threshold will be exceeded for a longer period of time,” wrote physicist David Barriopedro of Spain’s National Research Council (CSIC).

In other words, heatwaves in Spain are more frequent, they last longer and they’re hotter.

READ MORE: What is the ‘heat dome’ phenomenon causing Spain’s scorching heatwave?

Unfortunately, Spain’s national weather agency forecasts that temperatures will rise again by this week after some brief respite brought on by stormy weather.

According to Spain’s Daily Death Monitoring report on heat (Monitorización de la Mortalidad Diaria, MoMo for short), 54 percent of yearly fatalities attributed to excessive temperatures happen during the month of August.

The data suggests that 90 percent of those who die from heat exposure in Spain are over the age of 74, but children, infants and those with chronic diseases are also vulnerable. 

Why do people die when exposed to extreme heat?

The human body functions best at 37 C, so when it overheats and becomes dehydrated, this causes the blood to thicken, forcing the heart to pump harder and putting extra pressure on other organs. 

If thermal stress and heat gain becomes too high, the body’s mechanisms such as sweating no longer work and there is no other way to dispose of this additional heat.

This then causes heat exhaustion – which includes symptoms such as dizziness, muscle cramps and nausea – or worse still heat stroke, where delirium and loss of consciousness can be brought on.

READ ALSO: Eleven tips for staying cool during a heatwave in Spain

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WEATHER

Will this summer in Spain be as hot as the previous two?

2023 was the world’s hottest summer on record, with many countries including Spain experiencing scorching temperatures. What are meteorologists forecasting for summer 2024?

Will this summer in Spain be as hot as the previous two?

2023 was in fact the second-hottest summer Spain had ever experienced – the hottest being just one year earlier in 2022.

During that year, 11,300 people died in Spain alone due to the abnormally high temperatures, marine life perished in the warming seas and even train tracks warped and became deformed.

All eyes are looking toward this summer to see what will happen and if it will be as roasting as the previous two. 

READ ALSO:

According to the climate service Copernicus-EU, above-normal temperatures are predicted across southern Europe this summer.

And in Spain, there is a 50-70 percent chance that this summer will be one of the hottest 20 percent on record, and it will properly begin in June.

According to Spain’s State Meteorological Agency AEMET, we have already seen an abnormal rise this May.

Its quarterly prediction, which will take us up to the end of July (typically the hottest part of the summer here in Spain), states that it will almost certainly be warmer than usual on the Mediterranean side of the country, as well as the Balearic and Canary Islands.

Copernicus agrees with these predictions and has indicated that it’s very likely to be hotter than normal in certain areas of the country. It particularly singled out the Valencia region, Murcia (except the south), northern Almería and Granada, Ibiza and Formentera and the western Canary Islands.

It’s getting more and more difficult to know exactly what ‘above normal’ temperatures are, considering what Spain has experienced the last few years, but the reference period that many experts are basing their predictions on is from 1991-2020.

When it comes to rainfall, Copernicus has forecast that the “most likely scenario is a summer with less rain” than usual.

AEMET agreed with the prediction, stating on its X account that “most likely rainfall will be less throughout the country than what is already normally scarce in the summer season”.

This is bad news for many parts of Spain, such as Catalonia, Andalusia and the Canary Islands, which have already been experiencing an ongoing drought over the past two years.

Luckily, spring rains have managed to fill reservoirs just enough to see us through the summer at this point, but more rain will definitely be needed come autumn.

READ ALSO: Will drought restrictions affect summer holidays in Spain?

While scientists agree the sizzling temperatures experienced over the past few summers are down to climate change, last year in 2023, the cyclical phenomenon known as El Niño also had a part to play in global weather patterns.

When the seas become cooler on average and it has a cooling effect on the planet, this is partly down to the effect of La Niña.

This year is supposed to be dominated by La Niña and according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the US, La Niña has a 49 percent chance of developing between June and August and a 69 percent chance between July and September.

But this doesn’t necessarily mean that this summer will be cooler than last year.

As of May 16th 2024, we’re undergoing a neutral period known as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Despite the global cooling effect of La Niña in 2022, it was still the planet’s sixth hottest year and the hottest in Spain ever recorded.

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