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ECONOMY

French economy predicted to keep growing, even if new restrictions imposed

France's central bank said on Sunday that the EU's second-largest economy remained resilient even faced with the Omicron variant of Covid-19, predicting steady growth over the coming years even if new restrictions are imposed.

Banque de France
Banque de France is optimistic for the future. Photo: Franck Fife/AFP

The coronavirus crisis “has not left scars in terms of production levels and potential production,” Bank of France director-general Olivier Garnier told reporters in Paris.

Central bank economists expect French output to add 3.6 percent next year, slightly down from previous predictions, and 2.2 percent in 2023, a slight increase.

Next year’s expansion would be fuelled by resurgent domestic demand, as houses spend down pandemic savings and companies invest.

By 2024, France should return “close to the rhythm” its economy enjoyed before the pandemic, at around 1.4 percent annual growth, the Bank of France said – albeit with lower unemployment and higher wages.

If new restrictions were imposed to curb the spread of the Omicron variant, the central bank predicted slower growth for 2022 but a catch-up effect the following year.

As major central banks worldwide face the puzzle of whether to raise interest rates in a bid to control surging prices, the Bank of France said it expects inflation to remain elevated next year before falling back over 2023.

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ECONOMY

French economy beats growth forecast in first quarter

The French economy grew more than expected in the first quarter, official data showed on Tuesday, delivering good news to a government facing scrutiny over the country's huge debt pile.

French economy beats growth forecast in first quarter

The eurozone’s second biggest economy expanded by 0.2 percent between January and March compared to the previous quarter, according to the INSEE statistics institute, which had previously forecast zero growth.

“To all those who want us to believe that our economy is at a standstill: facts are stubborn. French growth is progressing,” said Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire.

“This is a new sign showing the solidity of our economy,” he said, adding that the “government’s strategy is paying off.”

France’s budget deficit has overshot government estimates, undermining President Emmanuel Macron’s pledge to bring national finances back on track within the next four years.

Ratings agencies have cast doubt on the government’s debt reduction target.

The public deficit widened to 5.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2023. The government aims to reduce it to three percent by 2027.

READ MORE: How France’s bid to tackle ‘wild’ budget deficit could impact you

French debt has grown to 110.6 percent of GDP — the third biggest ratio in the European Union after Greece and Italy.

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