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ELECTION

ANALYSIS: Where did it all go wrong for Spain’s radical left party Podemos?

Far-left party Podemos, which just four years ago took over major city halls across Spain, suffered a humiliating defeat in Sunday's local, regional and European elections, a victim of internal disputes.

ANALYSIS: Where did it all go wrong for Spain's radical left party Podemos?
Pablo Iglesias has faced calls to resign after the hammering on Sunday. Photo: AFP

The party lost almost all of the mayorships it won in 2015 along with other far-left groups, and captured just 10 percent of the vote in the European elections, compared with 14.3 percent during an April 28th general election.    

At the same time the triple polls strengthened acting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's Socialists, which placed first in the European elections and won the most votes in 10 of the 12 regions that voted on Sunday.

The results undermined Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias's wish to form a coalition government with the Socialists, which won last month's general election while failing to reach a majority in parliament.

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“He is too weakened to demand Pedro Sanchez give him ministries,” Carmen Lumbierres, a political science professor at Spain's Open University UNED, told AFP.

Speaking Monday, Iglesias said “it is obvious that these results are not good”, though he still hoped to join a coalition.   

“We most be conscious of what we weigh and try to form a government,” he said.

Podemos has just 42 seats in Spain's 350-seat parliament, down from 71 before the April vote.

In the last municipal elections, Podemos – or parties under its umbrella – swept to power in the cities of Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Zaragoza, La Coruña and Cádiz.

But this time round the only mayorship left it the hands of a radical left party linked with Podemos is in Cadiz, José María González,  affectionately dubbed Kichi, will have a second term as mayor.

In the regional vote, Podemos made huge losses, dropping a total of 70 seats across all the regions that voted.

In the regional parliament of Madrid, Podemos lost a whopping 20 seats, winning just seven seats this time round compared to the 27 in 2015 – the blame for the losses can be firmly placed at the door of Iglesias's former deputy turned rival, Íñigo Errejón who stood as a candidate with the Mas Madrid party. 

European trend

Podemos's collapse mirrors a European trend of declining support for far-left parties.

The European United Left/Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL), which goups leftist parties in the European parliment, won just 39 seats in this year's European elections, down from 52 previously.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras plans to call for early polls after his far-left Syriza party — a Podemos ally — was trounced in European and local elections on Sunday. 

In Madrid, incumbent mayor Manuela Carmena who was elected in 2015 on a citizen platform backed by Podemos, won the most votes on Sunday but still lacks a majority.

She will most likely be replaced by the conservative PP candidate, Jose Luis Martinez-Almeida if he is backed by the centre-right Ciudadanos and far-right party Vox parties.

In Barcelona, incumbent Mayor Ada Colau, a former housing activist backed by Podemos, lost to a Catalan separatist Ernest Maragall.   

Podemos-backed mayors also lost in Zaragoza, La Coruna and Santiago de Compostela.

Many were victims of divisions over strategy that have plagued the party for the past two years.   

In Madrid and Zaragoza, Podemos members presented competing lists.   

“Podemos was a victim of an overdose of Game of Thrones,” wrote Enric Juliana, deputy director of Barcelona-based daily La Vanguardia, in an analysis of the party's results.

Many Podemos voters have become disenchanted with the party because it has not remained faithful to the new style of participatory politics that it initially promised to implement, said Lumbierres.

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POLITICS

What will Spain’s PM do next after resignation threat?

Sánchez's shock threat of resignation after a dubious corruption probe into his wife has kicked off a period of political uncertainty. What card will the Spanish PM play next according to the experts, or is he truly planning to step down?

What will Spain's PM do next after resignation threat?

Pedro Sánchez, in office since 2018, wrote in a four-page letter posted on social media on Wednesday that he would suspend public duties while he “reflects” on whether he wants to continue leading the government.

The Socialist leader denounced “the seriousness of the attacks” against him and his wife, saying it was part of a campaign of “harassment” waged by the right and far right who “do not accept the election results”.

READ ALSO: Who is Begoña Gómez? Spanish PM’s partner thrust into spotlight

Sánchez, an expert in political survival who has made a career out of taking political gambles, said he would announce his decision on Monday.

Some analysts said he could decide to stay on, with this move aimed at rallying support and regaining the initiative in the face of the right-wing opposition at a time of extreme polarisation in Spanish politics.

“Sánchez is a political animal,” said Oriol Bartomeus, a political scientist at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, adding “he has decided to go on the attack” to try to “change the rules of the debate”.

Paloma Román, a political scientist at Madrid’s Complutense University, said Sánchez had “slammed his fist on the table” as part of a “strategy aimed at putting the spotlight where he wants it”.

Sánchez could file a confidence motion in parliament to show that he and his minority government are still supported by a majority of lawmakers in parliament.

Catalan separatist leader Carles Puigdemont, whose JxCat party is an unpredictable ally of the government, has urged Sánchez to pick this option.

READ ALSO: What happens and who takes over if Spain’s Prime Minister resigns?

For the confidence motion to succeed, Sánchez would just need the backing of a simple majority in the assembly and most of the parties which prop up his minority government have already shown their unconditional support.

Catalan separatist party ERC said it would vote in favour of a confidence motion while hard-left party Podemos, which has clashed with Sánchez in the past, blasted attacks by “the political, media and judicial right” on the prime minister and the left in general.

While the conservative opposition has accused Sánchez of playing the victim to rally support, analysts said the possibility that he will resign cannot be completely ruled out.

“Sánchez’s closest advisers and the leadership of the Socialist party will probably spend the coming days trying to convince him to stay,” said Teneo analyst Antonio Barroso.

“The fact that the prime minister allegedly did not consult any of his advisers when drafting the letter suggests personal reasons might be his main motivation. This makes Sánchez’s decision particularly hard to predict.”

If Sánchez does step down, the Socialist party could propose that parliament appoint someone else as head of the government, with Budget Minister María Jesús Montero, who also serves as deputy prime minister, touted as a likely contender.

But Barroso said it “would probably be hard for Montero to cobble together a majority” in Spain’s highly fractured parliament.

Sánchez could instead resign and call snap elections but he would not be able to do so before May 29 since a year must pass between consecutive dissolutions of parliament.

With the Socialists trailing the main opposition conservative Popular Party in opinion polls, this is a risky strategy, although analysts said Sánchez may bet that leftist voters will be galvanised by the controversy sparked by his resignation.

READ ALSO: Spanish prosecutors question credibility of corruption probe against PM’s wife

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