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Another shake-up for German politics as CSU’s Horst Seehofer set to quit

Horst Seehofer has announced he will step down as leader of the Bavarian Christian Socialists (CSU), the sister party of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU). It's the latest shake-up in the changing landscape of German politics.

Published: 12 November 2018 12:10 CET

Another shake-up for German politics as CSU’s Horst Seehofer set to quit

Horst Seehofer on Monday. Photo: DPA

The headline in German publication Zeit Online said it all: “Na, endlich.” – 'Well, finally.”

Since the CSU suffered historic losses in the Bavaria elections last month, there's been speculation on the 69-year-old's future in politics.

Now there's a bit more clarity.

Speaking to reporters in Bautzen, Saxony, on Monday Seehofer confirmed his decision to quit as head of CSU, which he has led since 2008.

“I will resign as party leader – this decision has been made”, he said, reported Zeit Online.

However, he denied a planned resignation from his role as Interior Ministry before his term ends in 2021, which some German publications had been speculating on.

“I am the Federal Minister of the Interior and will continue to hold this office. The office of the Federal Minister of the Interior is in no way affected by this decision,” he said.

On Sunday evening, Seehofer had informed top CSU leaders of his decision. The information was leaked to the press shortly after.

German media reported that he would step down at the beginning of 2019 and that a new leader would be elected at a special party conference.

However, Seehofer said that the timeline of his resignation as CSU leader had not yet been determined. A decision and statement will be released this week.

After he leaves, it's most likely that Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Söder will take the top spot in the CSU party.

Why now?

Seehofer's resignation is not a huge surprise. He's been facing mounting pressure from party members to quit since the disastrous election results achieved by the CSU in the state elections in Bavaria on October 14th.

The party dropped 10 percentage points, to achieve 37.2%, its worst result since the 1950s.

The CSU is now dependent on the Free Voters as coalition partners after losing its absolute majority.

But there's more. Seehofer tried out some risky tactics recently, including threatening to quit if Germany didn't take a tougher stance on migrants and refugees.

Although he hoped it would win back right-wing voters who had drifted away from the party in the direction of Alternative for Germany (AfD), he was criticized for endangering the coalition and making Germany unstable.

Meanwhile, the case of Hans-Georg Maaßen, the former head of Germany's domestic security intelligence agency, has also been a thorn in the side of Seehofer.

The CSU leader stood by Maaßen after he gave an interview to a newspaper, contradicting Angela Merkel and the government.

After Maaßen was sacked and controversially promoted, a deal was eventually reached where the domestic intelligence specialist would become an adviser in the Interior Ministry office.

But after Maaßen's farewell speech, in which he took aim at the government, came to light, he lost the role that Seehofer had found for him.

The whole debacle caused some damage to Seehofer's reputation.

The debate over Seehofer's future was further fuelled – and his resignation likely accelerated – by Chancellor Angela Merkel's announcement that she would hand over the CDU chairmanship in December.

Many commentators believed it was high time that Seehofer gave up his power too.

DPA reported that almost all CSU district chairmen spoke of a devastating mood at grassroots level at the internal CSU meeting on Sunday

It's clear party members think it's time for change.

Meanwhile, Seehofer is facing calls from political opponents to quit immediately, rather than on his terms.

The Greens in the Bundestag demanded his immediate resignation from the Interior Ministry. “Every day that Horst Seehofer remains Interior Minister is one day too many,” faction leader Katrin Göring-Eckardt told the Tagesspiegel on Monday.

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Output is expected to expand 0.3 percent this year, the economy ministry said, up from a prediction of 0.2 percent in February.

The slightly rosier picture comes after improvements in key indicators — from factory output to business activity — boosted hopes a recovery may be getting under way.

The German economy shrank slightly last year, hit by soaring inflation, a manufacturing slowdown and weakness in trading partners, and has acted as a major drag on the 20-nation eurozone.

But releasing its latest projections, the economy ministry said in a statement there were growing indications of a “turning point”.

“Signs of an economic upturn have increased significantly, especially in recent weeks,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.

The ministry also cut its forecast for inflation this year to 2.4 percent, from a previous prediction of 2.8 percent, and sees the figure falling below two percent next year.

“The fall in inflation will lead to consumer demand — people have more money in their wallets again, and will spend this money,” said Habeck.

“So purchasing power is increasing, real wages are rising and this will contribute to a domestic economic recovery.”

Energy prices — which surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had also fallen and supply chain woes had eased, he added.

Several months ago there had been expectations of a strong rebound in 2024, with forecasts of growth above one percent, but these were dialled back at the start of the year as the economy continued to languish.

‘Germany has fallen behind’

But improving signs have fuelled hopes the lumbering economy — while not about to break into a sprint — may at least be getting back on its feet.

On Wednesday a closely-watched survey from the Ifo institute showed business sentiment rising for a third consecutive month in April, and more strongly than expected.

A key purchasing managers’ index survey this week showed that business activity in Germany had picked up.

And last week the central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast the economy would expand slightly in the first quarter, dodging a recession, after earlier predicting a contraction.

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) presents the latest economic forecasts at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday, April 24th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Despite the economy’s improving prospects, growth of 0.3 percent is still slower than other developed economies and below past rates, and officials fret it is unlikely to pick up fast in the years ahead.

Habeck has repeatedly stressed solutions are needed for deep-rooted problems facing Germany, from an ageing population to labour shortages and a transition towards greener industries that is moving too slowly.

“Germany has fallen behind other countries in terms of competitiveness,” he said. “We still have a lot to do — we have to roll up our sleeves.”

Already facing turbulence from pandemic-related supply chain woes, the German economy’s problems deepened dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed supplies of gas, hitting the country’s crucial manufacturers hard.

While the energy shock has faded, continued weakness in trading partners such as China, widespread strikes in recent months and higher eurozone interest rates have all prolonged the pain.

The European Central Bank has signalled it could start cutting borrowing costs in June, which would boost the eurozone.

But Habeck stressed that care was still needed as, despite the expectations of imminent easing, “tight monetary policy has not yet been lifted.”

In addition, disagreements in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party ruling coalition are hindering efforts to reignite growth, critics say.

This week the pro-business FDP party, a coalition partner, faced an angry backlash from Scholz’s SPD when it presented a 12-point plan for an “economic turnaround”, including deep cuts to state benefits.

Christian Lindner, the fiscally hawkish FDP finance minister, welcomed signs of “stabilisation” in the economic forecasts but stressed that projected medium-term growth was “too low to sustainably finance our state”.

“There are no arguments for postponing the economic turnaround,” he added.