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Merkel: People’s parties are ‘in danger’

In light of falling poll results, German Chancellor Angela Merkel sees the status of the Christian Democrats (CDU) as a people's party in danger. Is there hope before the elections in Hesse this Sunday?

Merkel: People's parties are 'in danger'
The CDU's Chancellor Angela Merkel and Hesse Minister President Volker Bouffier on Sunday. Photo: DPA

If Germans continues to dwell on what could have been done differently with the refugee policy in 2015, rather than focusing on the party’s current agenda, “then we will lose the character of a people's party,” the party leader warned on Saturday at the state party conference of the Thuringian CDU.

The Chancellor further warned against “left experiments” before the state elections in Hesse next Sunday.

Both the CDU and SPD currently fear severe losses in the Hesse election this upcoming Sunday. According to the latest polls, the CDU stands to receive 26 percent of the vote, the Greens 20 to 22 percent, and and the SPD 20 to 21 percent.

The FDP and the Left are each estimated to reach about 8 percent of the vote, while the AfD would receive 12 percent of the votes. The Greens, SPD and Left could possibly achieve a majority together.

Like Merkel, Hesse's Minister President Volker Bouffier warned against such a set-up in the state parliament: “Those who refuse to vote for the CDU now will wake up with a left-wing majority,” he said after a meeting of the CDU federal executive in Berlin on Sunday.

SEE ALSO: Hesse follows Bavaria into crucial state election

“The last thing we need in Hesse would be a left-wing government,” said Bouffier, whose CDU has formed a coalition with the Greens since the 2013 state elections. “That would be catastrophic for this economically strong state. That would cost us thousands of jobs. That would reduce investment in our country and would cause immediate damage.”

CDU Secretary General Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer also believes there’s “a very real danger” that there will be a left-wing government. Similarly as to when the CSU lost their ruling majority in the October 14th Bavarian election, Merkel could come under considerable pressure in the event of a loss of power in Hesse.

Low results nationwide

Nationwide, the Union and the SPD together only account for about 40 percent of the vote, according to the new “Sunday trend” by Emnid for the “Bild am Sonntag”. The CDU/CSU is at 25 percent while the the SPD stands at 15 percent – both all-time lows. The main winners are likely to be the Greens, who achieved 19 percent in the poll.

This weekend, SPD chairwoman Andrea Nahles defended the controversial grand coalition – threatened by an election shake up in Hesse –  pointing out that the SPD is the party most committed to affordable housing and stable pensions.

“We make politics for the many and not for the few,” she told “Bild am Sonntag”.

SEE ALSO: Germany's ruling parties hit all time low, Greens on the up

Federal Family Minister Franziska Giffey (SPD) told Deutschlandfunk radio that “when things get difficult, you can't run away.The CDU/SPD coalition agreement included so many good points for the country which the two parties are still working to implement, she added.  

An election quake in Hesse – possibly a Green prime minister – could also call into question Merkel's renewed candidacy for the CDU presidency at the party conference in December.

Merkel stressed that party chairmanship and chancellorship belong in one hand; otherwise power could crumble. For the SPD in particular, there are hardly any alternatives in nationwide surveys of 14 percent; in a new election it could only end up in fourth place behind the Greens and the AfD.

“For a year now, we have been dealing far too much with whether we should be offended or not,” Merkel said in view of the inner-party quarrels between the CDU and CSU following the poor results of the 2017 Bundestag elections (32.9 percent). “We should rather look to the future with optimism”.

The embattled SPD leader Nahles called on her party not to give up. “I am determined to roll up my sleeves and fight,” she said on Saturday at a European party conference of the Rhineland-Palatinate SPD. She remained optimistic that party leader Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel could become Minister President in Hesse on October, Nahles said.

The Green politician Cem Özdemir spoke in the newspaper “Welt am Sonntag” of a “tectonic shift of plates in the party landscape” in view of Greens’ upward swing.

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POLITICS

Why a row has broken out in Germany over pension reforms

Government parties in Germany are in a bitter row over the future of pensions and retirement in Germany. Here's a quick overview of what you need to know.

Why a row has broken out in Germany over pension reforms

Germany’s coalition government is having a rough time of it. 

Since the three parties – the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP) – entered a coalition after the federal election in 2021, they have seen a significant dip in popularity according to polls. 

Despite some high profile policy achievements, such as citizenship and immigration reforms as well as the partial legalisation of cannabis, the coalition’s reputation has been marred by infighting. 

And the latest sticking point is pension policy. 

READ ALSO: Is it worthwhile to set up a private pension plan in Germany?

What’s the issue with pensions?

Last week, a high profile and long-awaited approval by the cabinet on a package shaking up pensions in Germany – called Rentenpaket II – was postponed. 

According to reports, Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) had the topic removed from the agenda – effectively blocking it from moving forward.

That is despite Lindner agreeing on the pension reform, along with Labour Minister Hubertus Heil (SPD) and Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens), months ago.

The package, which Heil and Lindner presented in March, is intended to guarantee a pension level of 48 percent for the future — meaning that pensions would equate to 48 percent of your average salary over the course of your working time.

The government also plans to invest billions in the capital market and pay annual subsidies to the pension insurance from the interest earned starting in the mid-2030s. It means that in addition to the contributions and subsidies from the federal budget, the pension insurance scheme would receive a third source of funding.

READ ALSO: How Germany plans to stabilise pension contributions

But the final go ahead for the package has been stalled due to various disputes on social security and pensions — including over the budgeting for it. 

FDP calls for ‘fair’ budget policy 

The situation has got further complicated — and messy — after the FDP spoke out once again in favour of restricting early retirement at 63 in Germany, as part of a new policy paper urging a ‘budget turnaround’.

In the five-point paper on the welfare state, the Finance Minister’s party warns of the consequences of the current pension package, saying it will “overburden” budgets with too much spending on social welfare. 

The FDP's Christian Lindner has been rocking the coalition boat this week.

The FDP’s Christian Lindner. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Jessica Lichetzki

The FDP says it wants a “budget policy that is fair to all generations”. They want to see reforms to the social system as well as restricting access to early pensions for those who qualify. 

The latest policy paper, which the FDP plans to adopt at an executive meeting on Monday, echoes what the party has said previously in a 12-point plan aiming to ‘turn the economy around’ where it outlined how long-term unemployment benefit sanctions should be tougher. 

READ ALSO: Why a push for tougher benefit sanctions in Germany is sparking a dispute

What’s the reaction?

The FDP’s plans have been met with criticism from its coalition partners, the SPD and the Greens.

SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert rejected the proposals, including to restrict retirement at 63. “We can’t do that,” Kühnert told German broadcasters on Monday. 

He firmly believes that the cabinet will approve the coalition’s ‘pension package II’ in May as well as the 2025 budget in July.

“But everyone should now focus on the matter and publish fewer point papers,” he added, in view of the FDP’s recent pushes to assert its policies. 

However, it is unclear whether the FDP will agree to the pension package in its current form given the recent uproar. The decision to release these policy papers may also be a tactic to try and pull in potential voters ahead of the nationwide election in Germany in autumn 2025. 

Other politicians have hit out at the FDP. 

SPD party leader Saskia Esken told the Süddeutsche Zeitung that it wasn’t helpful if negotiations on the 2025 budget were accompanied by party-affiliated position papers every week.

Esken also said social security in Germany is a “non-negotiable” for the party.

READ ALSO: How does Germany’s retirement age compare to the rest of Europe’s?

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