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Energy prices drive return to inflation

Inflation in Germany crept higher in March, driven by rebounding energy prices, preliminary data showed on Monday.

Energy prices drive return to inflation
Photo: DPA

The national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.3 percent year-on-year in March, up from 0.1 percent in February, federal statistics office Destatis said in a statement.

But the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) – the yardstick used by the European Central Bank (ECB) – was also back in positive territory, rising by 0.1 percent year-on-year in March, compared with a drop of 0.1 percent the previous month.

Nevertheless, both numbers are way below the ECB's target of 2.0 percent, which the central bank defines as price stability.

The March data are still only preliminary, since they are based on consumer price statistics from only six out of Germany's 16 regional states.

Final data including all 16 states will be published on April 15, Destatis said.

Analysts said the data should offer some hope that the eurozone can avoid a dangerous deflationary spiral of falling prices, since energy prices – which have fallen sharply in recent months — are now back on the increase.

The modest pick-up in inflation "was driven by a modest rebound in the oil price, amplified by the weaker euro," said Berenberg Bank economist Christian Schulz.

Commerzbank economist Marco Wagner agreed."According to our calculations, this increase is mainly attributable to energy prices, which have been rising again since February," he said.

"We assume that the inflation rate in Germany will continue rising in the course of the year. Energy prices will probably start to increase more quickly around mid-year. Moreover, labour costs, which are accelerating in part due to the minimum wage, will also intensify the underlying inflation pressure,"Wagner said.

The Commerzbank economist predicted that German inflation could reach around 2.0 percent by the end of this year.

Capital Economics economist Jennifer McKeown said she expected energy prices "to continue to exert a heavy drag on the headline rate for the next six months or so, which may see headline inflation dip back into negative territory in the near future. But the drag should ease somewhat later this year."

Given the relative strength of the German economy, "there is little risk of sustained deflation in Germany. And temporary falls in inflation and price cuts should have positive effects" on the economy, McKeown said.

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BUSINESS

France’s EDF hails €10billion profit, despite huge UK nuclear charge

French energy giant EDF has unveiled net profit of €10billion and cut its massive debt by increasing nuclear production after problems forced some plants offline.

France's EDF hails €10billion profit, despite huge UK nuclear charge

EDF hailed an “exceptional” year after its loss of €17.9billion in 2022.

Sales slipped 2.6 percent to €139.7billion , but the group managed to slice debt by €10billion euros to €54.4billion.

EDF said however that it had booked a €12.9 billion depreciation linked to difficulties at its Hinkley Point nuclear plant in Britain.

The charge includes €11.2 billion for Hinkley Point assets and €1.7billion at its British subsidiary, EDF Energy, the group explained.

EDF announced last month a fresh delay and additional costs for the giant project hit by repeated cost overruns.

“The year was marked by many events, in particular by the recovery of production and the company’s mobilisation around production recovery,” CEO Luc Remont told reporters.

EDF put its strong showing down to a strong operational performance, notably a significant increase in nuclear generation in France at a time of historically high prices.

That followed a drop in nuclear output in France in 2022. The group had to deal with stress corrosion problems at some reactors while also facing government orders to limit price rises.

The French reactors last year produced around 320.4 TWh, in the upper range of expectations.

Nuclear production had slid back in 2022 to 279 TWh, its lowest level in three decades, because of the corrosion problems and maintenance changes after
the Covid-19 pandemic.

Hinkley Point C is one of a small number of European Pressurised Reactors (EPRs) worldwide, an EDF-led design that has been plagued by cost overruns
running into billions of euros and years of construction delays.

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