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ECONOMY

Germany slashes 2013 growth forecast to 0.4 pct

Germany slashed Wednesday its estimate for growth this year by more than half, as Europe's debt crisis takes its toll on its top economy, but forecast a solid rebound in 2014.

Published: 16 January 2013 12:37 CET
Germany slashes 2013 growth forecast to 0.4 pct
Photo: DPA

Europe’s powerhouse economy should expand by 0.4 percent in 2013, Economy

Minister Philipp Rösler said, a sharp downwards revision from a previous forecast of 1.0 percent. In 2014, growth should be 1.6 percent, he said.

“There is every reason for confidence,” Rösler said in a statement as he presented the government’s annual economic report.

“We believe that the weak phase this winter will be overcome in the rest of the year and that our economy will get back into gear,” added the minister.

Germany has until recently fared better than most of its debt-stricken eurozone partners in the crisis but the economy began to slow sharply at the end of last year.

Data published on Tuesday showed Germany’s powerhouse economy grew by a mere 0.7 percent in 2012 after a stellar 2011 when GDP expanded by 3.0 percent. And the economy seemed to have slammed abruptly into reverse in the fourth quarter of the year, as officials estimate a contraction of 0.5 percent.

Germany has been hit not only by the woes of its eurozone trading partners but also by a slowing global economy that has reduced demand for its all-important exports.

Nevertheless, unemployment remains at low levels for the moment, although analysts have warned that this too cannot last forever.

Rösler himself said there would be around 60,000 more people unemployed in 2013 than in 2012 but said this period of weakness would be “temporary.”

“In the course of 2013, growth should noticeably pick up. It will be driven primarily by domestic demand,” he added.

Germany would achieve its goal of registering a structurally balanced budget in 2014, Rösler said.

AFP/mry

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

Published: 30 May 2023 15:46 CEST
How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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