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ECONOMY

Consumers bolster solid Q3 growth

Germany appeared to return to form as the eurozone's economic powerhouse in the third quarter, clocking up solid growth of 0.5 percent, official data showed on Tuesday.

Consumers bolster solid Q3 growth
Photo:DPA

However, analysts warned the region’s debilitating sovereign debt crisis will likely put an end to the growth party in the months to come.

Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0.5 percent on a quarterly basis in the period from July to September, fuelled by strong domestic demand and healthy consumer spending in particular, the federal statistics office Destatis said in a statement.

That marks something of a return to form for Europe’s biggest economy, after growth had slowed unexpectedly to 0.3 percent in the second quarter from a buoyant 1.3 percent in the first quarter.

“Positive impulses came primarily from domestic demand, with rising consumer spending in particular contributing to growth,” the statisticians at Destatis explained.

“In addition, investment in equipment also increased, while construction investment declined somewhat after a strong start to the year,” they said.

Foreign trade remained robust, with both exports and imports growing by around the same amount.

On a 12-month basis, however, German growth is slowing, with GDP expanding by 2.6 percent in the July-September period down from 3.0 percent in the preceding three months.

Destatis will publish a detailed breakdown of the growth figures on November 24.

But economists believe the economy will slow or even contract slightly in the fourth quarter as the eurozone debt crisis and the turbulence on the financial markets take their toll.

“The months July and August were simply too strong to have disappointing September numbers spoil the growth party,” ING Belgium economist Carsten Brzeski.

“Of course, third-quarter numbers come after an exceptionally weak second quarter, in which the shutdown of eight nuclear power plants had probably shaved off some 0.3 percentage points from the quarterly growth rate.”

The third-quarter figures put Germany on course for annual growth of 3.0 percent for the whole year, Brzeski said.

Nevertheless, sentiment indicators pointed to a “significant growth slowdown or even a contraction of the economy towards the end of the year” as a result of the debt crisis, the analyst cautioned.

For a long while, Germany had even benefitted from a weaker euro, very accommodative monetary policy and low funding costs, the expert suggested.

But with the crisis now pulling France and Italy into its maelstrom, the German economy would no longer be able to remain immune.

“Today’s numbers are as good as it gets for the German economy, at least for a short while,” Brzeski said. Berenberg Bank senior economist Christian Schulz agreed.

“This is likely to be the last quarter of significant growth for a while as the debt crisis is leading the economy to slip into a mild recession in the winter,” he said.

Nevertheless, any recession would only be confidence driven and “as soon as the crisis is back under control, confidence can return quickly and lead to a V-shaped return from mid next year,” Schulz said.

Many companies still had full order books, ensuring that production would not fall off a cliff immediately.

In addition, the export nation Germany “can benefit from the fact that the rest of the world does not seem to be dragged into the eurozone’s homemade recession so far,” the analyst said.

Simon Junker, economist at the DIW think-tank, similarly predicted a halt, albeit temporary, in German growth in the fourth quarter and Peter Kaidusch at Natixis said he was pencilling in slightly negative growth of around 0.2 percent for the period from October to December.

“Nevertheless, 2011 should come up with a growth of 3.0 percent, followed by 1.4 percent in 2012 and 2.0 percent in 2013,” Kaidusch said.

AFP/jcw

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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