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POLITICS

Find Germany’s Obama? Yes we Cem!

An overwhelming majority of Germans might adore US president-elect Barack Obama, but they're unlikely to vote for a comparable politician in their own backyard any time soon, argues The Local's Marc Young.

Find Germany's Obama? Yes we Cem!
Greens leader Cem Özdemir. Photo: DPA

In the wake of America’s historic election earlier this month, there’s been a scramble across Europe to find British, French and German versions of Obama. The president-elect will become the first African American to hold the country’s highest political office.

Commentators on both sides of the Atlantic have talked of the United States becoming the first post-racial western democracy and some have asked whether the same thing could happen in London, Paris or Berlin.

Plenty of minorities are politically active throughout the European Union, but they still face thick glass ceilings making it unlikely there will be an Indian-British prime minister at 10 Downing Street or a Senegalese-French president in the Élysée Palace any time soon.

Germany, sadly, is no different despite marking an important milestone this weekend: Cem Özdemir became the first person of Turkish descent to head a major German political party after being elected as co-leader of the environmentalist Greens on Saturday.

But Özdemir has no illusions about becoming Germany’s very own Obama.

“We have a lot of work to do before one day it no longer matters if someone has ancestors from Kazakhstan, from Anatolia, or whether they fought the Romans in the battle of the Teutoburg Forest,” Özdemir told Süddeutsche Zeitung on Monday. “Germany is still a developing country as far as having an open society goes.”

Of course, the United States is not Europe. Whereas America has always been a land of immigration, most EU nations have accepted foreigners on their shores by default, not design. Britain and France only become multicultural societies in the second half of the 20th century because of their colonial ties. Many Germans still consider their country to be neither multicultural nor a land of immigration, even though the millions of Turks who helped create West Germany’s post-war economic miracle have lived here for decades.

Your average German would probably agree that the Turks and other foreigners have enriched German society, but would he or she vote for a Turk as chancellor?

Cem Özdemir isn’t likely to lead Germany anyway as the head of what is presently the country’s smallest opposition party. But that doesn’t make the question any less valid.

Do Germans consider him an “Anatolian Swabian,” as he jokingly refers to himself, or do they see him and the millions of other people with Turkish roots living in Germany as simply tolerated guests in their country?

If language can offer insight into the collective consciousness of a nation, Germany has quite a way to go before there will be someone named Özdemir or Yilmaz taking up residence in the Chancellery in Berlin.

In the United States Barack Obama is an African American – that is, he’s an American who happens to have African roots. “African” is simply a modifier of his Americanness, just like there are countless other incarnations – such as Asian Americans, Irish Americans, and Italian Americans who are all simply variations of a single nationality.

That’s still not the case in a country like Germany that long clung to the concept of blood over birthright as a qualification for citizenship.

Özdemir this weekend made clear he was a “German of Turkish origin,” but the vast majority of Germans would probably label him a Deutsch-Türke – or a German-Turk. Even though he was born in Germany and carries a German passport, linguistically he remains a Turk who happens to have “German” as a hyphenated adjective to describe his identity.

But Özdemir knows who he is and where he belongs. And that’s an important first step.

ECONOMY

‘Turning point’: Is Germany’s ailing economy on the road to recovery?

The German government slightly increased its 2024 growth forecast Wednesday, saying there were signs Europe's beleaguered top economy was at a "turning point" after battling through a period of weakness.

'Turning point': Is Germany's ailing economy on the road to recovery?

Output is expected to expand 0.3 percent this year, the economy ministry said, up from a prediction of 0.2 percent in February.

The slightly rosier picture comes after improvements in key indicators — from factory output to business activity — boosted hopes a recovery may be getting under way.

The German economy shrank slightly last year, hit by soaring inflation, a manufacturing slowdown and weakness in trading partners, and has acted as a major drag on the 20-nation eurozone.

But releasing its latest projections, the economy ministry said in a statement there were growing indications of a “turning point”.

“Signs of an economic upturn have increased significantly, especially in recent weeks,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.

The ministry also cut its forecast for inflation this year to 2.4 percent, from a previous prediction of 2.8 percent, and sees the figure falling below two percent next year.

READ ALSO: Can Germany revive its struggling economy?

“The fall in inflation will lead to consumer demand — people have more money in their wallets again, and will spend this money,” said Habeck.

“So purchasing power is increasing, real wages are rising and this will contribute to a domestic economic recovery.”

Energy prices — which surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had also fallen and supply chain woes had eased, he added.

Several months ago there had been expectations of a strong rebound in 2024, with forecasts of growth above one percent, but these were dialled back at the start of the year as the economy continued to languish.

‘Germany has fallen behind’

But improving signs have fuelled hopes the lumbering economy — while not about to break into a sprint — may at least be getting back on its feet.

On Wednesday a closely-watched survey from the Ifo institute showed business sentiment rising for a third consecutive month in April, and more strongly than expected.

A key purchasing managers’ index survey this week showed that business activity in Germany had picked up.

And last week the central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast the economy would expand slightly in the first quarter, dodging a recession, after earlier predicting a contraction.

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) presents the latest economic forecasts at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday, April 24th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Despite the economy’s improving prospects, growth of 0.3 percent is still slower than other developed economies and below past rates, and officials fret it is unlikely to pick up fast in the years ahead.

Habeck has repeatedly stressed solutions are needed for deep-rooted problems facing Germany, from an ageing population to labour shortages and a transition towards greener industries that is moving too slowly.

“Germany has fallen behind other countries in terms of competitiveness,” he said. “We still have a lot to do — we have to roll up our sleeves.”

READ ALSO: Which German companies are planning to cut jobs?

Already facing turbulence from pandemic-related supply chain woes, the German economy’s problems deepened dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed supplies of gas, hitting the country’s crucial manufacturers hard.

While the energy shock has faded, continued weakness in trading partners such as China, widespread strikes in recent months and higher eurozone interest rates have all prolonged the pain.

The European Central Bank has signalled it could start cutting borrowing costs in June, which would boost the eurozone.

But Habeck stressed that care was still needed as, despite the expectations of imminent easing, “tight monetary policy has not yet been lifted.”

In addition, disagreements in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party ruling coalition are hindering efforts to reignite growth, critics say.

This week the pro-business FDP party, a coalition partner, faced an angry backlash from Scholz’s SPD when it presented a 12-point plan for an “economic turnaround”, including deep cuts to state benefits.

Christian Lindner, the fiscally hawkish FDP finance minister, welcomed signs of “stabilisation” in the economic forecasts but stressed that projected medium-term growth was “too low to sustainably finance our state”.

“There are no arguments for postponing the economic turnaround,” he added.

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