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ECONOMY

German economy surprises with robust Q1 growth

The German economy got off to a stronger-than-expected start to the year, growing 1.5 percent in the first quarter, preliminary data from the Federal Statistics Office showed on Thursday.

German economy surprises with robust Q1 growth
Photo: DPA

“The economic upswing of last year has continued unabated,” the Statistics Office said in a statement, adding that the world’s third largest economy had proven itself “very robust” despite the strong euro dragging on exports and oil prices at record highs.

Economists polled by Thomson Financial News had expected gross domestic product (GDP) in Europe’s largest economy to have expanded by only 0.7 percent. In the fourth quarter it grew 0.3 percent.

Data since the beginning of the year have suggested that the German economy was holding up surprisingly well despite the strength of the euro, rising energy and food prices, the credit crunch and a slowing of the US economy.

Industrial output, for example, grew 2.3 percent in the first quarter, data showed earlier this month, while exports – the motor of the German economy – were up 2.4 percent.

“The result shows that Germany – with painful reforms in previous years – has become stronger and more resilient to external shocks than before,” Bank of America economist Holger Schmieding said.

“For an economy that we had described as the ‘sick man of Europe’ until it started to get its act together again with the Hartz I-IV and other structural reforms five years ago, this is quite an achievement,” Schmieding said.

The contrast with other euro zone countries could not be starker. First quarter from the EU’s Eurostat data agency showed Thursday showed that the French economy grew by a mere 0.6 percent and Spain’s just 0.3 percent.

Germans cannot afford to be too smug, however, with the latest data and sentiment indicators suggesting that Germany cannot escape the global headwinds howling around the global economy for much longer.

German industrial output and exports fell in March, for instance, and the last reading of the closely watched Ifo sentiment index showed a steeper-than-expected decline. The Economy Ministry expects growth for the whole of 2008 of 1.2 percent, while the country’s six leading economic institutes expect 1.4 percent.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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