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Swedish central bank lowers interest rate for first time in eight years

Sweden's Riksbank central bank has lowered the country's main interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75 percent, down from 4 percent. This is the first time the bank has lowered the rate since 2016.

Swedish central bank lowers interest rate for first time in eight years
Erik Thedéen, governor of Sweden's Riksbank. File photo: Jonas Ekströmer/TT

The decision to lower the so-called policy rate was widely expected, as the central bank itself indicated in a policy rate prognosis from March that it could lower rates between five and six times before the end of 2025, starting in either May or June this year.

“Monetary policy and diminishing supply shocks have contributed to inflation falling, and now it’s nearing the target,” the bank wrote in a press statement.

The bank’s inflation target is 2 percent. In March, inflation was just 2.2 percent.

“If the inflation outlook remains the same, the policy rate could be lowered at least two more times in the second half of the year,” the bank wrote, adding that new information since its most recent monetary policy report was published in March “strengthens the picture of inflation also being closer to the target in the slightly longer term”.

This effectively rules out the possibility of a further rate cut in June.

It also warned that the outlooks for inflation are “uncertain”, highlighting the strong American economy, geopolitical unrest and the krona’s exchange rate as risk factors which could cause inflation to rise again.

“Changes to monetary policy should therefore be taken carefully, with gradual cuts to the policy rate.”

Thursday’s announcement is crucial, as the policy rate is the bank’s main monetary policy tool. It decides which rates Swedish banks can deposit in and borrow money from the Riksbank, which in turn affects the banks’ own interest rates on savings, loans and mortgages.

If bank interest rates are high, it’s expensive to borrow money, which means people spend less and as a result inflation drops.

This cut to the policy rate won’t immediately lower the cost of your mortgage, but it’s likely to have a knock-on effect.

At its last meeting before the cut, the bank chose to keep rates the same at 4 percent, where they stood since September last year – the highest policy rate seen in Sweden since 2008, and the end of almost a year and a half of interest rate hikes.

The bank predicted in March that the policy rate could drop to as low as 2.75 percent, a drop of 1.25 percentage points, by the end of 2025. If mortgage rates also drop by the same amount, it would reduce the cost of a 3 million kronor mortgage by around 3,000 kronor a month.

The new rate will come into effect on May 15th.

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ECONOMY

What Taylor Swift’s Stockholm gigs tell us about the Swedish economy

Taylor Swift's visit to Stockholm is expected to boost the capital's economy with international fans grabbing a 'bargain' thanks to the low Swedish krona, despite the fact that hotel rooms are almost 300 percent more expensive than normal.

What Taylor Swift's Stockholm gigs tell us about the Swedish economy

The weak Swedish currency, the krona, means tickets for Swift’s three Stockholm dates are more affordable than elsewhere for many foreigners.

Fans around the world seem to have heeded Swift’s lyric “Grab your passport and my hand”, with “Swifties” from 130 countries flocking to Stockholm. Many queued through the night outside the Stockholm arena before the US star’s first concert on Friday.

“In total we will see approximately 150,000 people attending the concerts in Stockholm. Of them, 120,000 will be traveling to Stockholm,” Stockholm Chamber of Commerce chief economist Carl Bergkvist told AFP.

“They will be spending approximately half a billion Swedish kronor ($46 million) during their stay here in Stockholm,” he said.

That is money dished out on hotels, meals, shopping and transport, among other things, but not concert tickets or flights, Bergkvist said.

After opening her European tour in Paris last weekend, Swift’s Stockholm shows are her only dates in the Nordic region.

The Visit Stockholm tourism agency was also in on the hype, with its webpage on Friday proudly declaring “Welcome to Swiftholm”.

But last-minute tourists will struggle to find a hotel room in the city.

“We have approximately 40,000 rooms in Stockholm – 80,000 beds – and 120,000 people coming here. So we will be out of hotel rooms and we see a price spike of approximately 295 percent,” Bergkvist said.

“As soon as these three concerts were announced, there was immediately a surge in demand,” Åsa Lilja, commercial director at hotel chain Ligula Hospitality Group, told AFP.

“This also led to a rise in prices,” she said.

Swift-flation?

Sweden has only recently managed to bring down recent years’ stubbornly high inflation.

Economists have expressed fears that the Swift craze could send Swedish consumer prices rising again, as they did when pop diva Beyoncé opened her European tour in Stockholm last May.

“There’s a risk that prices will rise for hotel and restaurant visits, the concert tickets and everything that goes along with” the show, Danske Bank economist Michael Grahn wrote in a note.

However, “the price pressure would have to be even stronger than (the Beyoncé effect in May) last year to be reflected in the inflation figures”.

Swedish central bank governor Erik Thedeen even took the influx of foreign Swifties as a sign that the Swedish “krona was fundamentally undervalued”.

“It’s clearly a bargain to come to Stockholm,” he said.

Meanwhile, fans seemed ready to spend whatever it takes to see Swift perform.

“I spent around 7,500 kronor ($697) in total for three tickets. I think it’s worth it,” said Filippa, a 21-year-old Swedish fan queuing up early Friday for the evening’s concert.

 
 
 
 
 
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