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France braces for rain and storms over long Easter weekend

The weather in France is forecast to be unsettled over the holiday period, with the south-east of the country, in particular, set for severe storms.

Published: 29 March 2024 13:17 CET

France braces for rain and storms over long Easter weekend

(Photo by Valery HACHE / AFP)

According to Météo France, rainy spell after rainy spell will be the norm over the Easter weekend across most of the country, with little sight of clear, blue skies, while an “épisode méditerranéen” is expected in the south-east of the country.

A low-pressure area brought high winds to parts of France on Good Friday, with two départements in the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region – Loire and Rhône – on orange weather alert at 12noon.

Wind gusts of up to 110km/h are expected in exposed areas, according to Météo-France.

It’s all relative, but the best of what’s set to be a pretty poor weekend of weather is expected on Saturday. Rain and storms will dominate all day from the Grand Est to the Mediterranean regions – except around the Pyrenees and in Corsica, both of which should enjoy blue skies for most of the day. Strong winds could cause problems in eastern areas, and rain is forecast overnight in the south-east.

On Easter Sunday, widespread rain is forecast, with the south-east of the country braced for stormy conditions, bringing – according to some forecast models – up to three months’ rainfall in just 48 hours.

By early afternoon, showers will be widespread across the whole of the country, while winds are expected to reach 80km/h along the Rhône. Snow will fall on the Pyrenees and the Alps.

Temperatures will range from 11C to 15C in most regions, rising to around 20C in Corsica.

Easter Monday, meanwhile, is forecast to be rainy across almost all of France, with only the Pyrenees regions seeing any sunshine. After Sunday, however, it is likely to be regarded as an improvement.

Unsettled conditions are then expected to last until Wednesday, before temperatures start to rise heading into the first weekend of schools’ staggered Spring holiday period – though the skies are likely to remain grey.

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How likely are droughts and water restrictions in France in summer 2024?

France’s Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) most recent report, in early March, revealed that the water table in France was ‘satisfactory over a large part of the country’, with levels above normal for the time of year in 46 percent of the country’s underground aquifers.

It warned at the time, however, that levels were low to very low in parts of Alsace, as well as in the Saône corridor and areas of Languedoc, from the south of the Massif Central to the coast, and the Roussillon area of southwest France.

March, too, was a wet month across the bulk of France – it was the fifth wettest since records began in 1958, according to national forecaster Météo-France.

Crucially however, most of the rain falling on the ground in France now will be gobbled up by vegetation, which means that very little water will make it through to aquifers. The groundwater recharge period, when underground water tables are refilled, is now over until late autumn 2024.

Basically, the water table is about as high as it’s going to get this summer.

Which brings us back to the weather.

Long-range forecasts are notoriously inaccurate but after a mild, wet winter, forecasters expect another dry, warm summer overall, following a cooler-than-normal and occasionally wet spring.

April, for example, is set to be marked by cool spells, though, for the April-May-June quarter as a whole, temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal averages. Forecasters warn that a higher-than-usual number of Spring storms could affect the south-east of the country.

Long-range models suggest, however, that June could be hot and dry, with consequences for agriculture – though groundwater levels should be high enough to cope comfortably.

Forecasting further into the summer is even less certain than normal because – over in the Pacific – El Nino is expected to be replaced by La Nina much faster than normal, making weather prediction difficult.

The consensus is, however, that the cooling effect of La Nina will not be felt until much later in the year. That said, it will have a more immediate effect on weather activity in the North Atlantic. Forecasters are already predicting a record-breaking hurricane season – which will have an effect on French weather patterns.

Between May and July, forecast temperatures in France are likely to remain 1C to 2C above seasonal averages. Precipitation is expected to be fairly close to average, with a tendency for thunderstorms, especially in the south.

Forecast models predict a wet end to April, a fine and dry May, a hot and occasionally thundery June, and a warmer-than-normal July punctuated by thunderstorms – though some forecasts suggest more mixed weather in the north in the seventh month.

With water tables currently well recharged, the national water situation for the summer is, right now, giving experts little cause for concern.

Thunderstorms are expected to provide occasional watering to limit surface drought, which is always possible even if water tables are well recharged. The summer of 2024 therefore looks set to be different from recent droughts.

However, this is not to say water restrictions are not impossible, or even unlikely. In certain areas, notably the Aude and Pyrénées-Orientales, where rainfall has been well below average for years, the situation is already serious.

While the rest of the country saw high rainfall in March, these two départements were recording 50 percent less rain than normal.

These areas are already facing a range of water restrictions. To find out whether restrictions are in place where you live, consult the Vigieau website, which offers information on a national, regional and local level.

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