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TERROR

Sweden warns of growing threat from Russia, as well as China and Iran

Sweden's security service, Säpo, said Russia posed a threat to its territorial security amid heightened interest in the Arctic as the Scandinavian country prepares to join Nato.

Sweden warns of growing threat from Russia, as well as China and Iran
A headline in the Swedish security service's report reading 'serious security situation'. Photo: Pontus Lundahl/TT

Moscow also increasingly poses a threat of industrial espionage, as Sweden was seeing a rise in undercover agents from several countries, Säpo said as it presented its annual threat assessment report on Wednesday.

Sweden dropped two centuries of military non-alignment and applied for Nato membership in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Stockholm expects Hungary, the last holdout, to ratify its membership on Monday.

Säpo noted that Russia, along with China, was “conducting security-threatening activities in northernmost Sweden”, and Sweden’s and Finland’s Nato membership would extend the alliance’s border in the Arctic regions.

“Russia’s interest in northern Sweden primarily concerns Swedish military capabilities,” the intelligence service said.

Säpo chief Charlotte von Essen told reporters Sweden’s security situation had deteriorated since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine continues, the situation in the Middle East is serious after Hamas’s attack against Israel on October 7th and in Sweden we have during the last year gone from an elevated to a high terror threat level,” she told reporters.

Säpo said activities threatening Sweden’s security were “conducted on a broad front, and foreign powers act offensively.”

It singled out as an example the illicit acquisition of technology which could later be used in Russia’s military industry.

China, Iran also threats

In January 2023, a former Swedish intelligence officer was handed a life sentence for spying for Russia.

And in September, a Russian-Swedish national went on trial accused of passing Western technology to Russia’s military. A Stockholm court found he had exported the material but ruled his actions did not amount to intelligence gathering.

Säpo’s assessment came just two days after Sweden’s military intelligence service Must also pointed to Russia as the primary threat against the Nordic country.

Säpo also highlighted the threat of intelligence activities from China and Iran.

China was seen as an economic threat, acquiring “Swedish innovations, technological know-how and cutting-edge knowledge from industry and universities.”

Säpo also recalled that Sweden had in the past year gone from being a legitimate target to a more prioritised target for Islamist extremists, following a slew of protests involving desecrations of the Quran in the country.

“The perception of Sweden has ultimately become a question of our security,” von Essen said.

In October, two Swedish football fans were shot dead in Brussels by an Islamist gunman.

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MILITARY

EXPLAINED: What you need to know about Sweden’s new military spending report

Sweden's parliamentary defence commission on Friday recommended adding 52.8 billion kronor to the national defence budget by 2030, taking defence spending to 2.6 percent of GDP.

EXPLAINED: What you need to know about Sweden's new military spending report

What is the Swedish Defence Commision? 

The Swedish Defence Commission is a cross-party forum which seeks to ensure broad political agreement around Sweden’s defence requirements. It brings together representatives of all eight parties in the Swedish parliament, with two each from the Moderates, Sweden Democrats and Social Democrats and one each for the other parties.

There are also advisers and experts from the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry for Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Finance, the Prime Minister’s Office, the Swedish Armed Forces, the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration and the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency. Members of the committee are supported by a secretariat comprising one principal secretary and five secretaries.

What is the report they have delivered? 

The committee on Friday delivered its final, report, “Strengthened defence capability, Sweden as an Ally“, meeting the deadline given by the country’s defence minister Pål Jonson when he ordered the committee to develop proposals for a new defence bill in December 2022, with a total of four reports, the first three of which were delivered in April 2023, June 2023, December 2023. 

What have they recommended? 

The committee have recommended that Sweden’s budget is increased from 119 billion kronor a year in 2024 to 185 billion kronor in 2030, which would bring total spending to 2.6 percent of Sweden’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). 

The committee said it agreed with the recommendations given by Micael Byden, Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces in November 2023, which were that Sweden should increase or improve: 

  • air defence and in particular its cooperation within NATO’s Integrated Air and Missile Defence (IAMD)
  • its ability to combat air, land and sea drones 
  • its integration with NATO’s command system
  • its logistics, so that it can provide Host Nation Support and serve as a base for other units from other Nato countries. 
  • its capacity to operate with military units outside Sweden’s borders 

But the committee also made additional recommendations beyong those given by the armed forces, calling for: 

  • two new army brigades, so that Sweden would have three mechanised brigades and one infantry brigade by 2030
  • a new Norrland Infantry Regiment,
  • an increase in the number of conscripts trained a year from the current level of 8,000 to 10,000 in 2030 and 12,000 in 2032, and possibly to 14,000 in 2035
  • a boost in Sweden’s air defence capability, particularly to counter drone attacks 
  • stocking up on additional ammunition, including air-to-air and cruise missiles, and spare parts 
  • 20 new companies and platoons dedicated to defending Sweden’s territories 
  • increased refresher courses for conscripts, extra funding of voluntary defence organisations, and expansion of the officer education programme

How will the cost of funding this military expansion be met? 

While they were agreed on what needed to be done, party representatives on the committee did not agree on how much needed to be spent or how ti should be financed. 

The Centre Party representative said that spending should be higher, comprising 3 percent of GDP. 

The representatives from the Social Democrats, Left Party, and Green Party, added a statement to the report when they called for a section on how the extra spending should be financed.  

Peter Hultqvist, who served as defence minister under the former Social Democrat government, called for a new beredskapsskatt, or “Readiness Tax” to fund the increase, saying it was disappointing that the committee had not been able to agree on financing. 

“This demand is so big that it risks pushing other pressing requirements out of government spending plans,” he said. “There is a risk that healthcare, education and elderly care will be hit.” 

But Ulf Kristersson, Sweden’s prime minister, rejected the idea of a new tax. 

“It’s no secret that the parties on the left always see reasons to raise taxes, and that’s the case this time as well, I assume. But that is not our way forward,” he said. “We must be able to prioritise Swedish defense, and I understand that there is now complete agreement that it is an important political task.” 

Anna Starbrink, a defence spokesperson for the Liberals, the smallest party in the government, said that the Swedish Defence Commission had not in the past been tasked with developing funding proposals. 

“This is a new idea from the opposition and from the Social Democrats’ side is about nothing more than forcing through a new tax hike through the defence commission, and that’s something the rest of us don’t want to go along with,” she said. 

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