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WEATHER

Forecast: Where in France will see the worst of the icy weather?

Temperatures are expected to plunge below zero across France from this weekend. Here’s what to expect.

Published: 5 January 2024 10:47 CET
Forecast: Where in France will see the worst of the icy weather?
Expect difficut driving conditions next week, as temperatures plummet. (Photo by SEBASTIEN BOZON / AFP)

Starting this weekend, the wet and mild weather that soaked much of France over the Christmas and New Year holiday period is expected to be replaced by a freeze that could last for several days, with temperatures predicted to fall below zero in much of the country.

For the first time since February 2018, France’s national heat indicator – the national average of daytime and night-time temperatures – could dip below zero on Tuesday.

On Saturday, the north-east is forecast to have its first local frosts of 2024, as cold air from the north and east spreads over the country.

Temperatures in northern France are not expected to get above 8C, while the south could see the mercury rise to 11C.

Starting on Sunday, the north-eastern quarter will likely see more serious frosts, with daily temperatures close to 0C in the Paris region; and no higher than 1C in Strasbourg, Clermont-Ferrand and Lille; and 2C in Rennes. Elsewhere, a high of 9C is forecast in Marseille, and 8C in Bordeaux. 

READ ALSO ‘It’s duck cold!’: How the French complain about winter weather

In the south, however, strong chilly winds will make it feel much colder, notably in the Rhône Valley and around the Pyrénées-Orientales.

Cold air is expected settle over most of France from Monday. Morning frosts are forecast in most areas, while temperatures are likely to fall as low as -5C from the Massif Central to the eastern borders for a good part of the week. Some forecasts predict local temperatures as low as -10C.

At the start of the week, maximum temperatures will struggle to pass 0C in the eastern half of the country, as far north as the Ile de France, according to national forecaster Météo-France. In fact, only the coastal north-west, south-west, and around the Mediterranean are predicted to see daytime temperatures rise noticeably above freezing – though the wind chill may make it feel much colder.

As of Friday, Météo-France, however, had not yet designated the upcoming cold period as a cold snap (vague de froid), which has a very specific definition.

For a cold snap to be declared, France must experience three consecutive days in which temperatures dip below -2C, and rise no higher than 0.9C. It officially ends when temperatures rise above 2.2C.

READ ALSO IN PICTURES: You think it’s cold in Paris now but look how chilly it got in days gone by

Cold snaps can also be characterised on a regional scale when cold spells last at least two days and temperatures are well below seasonal normals for the region concerned.

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ENVIRONMENT

How likely are droughts and water restrictions in France in summer 2024?

Much of France has faced severe flooding this winter, but other areas already face water restrictions, and there's an extra variable in store global weather patterns play their part

Published: 12 April 2024 17:50 CEST
How likely are droughts and water restrictions in France in summer 2024?

France’s Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) most recent report, in early March, revealed that the water table in France was ‘satisfactory over a large part of the country’, with levels above normal for the time of year in 46 percent of the country’s underground aquifers.

It warned at the time, however, that levels were low to very low in parts of Alsace, as well as in the Saône corridor and areas of Languedoc, from the south of the Massif Central to the coast, and the Roussillon area of southwest France.

March, too, was a wet month across the bulk of France – it was the fifth wettest since records began in 1958, according to national forecaster Météo-France.

Crucially however, most of the rain falling on the ground in France now will be gobbled up by vegetation, which means that very little water will make it through to aquifers. The groundwater recharge period, when underground water tables are refilled, is now over until late autumn 2024.

Basically, the water table is about as high as it’s going to get this summer.

Which brings us back to the weather.

Long-range forecasts are notoriously inaccurate but after a mild, wet winter, forecasters expect another dry, warm summer overall, following a cooler-than-normal and occasionally wet spring.

April, for example, is set to be marked by cool spells, though, for the April-May-June quarter as a whole, temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal averages. Forecasters warn that a higher-than-usual number of Spring storms could affect the south-east of the country.

Long-range models suggest, however, that June could be hot and dry, with consequences for agriculture – though groundwater levels should be high enough to cope comfortably.

Forecasting further into the summer is even less certain than normal because – over in the Pacific – El Nino is expected to be replaced by La Nina much faster than normal, making weather prediction difficult. 

The consensus is, however, that the cooling effect of La Nina will not be felt until much later in the year. That said, it will have a more immediate effect on weather activity in the North Atlantic. Forecasters are already predicting a record-breaking hurricane season – which will have an effect on French weather patterns.

Between May and July, forecast temperatures in France are likely to remain 1C to 2C above seasonal averages. Precipitation is expected to be fairly close to average, with a tendency for thunderstorms, especially in the south.

Forecast models predict a wet end to April, a fine and dry May, a hot and occasionally thundery June, and a warmer-than-normal July punctuated by thunderstorms – though some forecasts suggest more mixed weather in the north in the seventh month.

With water tables currently well recharged, the national water situation for the summer is, right now, giving experts little cause for concern. 

Thunderstorms are expected to provide occasional watering to limit surface drought, which is always possible even if water tables are well recharged. The summer of 2024 therefore looks set to be different from recent droughts. 

However, this is not to say water restrictions are not impossible, or even unlikely. In certain areas, notably the Aude and Pyrénées-Orientales, where rainfall has been well below average for years, the situation is already serious.

While the rest of the country saw high rainfall in March, these two départements were recording 50 percent less rain than normal.

These areas are already facing a range of water restrictions. To find out whether restrictions are in place where you live, consult the Vigieau website, which offers information on a national, regional and local level.

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