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GERMAN REUNIFICATION

33 years on: Are east and west Germany growing apart?

More than 30 years after reunification, a new study has shown that a majority of Germans think that the country is disunited. But are there other signs that the nation may be splitting?

Published: 26 September 2023 17:11 CEST
Updated: 27 September 2023 11:12 CEST

A cyclist rides past the Berlin Wall memorial. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Fabian Sommer

The 3rd of October will mark the 33rd anniversary of German Reunification – the day when the German Democratic Republic (East Germany) officially rejoined the Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany), following decades of separation.

But ahead of the celebrations next week, a new study has revealed a concerning trend: that east and west Germany appear to be drifting apart once again.

The survey, conducted by the independent opinion research Forsa for Stern magazine revealed that, in today’s Germany, 60 percent believe that the country is more divided than united, while only 37 percent think that people in the East have significantly integrated into one united nation.

These findings mark a stark contrast to 2019 when the majority (51 percent) perceived unity, and only a minority (45 percent) felt that the country was more united than divided.

The perception of unity is notably weaker in East Germany, with a staggering 75 percent feeling that – 34 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall – division still prevails. In the so-called “new states” of Mecklenburg Western-Pommerania, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Brandenburg and Thuringia, only 21 percent see Germany as being a unified nation.

Curiously, Germans aged 60 and older appear to have an especially pessimistic view of unity, with 69 percent of them perceiving continued division.

The Free Democratic Party (FDP) stands out as the only political group where a majority views unity positively, with 48 percent believing in the country’s reunification, while 46 percent see the dominance of differences.

In contrast, supporters of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) are the most sceptical, with 71 percent of them feeling that division outweighs unity.

Economic and political divides

It seems, however, that the divide between east and west Germany is not just limited to sentiment.

Figures from Germany’s Statistical Office in response to an inquiry by the Left Party from July this year revealed that there are significant economic disparities between east and west Germany.

According to the figures, people in the former East earn approximately €13,000 less per year than their western counterparts and the annual gross salary of full-time employees in the east was significantly lower than in the west in 2022, with this difference growing over the past few years.

An AfD election poster with the slogan "The East stands up!" hangs on a main road in the district of Sonneberg, Thuringia.

An AfD election poster with the slogan “The East stands up!” hangs on a main road in the district of Sonneberg, Thuringia. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Martin Schutt

One particularly shocking statistic showed that there was an average wage difference of more than €21,000 per year between Mecklenburg Western-Pommerania and Hamburg.

In response to these wage disparities, Sören Pellmann, the East Commissioner of the Left Party, drew a connection to the rise of the AfD in the eastern states, saying that it “should come as no surprise” that the AfD garners substantial support in the former East.

The rise of the AfD in eastern states could also be interpreted as a sign of growing division in Germany.

In the last six months, a small town in rural Saxony-Anhalt elected the country’s first AfD mayor, an AfD party member became a district administrator in South Thuringia, while AfD candidates are increasingly participating in runoff elections for top local offices in major or university cities like Schwerin and Cottbus.

There’s even speculation that the AfD could succeed in many if not all, constituencies in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg with their direct candidates in the upcoming state elections next year.

A recent study published by the Else-Frenkel-Brunswik Institute of the University of Leipzig in June also revealed that many people in eastern Germany hold extreme right-wing opinions.

The study – a representative survey of 3,546 people in the former eastern German states of Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia and east Berlin – demonstrated a high level of approval for right-wing extremist statements.

However, as Frankfurt Allgemeine Zeitung journalist, Daniel Deckers pointed out in a recent article, the AfD has its hold in the west of the country, too.

“15,000 votes in Sonneberg may seem insignificant compared to the over 800,000 votes the AfD received in the 2016 state election in Baden-Württemberg, or the potential 15 percent share it could garner in North Rhine-Westphalia, the AfD’s origins can be traced to the West. Most of the party’s prominent figures were socialized in the old, compromise-oriented Federal Republic, unlike in East Germany, where the legacy of two failed dictatorships continues to influence three generations.”

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Output is expected to expand 0.3 percent this year, the economy ministry said, up from a prediction of 0.2 percent in February.

The slightly rosier picture comes after improvements in key indicators — from factory output to business activity — boosted hopes a recovery may be getting under way.

The German economy shrank slightly last year, hit by soaring inflation, a manufacturing slowdown and weakness in trading partners, and has acted as a major drag on the 20-nation eurozone.

But releasing its latest projections, the economy ministry said in a statement there were growing indications of a “turning point”.

“Signs of an economic upturn have increased significantly, especially in recent weeks,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.

The ministry also cut its forecast for inflation this year to 2.4 percent, from a previous prediction of 2.8 percent, and sees the figure falling below two percent next year.

“The fall in inflation will lead to consumer demand — people have more money in their wallets again, and will spend this money,” said Habeck.

“So purchasing power is increasing, real wages are rising and this will contribute to a domestic economic recovery.”

Energy prices — which surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had also fallen and supply chain woes had eased, he added.

Several months ago there had been expectations of a strong rebound in 2024, with forecasts of growth above one percent, but these were dialled back at the start of the year as the economy continued to languish.

‘Germany has fallen behind’

But improving signs have fuelled hopes the lumbering economy — while not about to break into a sprint — may at least be getting back on its feet.

On Wednesday a closely-watched survey from the Ifo institute showed business sentiment rising for a third consecutive month in April, and more strongly than expected.

A key purchasing managers’ index survey this week showed that business activity in Germany had picked up.

And last week the central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast the economy would expand slightly in the first quarter, dodging a recession, after earlier predicting a contraction.

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) presents the latest economic forecasts at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday, April 24th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Despite the economy’s improving prospects, growth of 0.3 percent is still slower than other developed economies and below past rates, and officials fret it is unlikely to pick up fast in the years ahead.

Habeck has repeatedly stressed solutions are needed for deep-rooted problems facing Germany, from an ageing population to labour shortages and a transition towards greener industries that is moving too slowly.

“Germany has fallen behind other countries in terms of competitiveness,” he said. “We still have a lot to do — we have to roll up our sleeves.”

Already facing turbulence from pandemic-related supply chain woes, the German economy’s problems deepened dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed supplies of gas, hitting the country’s crucial manufacturers hard.

While the energy shock has faded, continued weakness in trading partners such as China, widespread strikes in recent months and higher eurozone interest rates have all prolonged the pain.

The European Central Bank has signalled it could start cutting borrowing costs in June, which would boost the eurozone.

But Habeck stressed that care was still needed as, despite the expectations of imminent easing, “tight monetary policy has not yet been lifted.”

In addition, disagreements in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party ruling coalition are hindering efforts to reignite growth, critics say.

This week the pro-business FDP party, a coalition partner, faced an angry backlash from Scholz’s SPD when it presented a 12-point plan for an “economic turnaround”, including deep cuts to state benefits.

Christian Lindner, the fiscally hawkish FDP finance minister, welcomed signs of “stabilisation” in the economic forecasts but stressed that projected medium-term growth was “too low to sustainably finance our state”.

“There are no arguments for postponing the economic turnaround,” he added.