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ECONOMY

Germany’s pivotal chemicals industry gripped by crisis

Thomas Kadowsky imagined that he would keep working at the German industrial coatings plant where he had served as team leader for over 30 years until he retired.

Chemicals company Hamburg
The building and entrance of the chemicals manufacturer Allnex is seen in Hamburg, northern Germany. Photo: Florian CAZERES / AFP

So it came as a shock when he received a call in March informing him that the owner, the German group Allnex, was going to close the 90-year-old site, nestled in the middle of a red-brick housing estate in the northern port city of Hamburg.

“I was completely stunned,” Kadowsky, 58, told AFP. Kadowsky and 130 other people will lose their jobs with the closure of the plant next year.

The company has justified the move by the “recent changes in energy prices” — a surge that is crippling the German chemicals industry.

The closure is yet another example of the crisis gripping this vital sector of the German economy, which slipped into a recession at the start of the year. GDP figures for the second quarter will be released on Friday.

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‘House on fire’

“The house is on fire”, said Markus Steilemann, president of the VCI chemicals industry lobbying group which represents 1,900 companies in Germany.

The sector in Germany has 466,000 employees and accounts for five percent of GDP, with existential importance for other sectors that it supplies with intermediate goods.

But for several months now, bad news has been piling up.

The sector’s sales plunged by 11.5 percent in the first half of the year, and a 14-percent drop is expected for 2023 as a whole.

Small and medium-sized companies, which account for 92 percent of companies in the industry, are also downsizing. In May, the number of employees in the sector fell by 0.8 percent year-on-year.

In February, the giant BASF announced that it was slashing 3,300 jobs, with the closure of several units at its historic site in the western city of Ludwigshafen.

A clutch of factors are chipping away at the success story with its roots in post-war West Germany’s economic miracle.

Employee at the Allnex plant in Hamburg.

Employee at the Allnex plant in Hamburg. Photo: Florian Cazeres / AFP

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and throttling of gas exports sent energy costs soaring in Europe’s top economy, compounded by the country’s phase-out of nuclear power.

Although they have fallen since their peak in August 2022, they are still five times higher than in the United States and between two and three times higher than in China, according to the VCI.

Investment in the industry in Germany fell by 24 percent last year and a quarter of German companies have considered outsourcing at least part of their production.

READ ALSO: Why people in Germany are being advised to switch energy suppliers

‘Defend and preserve’

In Hamburg, the flags of the IG BCE trade union are flying in front of the site.

“The decision (to close) makes no sense, the plant is profitable,” works council chairman Christian Wolf told AFP.

Despite local tensions, however, unions and companies are in agreement in calling for an energy price cap to save the sector.

In May, Economy Minister Robert Habeck of the ecologist Greens unveiled a proposal allowing electricity prices to be frozen until 2030 for the most energy-intensive industries, while Germany completes its transition to renewable energy.

But his counterpart at the finance ministry, Christian Lindner of the pro-business Free Democrats, is vehemently opposed for the time being due to budgetary concerns.

Hence some experts are calling for these industries, which will never be competitive on their own in Germany, to be shed and to concentrate on less energy-intensive sectors of the future.

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) in Berlin.

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) in Berlin. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Kay Nietfeld

“The main goal of both industry and the unions is to defend and preserve, not to change and innovate,” said Moritz Schularick, president of the Kiel Institute of Economics.

Without chemicals, however, the economy would lose a “highly productive sector, which for years has been the driving force behind industry as a whole”, counters Timo Wollmershäuser.

READ ALSO: Germany looks to extend energy price cap until April 2024

He noted this was especially true as the industry has boasted highly skilled, well-paid jobs with attractive benefits.

“I’ll never find a job like this that pays so well and has such good conditions,” Torben Boldt, 26, a mechanic at the Hamburg plant, told AFP, insisting that he will “fight” to keep his job.

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ECONOMY

‘Turning point’: Is Germany’s ailing economy on the road to recovery?

The German government slightly increased its 2024 growth forecast Wednesday, saying there were signs Europe's beleaguered top economy was at a "turning point" after battling through a period of weakness.

'Turning point': Is Germany's ailing economy on the road to recovery?

Output is expected to expand 0.3 percent this year, the economy ministry said, up from a prediction of 0.2 percent in February.

The slightly rosier picture comes after improvements in key indicators — from factory output to business activity — boosted hopes a recovery may be getting under way.

The German economy shrank slightly last year, hit by soaring inflation, a manufacturing slowdown and weakness in trading partners, and has acted as a major drag on the 20-nation eurozone.

But releasing its latest projections, the economy ministry said in a statement there were growing indications of a “turning point”.

“Signs of an economic upturn have increased significantly, especially in recent weeks,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.

The ministry also cut its forecast for inflation this year to 2.4 percent, from a previous prediction of 2.8 percent, and sees the figure falling below two percent next year.

READ ALSO: Can Germany revive its struggling economy?

“The fall in inflation will lead to consumer demand — people have more money in their wallets again, and will spend this money,” said Habeck.

“So purchasing power is increasing, real wages are rising and this will contribute to a domestic economic recovery.”

Energy prices — which surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had also fallen and supply chain woes had eased, he added.

Several months ago there had been expectations of a strong rebound in 2024, with forecasts of growth above one percent, but these were dialled back at the start of the year as the economy continued to languish.

‘Germany has fallen behind’

But improving signs have fuelled hopes the lumbering economy — while not about to break into a sprint — may at least be getting back on its feet.

On Wednesday a closely-watched survey from the Ifo institute showed business sentiment rising for a third consecutive month in April, and more strongly than expected.

A key purchasing managers’ index survey this week showed that business activity in Germany had picked up.

And last week the central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast the economy would expand slightly in the first quarter, dodging a recession, after earlier predicting a contraction.

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) presents the latest economic forecasts at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday, April 24th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Despite the economy’s improving prospects, growth of 0.3 percent is still slower than other developed economies and below past rates, and officials fret it is unlikely to pick up fast in the years ahead.

Habeck has repeatedly stressed solutions are needed for deep-rooted problems facing Germany, from an ageing population to labour shortages and a transition towards greener industries that is moving too slowly.

“Germany has fallen behind other countries in terms of competitiveness,” he said. “We still have a lot to do — we have to roll up our sleeves.”

READ ALSO: Which German companies are planning to cut jobs?

Already facing turbulence from pandemic-related supply chain woes, the German economy’s problems deepened dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed supplies of gas, hitting the country’s crucial manufacturers hard.

While the energy shock has faded, continued weakness in trading partners such as China, widespread strikes in recent months and higher eurozone interest rates have all prolonged the pain.

The European Central Bank has signalled it could start cutting borrowing costs in June, which would boost the eurozone.

But Habeck stressed that care was still needed as, despite the expectations of imminent easing, “tight monetary policy has not yet been lifted.”

In addition, disagreements in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party ruling coalition are hindering efforts to reignite growth, critics say.

This week the pro-business FDP party, a coalition partner, faced an angry backlash from Scholz’s SPD when it presented a 12-point plan for an “economic turnaround”, including deep cuts to state benefits.

Christian Lindner, the fiscally hawkish FDP finance minister, welcomed signs of “stabilisation” in the economic forecasts but stressed that projected medium-term growth was “too low to sustainably finance our state”.

“There are no arguments for postponing the economic turnaround,” he added.

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