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WEATHER

Spain braces for first heatwave of the summer with 43C forecast

The first 'ola de calor' of the summer is set to bring scorching temperatures to much of Spain this weekend that may last into next week.

Published: 22 June 2023 16:12 CEST
Spain braces for first heatwave of the summer with 43C forecast
A group of people on a horse-drawn carriage protect themselves from the sun with an umbrella in Seville. Photo: CRISTINA QUICLER/AFP.

Spain is expecting its first heatwave of the summer as the arrival of a mass of hot air from Africa could send temperatures above 40C over the weekend.

The scorching temperatures, which are more usual in late-July or early-August, are arriving earlier than usual in the year and will be exacerbated by a lack of wind in certain parts of the peninsula. High levels of humidity will cause so-called ‘tropical nights’ in many parts of the country where the mercury will not fall below 20C overnight.

READ ALSO: Where are the hottest places in Spain?

In some southern cities, such as Seville and Cádiz, overnight temperatures could be a sweltering 25C.

Temperatures on Thursday will top 30C across many parts of the country, but the highest will be in the southeast of the country, particularly in the Guadalquivir valley area and inland Murcia where temperatures will hit 35C.

On Friday, the mercury will continue to rise and the highs could be close to reaching 40C across the south, and over the weekend temperature could yet climb higher. There will be temperatures around 30C in the north, and 35C in inland Spain.

AEMET forecast graphics, seen below, show how the heatwave will be particularly clustered in the southwest of the country.

On Saturday and Sunday, the most intense heat is expected in the southwest of the peninsula, especially in the Guadalquivir valley. On Saturday, Córdoba and Seville could reach 41C and on Sunday 42C and 43C respectively.

Other cities in the southwest, such as Badajoz, also seem set to exceed 40C over the weekend, and similarly scorching temperatures are forecast across many areas of Andalusia, in the west of Castilla-La Mancha, as well as in the Madrid region.

Temperatures will surpass 35C in much of inland Spain, and be above 30C in the northern half of the country with 30C expected in Bilbao on Saturday.

The heat will be more bearable in the Canary Islands, where maximums temperatures are not expected to reach 30C. The Balearics are forecast to see temperatures in the low-30s throughout the weekend.

Forecasts from Spain’s state meteorological agency AEMET predict that the heatwave is here to stay and will last until at least the first days of next week, possibly longer. On Monday, the 26th, temperatures of 43C could be seen again in the southwest of the country.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, AEMET forecasts that temperatures will have dropped to a more comfortable 22 or 23C in northern Spain, but the high temperatures will remain in southern Spain. On Wednesday, Cordoba is set for highs of 44C, and temperatures will hover in the high-30s and low-40s across Andalusia.

The heatwave follows weeks of turbulent weather in Spain, with flash flooding and wildfires across differing parts of the country, as well as record temperatures in April.

Officially speaking, for scorching weather to be classified as a heatwave, the period of extreme heat must last at least three days and temperatures must exceed seasonal thresholds by 10 percent.

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WEATHER

Will this summer in Spain be as hot as the previous two?

2023 was the world’s hottest summer on record, with many countries including Spain experiencing scorching temperatures. What are meteorologists forecasting for summer 2024?

Published: 16 May 2024 11:05 CEST
Updated: 18 May 2024 07:44 CEST
Will this summer in Spain be as hot as the previous two?

2023 was in fact the second-hottest summer Spain had ever experienced – the hottest being just one year earlier in 2022.

During that year, 11,300 people died in Spain alone due to the abnormally high temperatures, marine life perished in the warming seas and even train tracks warped and became deformed.

All eyes are looking toward this summer to see what will happen and if it will be as roasting as the previous two. 

READ ALSO:

According to the climate service Copernicus-EU, above-normal temperatures are predicted across southern Europe this summer.

And in Spain, there is a 50-70 percent chance that this summer will be one of the hottest 20 percent on record, and it will properly begin in June.

According to Spain’s State Meteorological Agency AEMET, we have already seen an abnormal rise this May.

Its quarterly prediction, which will take us up to the end of July (typically the hottest part of the summer here in Spain), states that it will almost certainly be warmer than usual on the Mediterranean side of the country, as well as the Balearic and Canary Islands.

Copernicus agrees with these predictions and has indicated that it’s very likely to be hotter than normal in certain areas of the country. It particularly singled out the Valencia region, Murcia (except the south), northern Almería and Granada, Ibiza and Formentera and the western Canary Islands.

It’s getting more and more difficult to know exactly what ‘above normal’ temperatures are, considering what Spain has experienced the last few years, but the reference period that many experts are basing their predictions on is from 1991-2020.

When it comes to rainfall, Copernicus has forecast that the “most likely scenario is a summer with less rain” than usual.

AEMET agreed with the prediction, stating on its X account that “most likely rainfall will be less throughout the country than what is already normally scarce in the summer season”.

This is bad news for many parts of Spain, such as Catalonia, Andalusia and the Canary Islands, which have already been experiencing an ongoing drought over the past two years.

Luckily, spring rains have managed to fill reservoirs just enough to see us through the summer at this point, but more rain will definitely be needed come autumn.

READ ALSO: Will drought restrictions affect summer holidays in Spain?

While scientists agree the sizzling temperatures experienced over the past few summers are down to climate change, last year in 2023, the cyclical phenomenon known as El Niño also had a part to play in global weather patterns.

When the seas become cooler on average and it has a cooling effect on the planet, this is partly down to the effect of La Niña.

This year is supposed to be dominated by La Niña and according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the US, La Niña has a 49 percent chance of developing between June and August and a 69 percent chance between July and September.

But this doesn’t necessarily mean that this summer will be cooler than last year.

As of May 16th 2024, we’re undergoing a neutral period known as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Despite the global cooling effect of La Niña in 2022, it was still the planet’s sixth hottest year and the hottest in Spain ever recorded.

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