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Lower energy prices take air out of Danish inflation

Inflation continued to fall in Denmark in January with lower energy prices a primary factor.

Lower energy prices take air out of Danish inflation
Inflation has eased in recent months but food prices remain well above 2020 levels, seen in this file photo. Photo: Mads Claus Rasmussen/Ritzau Scanpix

A latest inflation index which takes into account EU consumer prices was released by national agency Statistics Denmark on Tuesday.

The index shows a fall in the inflation level from 9.6 percent in December to 8.4 percent in January.

Although inflation is falling, it remains at a high level seen in a historical context.

Meanwhile, the measure of “core inflation” or kerneinflation continues to be a warning light for Danish consumers.

Core inflation is the inflation of prices excluding food and energy prices and is sometimes used by economists as a measure of how entrenched inflation has become in other areas of the economy. It fell marginally from 7.4 percent in December to 7.3 percent in January.

Because core inflation is steady while the overall, energy-driven inflation rate has started declining, end prices for consumers could remain high in the shorter term, even if energy bills are lower than they were in 2022.

READ ALSO: Why prices in Denmark could still increase despite falling inflation

“High core inflation shows that a broad cross section of Danish consumption is affected by price increases,” private economist with Arbejdernes Landsbank, Brian Friis Helmer, told news wire Ritzau in a comment.

Overall inflation for the EU was 10 percent in January according to the latest data, which confirm preliminary figures released earlier this month.

The EU figure is also slightly down month-on-month.

Inflation should continue to fall in coming months, Helmer predicted.

“Electricity and gas prices have fallen markedly since the crazy heights of late last summer and Danes’ budgets are therefore not as badly hit on that front,” he said.

“At the same time, global food and raw material prices and transport costs have fallen, and that can reduce the price burden on Danes,” he said.

“Inflation is a measure of the prices today compared to a year ago. Therefore, the steep price increases from last year will begin to fall away from inflation calculations as we progress through the year,” he also said.

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ECONOMY

Explained: Why Denmark’s economy is looking in such extremely good shape

Denmark's economy is growing faster than the government expected, inflation is falling faster, and employment is holding up better. We explain why the new economic forecast shows Denmark has achieved the softest of soft landings.

Explained: Why Denmark's economy is looking in such extremely good shape

 “When I stood here a year ago and presented my first financial statement, it was with a message that the Danish economy was heading for a soft landing. We have since been strengthened in that assessment,” Stephanie Lose, Denmark’s economy minister, said at a press conference announcing the government’s Økonomisk Redegørelse, or financial statement, for May. 

In the press statement, she said, “optimism is returning to the Danish economy”, with the economy likely to improve further in the coming year.

“We have carried out reforms that make Denmark richer and help to secure the necessary workforce for Danish companies,” she said. 

How has the government changed its growth forecasts? 

The government has increased its expectation for Denmark’s growth rate since its last statement in December, with it now expecting 2.7 percent growth in 2024, up from the1.4 percent it expected for the year in December. 

It has also upgraded its expectations for 2025, predicting growth of 1.8 percent compared to the 1 percent it expected back in December. 

Lose said that the pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk, which is expanding rapidly as a result of the success of its weight-loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy, had driven much of Denmark’s recent growth, with the reopening of Denmark’s gas field, the Tyra field, would start to contribute to growth soon.

“In the past two years, the pharmaceutical industry in particular has driven growth in the Danish economy, while there has been stagnation or decline in large parts of the rest of the economy,” she said. “In the coming years, other industries again look set to contribute to growth. Added to this is the reopening of the Tyra field in the North Sea, which also contributes to growth in GDP.” 

What does the government expect to happen to inflation? 

Denmark’s inflation rate fell rapidly from a peak of over 10 percent in October 2022 to below 2 percent in September 2023, where it has stayed ever since. But Lose said she expected the rate to edge up over the coming years. 

“Inflation has fallen quickly and faster than expected,” Lose said. “In the new forecast, we expect inflation to rise in the coming months, as the prices of services and energy pull in the direction of slightly higher inflation.” 

What does the government expect to happen to employment? 

Thanks mainly to Novo Nordisk increasing staffing to manage the success of its new drugs, and the bounce back from the pandemic, employment has also held up better than expected.

Employment soared by some 160,000 people between 2021 and 2023, and the government now expects the number of employed people to grow by a further 13,000 in 2024 but to then fall by 18,000 in 2025. 

“Employment has long been at a sky-high level, so it is estimated that we will see some adjustment. But we do not expect an extensive setback, because the Danish economy stands on a rock-solid foundation,” Lose said.

What does the government expect to happen to housing prices? 

The government has significantly upgraded its expectations of what will happen to the price of domestic property this year. It now expects prices to increase by an average of 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3 percent in 2025, a rise of two percentage points on the 1.2 percent rise for 2024 it expected when it made its last forecast in December. 

This is due to the continued strong labour market, which has seen rising incomes and wage increases in Denmark as a result of new collective agreements, at the same time as Denmarks Nationalbank is expected to cut interest rates. 

This rise follows two consecutive years of falling real house prices in 2022 and 2023. 

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