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Scholz’s Social Democrats suffer blow with Berlin election loss

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats suffered a heavy setback in a regional election in Berlin on Sunday, falling behind the opposition conservatives in the capital for the first time in over two decades.

Franziska Giffey (SPD), mayor of Berlin and top candidate of the Berlin SPD, and Raed Saleh, State Chair of the SPD Berlin and Chair of the SPD parliamentary group in the Berlin House of Representatives, speak to party members at the SPD election party.
Franziska Giffey (SPD), mayor of Berlin and top candidate of the Berlin SPD, and Raed Saleh, State Chair of the SPD Berlin and Chair of the SPD parliamentary group in the Berlin House of Representatives, speak to party members at the SPD election party. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Bernd von Jutrczenka

While the Berlin vote turned on local issues, the disappointing loss comes as Scholz faces widespread criticism for his hesitant military support for Ukraine in the wake of the Russian invasion last year.

In a court-ordered rerun of the election in 2021, the chancellor’s party slipped to their worst postwar result in the capital, where they have held the mayor’s office since 2001.

The Social Democrats received around 18 percent of the vote, according to the first estimates from public broadcasters ARD and ZDF, down from 21.4 percent in 2021.

The conservative CDU, in opposition in the city and in the federal parliament, surged to around 28 percent, up from 18 percent.

READ ALSO: How the German government will be tested in 2023 by four elections

Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party’s top candidate Kai Wegner (C) celebrates holding flowers after the first exit poll results for the Berlin state’s repeat elections at the State parliament in Berlin. Photo: Odd ANDERSEN/AFP

Berlin, one of the country’s 16 federal states, was ordered by courts to return to the ballot boxes after the 2021 election was found not to meet basic democratic standards amid widespread voting issues.

The outcome of the rerun puts a question mark over the continuation of the coalition led by the Social Democrats and incumbent Mayor Franziska Giffey.

Her coalition partners struggled to make progress, with the Greens also falling slightly to around 18 percent of the vote, while the Linke party recorded around 13 percent.

Election issues

Giffey and the Social Democrats seem to have been penalised by voters following violent scenes in the capital over the New Year, with revellers
targeting the emergency services with fireworks in neighbourhoods with a large immigrant population.

The conservative opposition accused Berlin’s administration of failing to control the situation and sparked a debate over integration.

The election was also marked by discontent over rising rental prices in the capital and disputes over transport policy.

The result of the elections reflect the Social Democrats’ struggles nationally, as Scholz’s government — in power for just over a year —
wrestles with inflation and the fallout of the war in Ukraine.

The difficulties for Scholz’s coalition with the Greens and the liberal FDP have been to the benefit of opposition parties.

Along with the conservative CDU, the far-right AfD increased its share of the vote to around nine percent in Sunday’s rerun, according to the exit polls.

PODCAST: Has a decade of the AfD changed Germany, and why is Berlin repeating elections?

Marathon vote

The rerun in Berlin is only the second time in German postwar history that a state election has been declared invalid, after irregularities were reported in a vote in Hamburg in 1991.

The organisation of the 2021 election on the same day as a national vote, a local housing referendum and the Berlin marathon had led to widespread logistical problems.

Ballot papers got stuck in traffic as roads were closed for the race, with lines forming outside polling stations struggling to process votes.

Federal election officials found voting irregularities in Berlin districts equivalent to about half the city.

Sunday’s election took place under the watchful gaze of international election observers from the Council of Europe, invited in by the city itself to restore trust after the 2021 fiasco.

Berlin also called up an army of 42,000 election helpers – 8,000 more than last time around – and gave polling stations extra ballots to avoid shortages.

The German parliament has also resolved for national elections to be partly repeated in Berlin, with the date of that vote yet to be set.

By Sebastien ASH

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CLIMATE CRISIS

INTERVIEW: ‘Failed climate policies are fuelling far-right politics in Germany’

Alt-right political parties tend to oppose environmental protections, but is there a connection between their political success and climate policy failures? Author and thought-leader Sandrine Dixson-Declève explains why Germany may be having a ‘1930s moment’, and why the next elections are gravely important.

INTERVIEW: 'Failed climate policies are fuelling far-right politics in Germany'

It’s understood that far-right and populist political parties tend to either downplay the realities of climate change, or block progressive policies that would try to mitigate its impacts. But the link between failed climate policies and the recent rise of populist parties is rarely addressed.

Speaking as a panellist at the Green Tech Festival in Berlin on Thursday, climate policy thought-leader Sandrine Dixson-Declève voiced concern that poor climate and economic policies are fuelling the popularity of far-right politics in Germany and across Europe. 

Co-president of the Club of Rome, Dixson-Declève works to promote policies that she believes would help secure a sustainable future for humanity. Such policies are laid out in the book Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity, that she co-authored.

The Local spoke with Sandrine Dixson-Declève about Germany’s climate policy failures, and why she thinks the upcoming European elections are of the utmost importance.

The shortcomings of Germany’s ‘Energiewende’ had serious political consequences

Having been a contributor and advisor to Germany’s Energiewende (energy transition), Dixson-Declève has followed German politics and environmental policy for years.

“I believe that one of the biggest mistakes was that we politicised energy policy in Germany from the outset,” she told The Local, adding, “Merkel actually accepted the big green push to pull out of nuclear, which actually created a big mess.”

Germany’s anti-nuclear energy movement dates back to the 19070s, and led to the foundation of the Green party. Under Merkel’s leadership, a plan was adopted to phase out nuclear power with the last three nuclear power plants taken offline in 2023.

But losing nuclear power as an energy source came with some serious consequences.

“The first big mess was the continued burning of coal,” Dixson-Declève explained. “The second big mess was Nord Stream 2, and that led to the invasion of Ukraine…because it gave Putin power.”

Still, she wouldn’t suggest that Germany try to revive its nuclear power now: “I believe that Germany needs to really think through the next steps.”

READ ALSO: ‘Nuclear power is a dead horse in Germany’: Scholz rejects reopening plants 

Protestors run past riot police

A wave of protestors break through police lines at Lützerath. Open pit coal mining in west Germany destroyed most of the Hambach Forest, as well as dozens of villages such as Lützerath. At both sites massive citizen protests were met with brutal police evictions. Photo by Paul Krantz.

Energy efficiency is the missing piece to Germany’s climate plans

How to build up renewable energy infrastructure is at the centre of most discourse around curbing fossil fuel use, but using the energy we have more efficiently arguably deserves more immediate attention.

“The other missing link, which no one talks about, is energy efficiency,” Dixson-Declève said. “Actually the best energy is the energy you don’t use. That is unsexy, and that is why energy efficiency hasn’t been taken up the way it should have been since 2010.”

While working on climate and energy plans in 2010, she says she came across a study that said Europe could wean itself off of Russian gas just by putting energy efficiency requirements in place for buildings.

In 2022 the European Commission finally began to take this idea seriously when Germany and Europe suddenly needed to replace Russian gas imports, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Another massive energy saver that has been politicised for all the wrong reasons in Germany is heat pumps.

According to Eurostat data, about half of all energy consumed in the EU is used for heating and cooling, and most of that energy comes from fossil fuels. Heat pumps are significantly more efficient than boilers and allow for greater use of renewable energy sources.

But when Economy Minister Robert Habeck led an effort to promote heat pumps by banning new fossil-powered heating systems, conservative and far-right parties jumped on the issue as if it were an attack on personal freedoms. 

“As environmentalists, we need to get better at translating the environmental narrative into something that resonates with people,” said Dixson-Declève. 

READ ALSO: Reader question – How do I install a heat pump in my German property?

A unified coalition government that is serious about climate protections might have better communicated to people that heat pumps would ultimately save them money: “They should have been enabled in a way that truly assisted people in getting the heat that they needed in an affordable way at the right time.”

‘I am very scared we are in a 1930s moment’

Whereas the coalition government has largely failed to communicate to voters how environmental policies will improve their lives and save them money, conservative and far-right parties have done extremely well at hijacking the narrative. 

The European People’s Party (EPP – the EU’s largest conservative party), for example, is particularly adept at using citizens’ economic concerns to block environmental policies.

Having analysed the EPP’s manifestos, Dixson-Declève notes that they acknowledge the need to mitigate climate change, but say that protections cannot cost. 

“I think the EPP has done a very good job both of putting in fear of the greens, [as if] they’re only going to think about green climate policies and not about social policies [whereas] we’re here to think about you.”

Sandrine Dixson-Declève with Earth for All

Sandrine Dixson-Declève holds up a copy of the book ‘Earth for All’ alongside two of the book’s co-authors. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Wolfgang Kumm

Germany’s far-right parties tend to use similar messaging to try and convince voters that they will better improve the lives of citizens than the current coalition parties have. 

READ ALSO: Why are the far-right AfD doing so well in German polls?

Nearly 100 years ago, the National Socialist (Nazi) party succeeded in drumming up major support along similar lines.

Speaking as a panellist at Berlin’s Green Tech Festival, when asked how she thought European politicians were doing on climate issues, Dixson-Declève described them as deer in the headlights, adding, “I am very scared we are in a 1930s moment”.

“I think that in the 1930s we didn’t see Hitler coming, we didn’t read the tea leaves,” she told The Local, adding that in the present moment, “people are suffering. When people suffer, they look to anything, any message that’s going to make them feel like that next leader is going to help them.” 

She also suggests that we can’t count on the youth vote to save us, citing Argentina and Portugal as two places where young voters have actually pushed politics to the right recently.

READ ALSO: A fight for the youth vote: Are German politicians social media savvy enough?

“This is a tipping moment politically, and if we’re not careful, it could explode in our faces,” said Dixson-Declève. “We need to get as many people to vote this year [as possible]. It’s an absolutely fundamental vote, alongside the United States, in order to make sure that we don’t slide to the right across Europe.”

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