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‘Heat February’ likely to follow Germany’s warmest January on record so far

After seeing the hottest January so far since records began, meteorologists in Germany are now predicting a warmer-than-usual February, which could bring about problems for winter sports resorts.

Published: 24 January 2023 17:04 CET

The cable car in the ski resort in the Harz Mountains in Lower Saxony above a meadow where there is no snow.

The cable car in the ski resort in the Harz Mountains in Lower Saxony above a meadow where there is no snow. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Swen Pförtner

Germany is getting hotter. Every decade since the sixties has been warmer than the previous one and the pace is continuing to increase, the German Weather Service (DWD) said in its final climate assessment for the past year released on Monday.

“We are now experiencing hot spells and intensities that we would actually not have expected from climate models for a few decades,” said Andreas Becker, head of the DWD’s climate monitoring department.

READ ALSO: More floods, droughts and heatwaves: How climate change will impact Germany

“Since the year 1881, we now have an increase in the annual mean temperature in Germany of 1.7 C,” Becker said. He added that this increase can only be explained by man-made climate change.

The first half of January – usually considered to be the height of winter – was warmer than ever before this year, at 8.2 C above average.

But while temperatures are expected to sink and bring some frost and snowfall later this week, meteorologist Dominik Jung from wetter.net, has said that there is no real prospect of a severe cold spell or a deep onset of winter. Meteorologist Alban Burster from wetter.com, meanwhile, said that he expects January to remain mainly foggy and wet.

Looking ahead to February, it seems likely that there will be no change in the warming trend. Meteorologist Jung said that he expects the second month of 2023 to be “almost a kind of ‘heat’ February” – at an average of two to three degrees warmer than the climate average.

Good news for some

For the winter sports season, the warm temperatures are “a disaster”, Jung said.

READ ALSO: How heatwaves in Germany have led to thousands of deaths

The meagre snowfall is bad news for sports enthusiasts and ski lift operators, many of which have had to resort to using artificial snow – at a significant cost.

However, for those hoping to save on their home heating bills, the warm winter months, for now, are good news.

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Record heat deaths and floods: How Germany is being hit by climate change

In 2023, more days of extremely high temperatures were recorded than at any time since records began, the European climate change service Copernicus and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) wrote in a joint report published on Monday.

The records go back to 1940 and sometimes even further.

“2023 has been a complex and multifaceted year in terms of climate hazards in Europe,” said Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Director Carlo Buontempo. “We have witnessed widespread flooding, but also extreme forest fires with high temperatures and severe droughts.”

These events have put a strain on natural ecosystems, and have also challenged agriculture, water management and public health.

According to the report, around 1.6 million people were affected by floods last year, and more than half a million people were affected by storms. The weather- and climate-related damage is estimated at well over 10 billion euros. “Unfortunately, these numbers are unlikely to decrease in the near future,” Buontempo said, referring to ongoing human-caused climate change.

Heat turns deadly, even in Germany

Averaged across Europe, 11 months of above-average warmth were recorded last year, with September being the warmest since records began in 1940.

A record number of days with so-called extreme heat stress, i.e. perceived temperatures of over 46C, was also registered.

As a result of higher temperatures, the number of heat-related deaths has risen by an average of 30 percent over the past 20 years.

According to the Robert Koch Institute, at least 3,100 deaths in Germany were linked to heat in the first nine months of 2023.

“In some cases, for example heat stroke, heat exposure leads directly to death, while in most cases it is the combination of heat exposure and pre-existing conditions that leads to death,” RKI explained in a statement, adding that women tend to be affected more than men due to higher proportion of women in older age groups.

In Germany temperatures above 30C are considered a heatwave. As weather patterns change due to human-caused climate change, heat waves have increased in number and length.

READ ALSO: How German cities are adapting to rising temperatures

Historically Germany hasn’t faced so many severe heatwaves each year, and central air conditioning is not commonly found in the country. In cities across the Bundesrepublik, heat plans are being drafted and refined to try and prepare for further extreme heat events in the near future.

Delivery van stuck in flood

A delivery van stranded in flood water during a storm surge near the fish market in Hamburg last winter. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Bodo Marks

Warming oceans and mountains and more rain

On average, the seas around Europe’s coasts were warmer than at any time since at least 1980.

READ ALSO: Colder winters and refugees – How changing ocean currents could impact Germany

It was also much too warm on the glaciers in 2023. “After the record ice loss in 2022, it was another exceptional year of loss in the Alps,” Copernicus and WMO wrote. In these two years, the glaciers in the Alps lost around 10 percent of their volume.

Interestingly, the excess meltwater may be boosting hydroelectricity production in the short term. According to the report, conditions for the production of green electricity in 2023 were very favourable, with its share of the total electricity mix at 43 percent, the highest seen so far.

Overall, seven percent more rain fell last year than average. It was one of the wettest years on record, the report said.

In one third of the river network in Europe, water volumes have been recorded that exceeded the flood threshold. There were severe floods in Italy and Greece, among other places, and parts of northern Germany were affected at the end of the year.

Hamburg and the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein were among regions hardest hit by floods in Germany last year. Northern sections of the Elbe river rose high enough to submerge Hamburg’s fish market several times among other places.

READ ALSO: Germany hit by floods as October heat turns into icy spell

2024 likely to continue breaking heat records

The recent report by Copernicus and the World Meteorological Organization is in agreement with a UN report published last month, which noted that last year came at the end of “the warmest 10-year period on record” according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

“There is a high probability that 2024 will again break the record of 2023”, WMO climate monitoring chief Omar Baddour said, according to Science Alert.

Another year of record breaking high temperatures means Germany can likely expect more and longer heatwaves in the late spring, summer and early autumn seasons. Higher average temperatures are also correlated with an increase in extreme weather events like extreme storms and floods in parts of the country.

In drier parts of Europe it means an increase in droughts and wildfires.

With reporting by DPA.

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