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GERMANY AND UKRAINE

Germany faces backlash over refusal to give Ukraine tanks

Germany faced a strong backlash from allies on Saturday over its refusal to supply Ukraine with its vaunted Leopard tanks to boost its fighting capacity in the nearly year-long war with Russia.

Published: 21 January 2023 13:48 CET

Boris Pistorius (SPD), German Defence Minister, makes a statement at the Ukraine conference at the US Ramstein airbase. Photo: Picture Alliance/dpa | Hannes P Albert

On Friday, some 50 nations agreed to provide Kyiv with billions of dollars’ worth of military hardware, including ample armoured vehicles and munitions needed to push back Russian forces.

But German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius told reporters on the sidelines of the event at the US Ramstein Air Base that despite heightened expectations, “We still cannot say when a decision will be taken, and what the decision will be, when it comes to the Leopard tank.”

Ukraine on Saturday denounced the “global indecision” of its allies on providing heavy-duty modern tanks, saying “today’s indecision is killing more of our people.”

“Every day of delay is the death of Ukrainians. Think faster,” presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted.

Afterword to global indecision…
You'll help Ukraine with the necessary weapons anyway and realize that there is no other option to end the war except the defeat of🇷🇺
But today's indecision is killing more of our people. Every day of delay is the death of Ukrainians. Think faster

— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) January 21, 2023

Several allies echoed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in saying the tanks were essential to Ukraine’s fight with its much larger neighbour.

In a joint statement — and a rare public criticism of Europe’s top power — the foreign ministers of the three Baltic states said they “call on Germany to provide Leopard tanks to Ukraine now.”

“This is needed to stop Russian aggression, help Ukraine and restore peace in Europe quickly. Germany as the leading European power has special responsibility in this regard,” said the statement, tweeted by Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics.

Germany has been hesitant to send the Leopards, or allow other nations to transfer them to Kyiv, with reports earlier in the week saying it would agree to do so only if the US provided its tanks as well.

Washington has said it could not provide its Abrams tanks to Ukraine, citing difficulties in training and maintenance.

US Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina who is currently visiting Kyiv, called on both sides to supply the machines.

“To the Germans: Send tanks to Ukraine because they need them. It is in your own national interest that (Russian President Vladimir) Putin loses in Ukraine.”

“To the (US President Joe) Biden Administration: Send American tanks so that others will follow our lead,” he said.

The pleas came as the Russian army said its troops had launched an offensive in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, where fighting intensified this week after several months of an almost frozen front.

In its daily report on Saturday, Moscow’s forces said they carried out “offensive operations” in the region and claimed to have “taken more advantageous lines and positions”.

Funeral

In Kyiv on Saturday, Zelensky attended the funeral of his interior minister and other officials who were killed in a helicopter crash outside the capital on Wednesday.

Denys Monastyrsky, who as interior minister was one of Zelensky’s top aides, became the highest-ranking Ukrainian official to die in the war that Russia launched on February 24th, 2022.

The cause of the helicopter crash that killed him and 13 others when the chopper crashed near a kindergarten, was still under investigation.

US officials said Ukraine still faces an uphill battle against Russian forces, who still occupy one-fifth of the country, 11 months after invading.

But they spoke of a possible campaign in the coming weeks by Ukraine to retake parts of its land.

US Joint Chiefs Chairman General Mark Milley pointed to the substantial amount of equipment — much of it armoured vehicles and artillery — that Ukraine was being pledged at Ramstein, as well as the large-scale training of its forces by allies.

“I do think it’s very possible for the Ukrainians to run a significant tactical or even operational-level offensive operation to liberate as much Ukrainian territory as possible,” Milley said.

But the Kremlin warned on Friday that Western tanks will make little difference on the battlefield.

“One should not exaggerate the importance of such supplies in terms of the ability to change something,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

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OPINION: Germany's timid strategy risks both Ukraine’s defeat and more war in Europe

Two years ago, just before Russia started firing its missiles into Kyiv itself, nearly three quarters of Germans surveyed in one poll opposed sending weapons to Ukraine. Now, in 2024 – not only has public opinion shifted, but Germany is now Ukraine’s second-largest donor of military support in absolute terms.

Yet, it’s still not enough.

EXPLAINED: Are Germans really that pacifist anymore?

That’s because Chancellor Olaf Scholz has regularly had to be dragged into providing key support for Ukraine, preventing Kyiv from getting decisive help quickly – when it needs it. Scholz has yet to explicitly say that Ukraine should win the war with Russia. He has cautioned Germany about the danger of a Russian victory – but this is different from saying Ukraine should win.

That’s left Berlin-based security experts to reason that the outcome Scholz prefers is a stalemate – where neither side wins and some negotiated settlement theoretically de-escalates tensions with Russia while forcing Ukraine to accept territorial losses.

But stalemate with Russia never lasts. The Minsk Agreement was supposed to freeze the Russo-Ukrainian War that’s been going on in Crimea and the Russia-occupied territories in eastern Ukraine since 2014 in place. But Russia violated it by trying to invade the entire country. The history of Russia’s aggression against its neighbours, whether Ukraine since 2014, Georgia in 2008, or Moldova – shows us that Putin’s Russia has an insatiable imperialist drive to expand its borders through force.

FILE PHOTO: Soldiers sit on a tank at a training site where Ukrainian soldiers undergo maintenance training on Leopard 1A5 tanks at the German army Bundeswehr base. Photo; Fabrizio Bensch/Reuters/Ritzau Scanpix

What’s more is that Scholz’s dithering over the last two years has made Ukrainian defeat – rather than stalemate – a real possibility. Last year’s decision to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine was achieved only after concerted pressure from backbench parliamentarians and from the US. Although Scholz would finally relent and send them, it took months – robbing the Ukrainians of valuable time to make gains on the battlefield.

This year, the Chancellor continues to refuse to send Taurus cruise missiles – which would allow Ukraine to hit Russian supply lines that they’re not able to hit yet with the equipment they have. The debate has dragged on for months. Two parliamentary motions from the opposition CDU calling on Scholz to deliver Taurus have failed. Parliamentarians from his own coalition then drew up their own, but members of the Chancellor’s Social Democrats effectively sabotaged it by taking out any mention of the word “Taurus”.

Meanwhile, Iran is now preparing to send Russia long-range cruise missiles of its own – which the Ukrainians won’t have. As Ukraine runs dangerously low on ammunition, the Russians are outfiring the Ukrainians by a ratio of around 5-1. Still, despite two years to get its act together, European countries, including Germany, still haven’t made appreciable efforts to up their ammunition stocks.

In the meantime, a plurality of ordinary Germans surveyed in a recent Yougov poll think the government isn’t doing enough to ensure that Ukraine win, with 44 percent saying too little it being done, compared to 26 person who say the government is doing enough or too much.

ZEITENWENDE: How war in Ukraine has marked a historic shift in Germany

So if both the public and members of his own coalition want more done, why isn’t Scholz acting?

Scholz’ nervousness a problem

The Chancellor hasn’t answered this question directly, but security experts point to his nervousness that any additional weapon he sends could result in escalation by Russia – including by attacking Germany.

Yet escalation is already happening. No one expects Russia to be ordering long-range cruise missiles from Iran that it doesn’t intend to use – but Scholz still won’t deliver Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine to match the Russian arsenal.

This file picture from 2017 shows a Taurus long-range air-to-surface missile during a media day presentation in Pyeongtaek, South Korea

This file picture from 2017 shows a Taurus long-range air-to-surface missile during a media day presentation in Pyeongtaek, South Korea. Ukraine has requested similar weapons from Germany, but Germany has yet to deliver them. Photo: JUNG Yeon-Je / AFP

Furthermore, self-congratulation in Germany about finally hitting NATO’s defence spending target of two percent of GDP is likely to be short-lived if Kyiv falls. Putin could well be emboldened to test the NATO military alliance of which Germany is part by attacking an actual NATO member – something he’s not yet done militarily.

That would likely lead to Germany having to spend even more on defence. Already, some parliamentarians say the current special fund of €100 billion to modernise the German army simply won’t be enough.

PODCAST: Why Germany is getting ‘war ready’ and the growing citizenship application backlog

“We have to do more for Ukraine and we have to do more for our own security,” Anton Hofreiter, Chair of the Bundestag’s European Affairs Committee, told journalists at a press event this week at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).

“For all of this, we need a lot of money. So, we have to put at least €100 billion more into our army and ammunition. I think we should have a European fund of around €100 billion to buy – now – from all over the world, ammunition and weapons for Ukraine. And then I think we should have another €100 billion to make our infrastructure secure. I think that is really needed fast, because the Russian army is preparing to test NATO.”

.@ToniHofreiter, EU Committee Chair @Bundestag, suggests a 🇪🇺 €100bn fund "to buy #ammunition & #weapons for #Ukraine all over the world," €100bn to "make our #infrastructure secure" & 100bn more for 🇩🇪 defence – as Russia's will likely test @WeLoveNATO 2/8 pic.twitter.com/tipvxgNDuy

— Benjamin Tallis 🇺🇦 (@bctallis) February 21, 2024

Ultimately, as frontline Baltic state politicians have warned for years, Putin is emboldened by weakness and will push forward with his imperial ambitions until he is stopped. He doesn’t care about Scholz’s escalation fears. To him, such fear is weakness and an invitation to escalate. Perversely, German fears of escalation end up risking Russian escalation – the very situation Scholz seems so desperate to avoid by not giving Ukraine what it needs to win.

“Continuous western support to Ukraine until victory. This is the only language autocrats understand. They constantly calculate our response against potential gains,” says Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis. “If we won’t stop them in Ukraine, sooner or later, we will not escape a direct fight and we will pay a much higher price.”

Not too late to act

It’s not too late though. There is still time to stop Putin in Ukraine – but it will require western countries, including Germany, to take much more decisive measures – something some members of the Bundestag are already calling for.

“President Zelensky has made clear what Ukraine needs most – ammunition, ammunition, ammunition and long-range cruise missiles,” said Dr. Sebastian Schäfer, spokesperson for the Greens on the Bundestag’s Budget Committee and Deputy Chair of the Bundestag’s Committee for the Special Fund for the Bundeswehr – at the DGAP press event Monday.

“We need to do everything we can do to finally stop the Russian war machine. We must fully enforce the sanctions and frozen Russian assets in their entirety must serve the liberation and reconstruction of Ukraine,” he said.

"We must fully enforce the #sanctions and [seize] frozen Russian assets in their entirety to serve the *liberation* & reconstruction of #Ukraine. #MakeRussiaPay,”
Said @sebastian_es_ Budget Committee Spokesperson @GrueneBundestag.@OlenaHalushka @HopkoHanna 6/8 pic.twitter.com/JFZW3gT1Yx

— Benjamin Tallis 🇺🇦 (@bctallis) February 21, 2024

“Putin is constantly challenging us,” said Hildegard Bentele, Member of the European Parliament with the European People’s Party, at the DGAP press event. “I think we really need to show that we’re in crisis mode.”

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