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ANGELA MERKEL

What do Germans think of Merkel a year after her departure?

Angela Merkel left the German chancellery on December 8th, 2021 at the height of her global stature. Twelve months on, it is hard to find a more precipitous drop in popularity and prestige in modern European politics.

What do Germans think of Merkel a year after her departure?
Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel speaking at an event to mark the 77th anniversary of the Süddeutsche Zeitung in October 2022. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Sven Hoppe

The offices accorded to the former leader are in view of the Russian embassy, where since the Ukraine invasion in February Berliners regularly leave signs and flowers protesting the war.

Long called the world’s most powerful woman, Merkel these days has pulled back from the spotlight, working on her memoirs and enjoying the occasional television series, such as “The Crown”, which tells the story of Queen Elizabeth II’s turbulent decades on the throne.

But in many quarters the broad German support she once enjoyed as a staunch defender of Western liberal values has curdled.

“One year on, the world is in flames, Russia invaded Ukraine, gas and  petrol prices are through the roof and Germany fears the winter,” wrote Der Spiegel magazine’s Alexander Osang, a longtime Merkel confidant.

“Angela Merkel went from role model to culprit, from crisis-manager to crisis-causer.”

Invitation to Bucha

Germany’s first female chancellor has been accused of placating Russian President Vladimir Putin in the name of realpolitik, while deepening Germany’s energy dependence on Moscow — not least by backing the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project even after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.

READ ALSO: Merkel says no regrets over Germany’s Russia gas deals

Hedwig Richter, modern history professor at Munich’s Bundeswehr University, said Merkel‘s loss of standing had been “exceptional”, representing a generation of political failings.

“Amorality is not the same thing as realpolitik,” Richter told AFP.

“The governments of the last 16 years thought it was realistic to place values such as human rights and climate protection last in politics. But now reality is striking back.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has laid the blame at Merkel‘s feet, in particular for a decision at a 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest not to admit his country to the alliance.

In April, he offered her a barbed invitation to Bucha, the site of an alleged massacre of Ukrainian civilians, “to see what the policy of concessions to Russia has led to in 14 years”.

Looming energy shortages due to Russian retaliation for Western sanctions have also soured the mood against Merkel at home.

In the public debate, “Merkel was tied up with this war and certainly to blame for the missing gas”, said Nico Fried, who covered Merkel during all four of her terms, in Stern magazine.

“The question is what remains of Merkel after 16 years, whether her historical portrait is already fading before it was even really framed.”

‘Horribly neglected’

Just 23 percent of Germans would want Merkel back in power, according to a Civey institute poll in late November.

READ ALSO: ANALYSIS: Are Germans questioning Merkel’s legacy?

In this file photo taken on November 10, 2021 then outgoing German Chancellor Angela Merkel and then German Finance Minister and Vice-Chancellor Olaf Scholz attend a press conference to present the annual report of the German Council of Economic Experts (Wirtschaftsweise) in Berlin. (Photo by Kay Nietfeld / POOL / AFP)

Richter said Merkel had “great achievements” including allowing in more  than one million asylum seekers and standing as a beacon of “decency” and  “democratic duty” when strongmen like Putin and Donald Trump were on the march.

But she said two key miscalculations would cast a long shadow.

“Firstly, the inability of the (German) republic to defend itself. And because this is closely linked to the fossil-fuel dependence on Russia, it threw a spotlight on destruction of the planet,” she said.

“The Merkel governments horribly neglected both these issues.”

Merkel, 68, has mounted a tentative counter-offensive, arguing that she acted in good conscience given the facts on the ground at the time.

She said she tried to use Nord Stream 2 as a bargaining chip to ensure Putin respected the 2015 Minsk accords aimed at stopping the fighting in Ukraine.

Merkel told Fried she pledged to US President Joe Biden last year that if Russia invaded Ukraine, the pipeline deal would be scrapped — a threat her successor Olaf Scholz made good on days before the war began.

Osang noted the irony that “Putin of all people, whom she has known so well and long, with all his tricks, lies, bragging” had muddied her reputation.

One of Merkel‘s lessons from the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 that it was “economic, more than democratic, deprivation” that led to the communist system’s collapse.

Osang said this had coloured her approach to trade with China and energy deals with Russia.

She said Scholz’s billions in spending to help Germans facing high gas prices were now justified.

“Not everyone is in a position to freeze for Ukraine,” she said.

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ECONOMY

‘Turning point’: Is Germany’s ailing economy on the road to recovery?

The German government slightly increased its 2024 growth forecast Wednesday, saying there were signs Europe's beleaguered top economy was at a "turning point" after battling through a period of weakness.

'Turning point': Is Germany's ailing economy on the road to recovery?

Output is expected to expand 0.3 percent this year, the economy ministry said, up from a prediction of 0.2 percent in February.

The slightly rosier picture comes after improvements in key indicators — from factory output to business activity — boosted hopes a recovery may be getting under way.

The German economy shrank slightly last year, hit by soaring inflation, a manufacturing slowdown and weakness in trading partners, and has acted as a major drag on the 20-nation eurozone.

But releasing its latest projections, the economy ministry said in a statement there were growing indications of a “turning point”.

“Signs of an economic upturn have increased significantly, especially in recent weeks,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.

The ministry also cut its forecast for inflation this year to 2.4 percent, from a previous prediction of 2.8 percent, and sees the figure falling below two percent next year.

READ ALSO: Can Germany revive its struggling economy?

“The fall in inflation will lead to consumer demand — people have more money in their wallets again, and will spend this money,” said Habeck.

“So purchasing power is increasing, real wages are rising and this will contribute to a domestic economic recovery.”

Energy prices — which surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had also fallen and supply chain woes had eased, he added.

Several months ago there had been expectations of a strong rebound in 2024, with forecasts of growth above one percent, but these were dialled back at the start of the year as the economy continued to languish.

‘Germany has fallen behind’

But improving signs have fuelled hopes the lumbering economy — while not about to break into a sprint — may at least be getting back on its feet.

On Wednesday a closely-watched survey from the Ifo institute showed business sentiment rising for a third consecutive month in April, and more strongly than expected.

A key purchasing managers’ index survey this week showed that business activity in Germany had picked up.

And last week the central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast the economy would expand slightly in the first quarter, dodging a recession, after earlier predicting a contraction.

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) presents the latest economic forecasts at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday, April 24th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Despite the economy’s improving prospects, growth of 0.3 percent is still slower than other developed economies and below past rates, and officials fret it is unlikely to pick up fast in the years ahead.

Habeck has repeatedly stressed solutions are needed for deep-rooted problems facing Germany, from an ageing population to labour shortages and a transition towards greener industries that is moving too slowly.

“Germany has fallen behind other countries in terms of competitiveness,” he said. “We still have a lot to do — we have to roll up our sleeves.”

READ ALSO: Which German companies are planning to cut jobs?

Already facing turbulence from pandemic-related supply chain woes, the German economy’s problems deepened dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed supplies of gas, hitting the country’s crucial manufacturers hard.

While the energy shock has faded, continued weakness in trading partners such as China, widespread strikes in recent months and higher eurozone interest rates have all prolonged the pain.

The European Central Bank has signalled it could start cutting borrowing costs in June, which would boost the eurozone.

But Habeck stressed that care was still needed as, despite the expectations of imminent easing, “tight monetary policy has not yet been lifted.”

In addition, disagreements in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party ruling coalition are hindering efforts to reignite growth, critics say.

This week the pro-business FDP party, a coalition partner, faced an angry backlash from Scholz’s SPD when it presented a 12-point plan for an “economic turnaround”, including deep cuts to state benefits.

Christian Lindner, the fiscally hawkish FDP finance minister, welcomed signs of “stabilisation” in the economic forecasts but stressed that projected medium-term growth was “too low to sustainably finance our state”.

“There are no arguments for postponing the economic turnaround,” he added.

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