SHARE
COPY LINK

POLITICS

Spain’s Conservatives thrash Socialists in Andalusia’s regional election

Spain's main opposition Popular Party secured a landslide win in a regional election in Andalusia on Sunday, dealing a blow to Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez ahead of a national vote expected at the end of 2023.

Spain's Conservatives thrash Socialists in Andalusia's regional election
Partido Popular (PP) candidate for the Andalusian regional election Juanma Moreno gestures as he delivers a speech during a meeting following the Andalusian regional elections, in Seville on June 19, 2022. (Photo by CRISTINA QUICLER / AFP)

The conservative Popular Party (PP) won 58 seats in the 109-seat Andalusian regional parliament, which will allow it to govern alone in Spain’s most populous region, near final results showed.

That is more than double the 26 seats it won in the last election in 2018 when it ousted the Socialists from office from the southern region, a longtime stronghold for the party.

The Socialists captured 30 seats, its worst ever result in the region which is home to some 8.5 million people — almost a fifth of Spain’s population.

That is down from 33 in the last election in 2018 when they were ousted from power in the region by the PP in the wake of a scandal over the misuse of public funds.

The Socialists had governed Andalusia without interruption since 1982 when the region government was established.

“This victory is that of moderation and of another way of doing politics,” said the PP’s number two, Cuca Gamarra.

This is the Socialists’ third consecutive regional election loss to the PP after votes in Madrid in May 2021 and Castilla y Leon in February.

Sánchez’s leftist coalition government has been struggling to deal with the economic fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has fuelled inflation worldwide, especially through increasing energy prices.

‘Severe blow’

Losing in Andalusia would be a “severe blow” for the Socialists and would mean “Sánchez might face an uphill battle to get re-elected” next year, Antonio Barroso, an analyst at political consultancy Teneo, said before of the election.

“The PP seems to be gaining increasing momentum, and voter concerns about inflation might only make it more challenging for Sanchez to sell his government’s achievements in the next legislative election,” he added.

Spain’s inflation rate hit 8.7 percent in May, its highest level in decades.

Sánchez’s government has rolled out a swathe of measures to help consumers, including a subsidy on fuel prices at the pump, an increase in the minimum wage, direct grants to truck drivers and financial support for some farmers.

The election outcome frees the PP from the need to govern in alliance with far-right party Vox, which won 14 seats.

Until now, Vox has supported the PP in Andalusia but from outside government.

But it had warned during the campaign that if the PP once again needed its support to govern, it would demand that it enters into government this time around.

The PP has governed Andalusia since 2018 in a coalition with smaller centre-right party Ciudadanos which did not win a single seat.

‘Dream come true’

During the campaign the head of the PP in Andalusia, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, had urged voters to deliver him a “strong” government that is not “weighed down” by Vox.

“This is a dream come true,” he told reporters after the election results were announced.

Vox earlier this year entered a regional government for the first time since Spain returned to democracy in the 1970s in the Castilla and León region in a coalition with the PP.

Any deal with Vox in Andalusia would have complicated efforts by the PP’s new national leader, Alberto Nunez Feijoo, to project a more moderate image.

The PP has sought to present itself in Andalusia as a centrist “sensible alternative, an effort to present itself as an option from the centre,” University of Granada political science professor Oscar Garcia Luengo told AFP.

The strategy won the PP one million new voters, including 300,000 who voted for Sánchez in the last national election in 2019, Narciso Michavila, head of GAD3 pollsters, told daily ABC.

Member comments

Log in here to leave a comment.
Become a Member to leave a comment.
For members

POLITICS

What will Spain’s PM do next after resignation threat?

Sánchez's shock threat of resignation after a dubious corruption probe into his wife has kicked off a period of political uncertainty. What card will the Spanish PM play next according to the experts, or is he truly planning to step down?

What will Spain's PM do next after resignation threat?

Pedro Sánchez, in office since 2018, wrote in a four-page letter posted on social media on Wednesday that he would suspend public duties while he “reflects” on whether he wants to continue leading the government.

The Socialist leader denounced “the seriousness of the attacks” against him and his wife, saying it was part of a campaign of “harassment” waged by the right and far right who “do not accept the election results”.

READ ALSO: Who is Begoña Gómez? Spanish PM’s partner thrust into spotlight

Sánchez, an expert in political survival who has made a career out of taking political gambles, said he would announce his decision on Monday.

Some analysts said he could decide to stay on, with this move aimed at rallying support and regaining the initiative in the face of the right-wing opposition at a time of extreme polarisation in Spanish politics.

“Sánchez is a political animal,” said Oriol Bartomeus, a political scientist at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, adding “he has decided to go on the attack” to try to “change the rules of the debate”.

Paloma Román, a political scientist at Madrid’s Complutense University, said Sánchez had “slammed his fist on the table” as part of a “strategy aimed at putting the spotlight where he wants it”.

Sánchez could file a confidence motion in parliament to show that he and his minority government are still supported by a majority of lawmakers in parliament.

Catalan separatist leader Carles Puigdemont, whose JxCat party is an unpredictable ally of the government, has urged Sánchez to pick this option.

READ ALSO: What happens and who takes over if Spain’s Prime Minister resigns?

For the confidence motion to succeed, Sánchez would just need the backing of a simple majority in the assembly and most of the parties which prop up his minority government have already shown their unconditional support.

Catalan separatist party ERC said it would vote in favour of a confidence motion while hard-left party Podemos, which has clashed with Sánchez in the past, blasted attacks by “the political, media and judicial right” on the prime minister and the left in general.

While the conservative opposition has accused Sánchez of playing the victim to rally support, analysts said the possibility that he will resign cannot be completely ruled out.

“Sánchez’s closest advisers and the leadership of the Socialist party will probably spend the coming days trying to convince him to stay,” said Teneo analyst Antonio Barroso.

“The fact that the prime minister allegedly did not consult any of his advisers when drafting the letter suggests personal reasons might be his main motivation. This makes Sánchez’s decision particularly hard to predict.”

If Sánchez does step down, the Socialist party could propose that parliament appoint someone else as head of the government, with Budget Minister María Jesús Montero, who also serves as deputy prime minister, touted as a likely contender.

But Barroso said it “would probably be hard for Montero to cobble together a majority” in Spain’s highly fractured parliament.

Sánchez could instead resign and call snap elections but he would not be able to do so before May 29 since a year must pass between consecutive dissolutions of parliament.

With the Socialists trailing the main opposition conservative Popular Party in opinion polls, this is a risky strategy, although analysts said Sánchez may bet that leftist voters will be galvanised by the controversy sparked by his resignation.

READ ALSO: Spanish prosecutors question credibility of corruption probe against PM’s wife

SHOW COMMENTS