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ANGELA MERKEL

ANALYSIS: Are Germans questioning Merkel’s legacy?

In her first major speech since leaving office, Angela Merkel called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “barbaric.” But the former Chancellor has been criticised for enabling Vladimir Putin while in office. Will German public opinion on Merkel turn?

Olaf Scholz and Angela Merkel
Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) hands flowers to former chancellor Angela Merkel as she leaves office. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

The same week she left office this past December, Angela Merkel was Germany’s most popular politician. Leaving with flowers and a 68 percent approval rating, she was one of the few politicians – in any country ever – to successfully engineer a graceful exit from politics on her own terms.

Six months on, Christian Democrat Merkel has mostly kept quiet. On June 1st though, she finally gave her first public speech since leaving the Chancellery. Speaking at a farewell event for the President of the German Trade Union Confederation (DGB), Merkel came out in support of the SPD-led coalition government’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as the international efforts the US, NATO, G7, and UN are taking to stop Russia’s “barbaric” war.

“My solidarity goes to Ukraine, which has been attacked and invaded by Russia, and to supporting their right to self-defence,” she said. “We should never take peace and freedom for granted.”

Ukraine criticises Merkel’s record

Merkel left office telling Germans to expect a period of silence from her. She maintained she wouldn’t be taking many speaking engagements for a while and would instead focus on writing a memoir of her key political decisions. True to the understated and humble style both Germans and foreigners know her for, she maintained she would mostly write it herself, without a ghostwriter, with help only from her longtime assistant Beate Baumann.

Angela Merkel (CDU) attends a vote to elect the new German President in Feburary in Berlin

Angela Merkel (CDU) attends a vote to elect the new German President in Feburary in Berlin. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Christophe Gateau

Before her speech, she made just one short public intervention, defending her decision to keep Ukraine and Georgia out of NATO during a summit in April 2008. That decision is just one of many German choices Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says emboldened Russian President Vladimir Putin to invade his country. Zelensky has levelled sharp criticism at Merkel personally, for everything from her NATO decision to her support for Nord Stream 2, the now cancelled pipeline that would have delivered Russian gas directly to Germany.

“I invite Ms. Merkel and Mr. Sarkozy to visit Bucha and see what the policy of concessions to Russia has led to in the last 14 years,” he said in April, referring to the systematic massacres Russian soldiers conducted in a town near Kyiv.

READ ALSO: Clouds over Merkel’s legacy as Russian invasion lays flaws bare

German Public cools on Merkel’s policies

While there’s no indication in polls conducted so far that Germans blame Merkel for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, recent surveys show that many now support reversing some of her most key decisions.

During Merkel’s tenure, Germany became dependent on Russia for over half its natural gas imports. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline she supported, if it did become operational, would likely have only added to that dependence. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, ordinary Germans were generally in agreement, with 60 percent supporting Nord Stream 2’s completion. But more than 75 percent now say they want independence from Russian energy, either immediately or step-by-step over the next few months.

Beyond Russia, the German public now seems to want a more distant relationship with another authoritarian country Merkel tried to build closer economic ties with – 83 percent of Germans want the country to gradually become less economically dependent on China.

READ ALSO: An era ends: How will Germany and the world remember the Merkel years?

Merkel hasn’t yet set a release date for her book, but as Russia wages war in Ukraine, a sizeable number of Germans now look prepared to break with some of her most consequential decisions. 

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ECONOMY

‘Turning point’: Is Germany’s ailing economy on the road to recovery?

The German government slightly increased its 2024 growth forecast Wednesday, saying there were signs Europe's beleaguered top economy was at a "turning point" after battling through a period of weakness.

'Turning point': Is Germany's ailing economy on the road to recovery?

Output is expected to expand 0.3 percent this year, the economy ministry said, up from a prediction of 0.2 percent in February.

The slightly rosier picture comes after improvements in key indicators — from factory output to business activity — boosted hopes a recovery may be getting under way.

The German economy shrank slightly last year, hit by soaring inflation, a manufacturing slowdown and weakness in trading partners, and has acted as a major drag on the 20-nation eurozone.

But releasing its latest projections, the economy ministry said in a statement there were growing indications of a “turning point”.

“Signs of an economic upturn have increased significantly, especially in recent weeks,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.

The ministry also cut its forecast for inflation this year to 2.4 percent, from a previous prediction of 2.8 percent, and sees the figure falling below two percent next year.

READ ALSO: Can Germany revive its struggling economy?

“The fall in inflation will lead to consumer demand — people have more money in their wallets again, and will spend this money,” said Habeck.

“So purchasing power is increasing, real wages are rising and this will contribute to a domestic economic recovery.”

Energy prices — which surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had also fallen and supply chain woes had eased, he added.

Several months ago there had been expectations of a strong rebound in 2024, with forecasts of growth above one percent, but these were dialled back at the start of the year as the economy continued to languish.

‘Germany has fallen behind’

But improving signs have fuelled hopes the lumbering economy — while not about to break into a sprint — may at least be getting back on its feet.

On Wednesday a closely-watched survey from the Ifo institute showed business sentiment rising for a third consecutive month in April, and more strongly than expected.

A key purchasing managers’ index survey this week showed that business activity in Germany had picked up.

And last week the central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast the economy would expand slightly in the first quarter, dodging a recession, after earlier predicting a contraction.

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) presents the latest economic forecasts at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday, April 24th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Despite the economy’s improving prospects, growth of 0.3 percent is still slower than other developed economies and below past rates, and officials fret it is unlikely to pick up fast in the years ahead.

Habeck has repeatedly stressed solutions are needed for deep-rooted problems facing Germany, from an ageing population to labour shortages and a transition towards greener industries that is moving too slowly.

“Germany has fallen behind other countries in terms of competitiveness,” he said. “We still have a lot to do — we have to roll up our sleeves.”

READ ALSO: Which German companies are planning to cut jobs?

Already facing turbulence from pandemic-related supply chain woes, the German economy’s problems deepened dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed supplies of gas, hitting the country’s crucial manufacturers hard.

While the energy shock has faded, continued weakness in trading partners such as China, widespread strikes in recent months and higher eurozone interest rates have all prolonged the pain.

The European Central Bank has signalled it could start cutting borrowing costs in June, which would boost the eurozone.

But Habeck stressed that care was still needed as, despite the expectations of imminent easing, “tight monetary policy has not yet been lifted.”

In addition, disagreements in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party ruling coalition are hindering efforts to reignite growth, critics say.

This week the pro-business FDP party, a coalition partner, faced an angry backlash from Scholz’s SPD when it presented a 12-point plan for an “economic turnaround”, including deep cuts to state benefits.

Christian Lindner, the fiscally hawkish FDP finance minister, welcomed signs of “stabilisation” in the economic forecasts but stressed that projected medium-term growth was “too low to sustainably finance our state”.

“There are no arguments for postponing the economic turnaround,” he added.

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